AFL Betting Thread | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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AFL Betting Thread

Leysy Days

Tiger Legend
Feb 26, 2004
21,442
8,336
im pretty confident we win round 0.

massive cult of personality all summer on the GC.

Tigers essentially recruited for Yze football from 2010,

GC recruited for Hardwick football from 2024.

I get a sense all the GC players are starstruck and think Hardwick is gonna run out and line up on Dusty.

@2.5, its the bet of the season for me, before the season even starts.

Tiges are $2.75 and Shai $201 for Coleman on Pointsbet EZ.
 
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Leysy Days

Tiger Legend
Feb 26, 2004
21,442
8,336
these odds are rubbish leysy

if you believe we can make the 8, as I do,

means you believe we can win 13 times. $5 for 13 wins?

shouldn't be hard to craft 20's strategically, even with cover and caution, out of 13 wins.

you'lle get halfway to $5 just on the R0 win

anticipate a patch of form and a block of games and all-up 3-4 wins in a row, and there's $6-$8, maybe $10

$hai for the Coleman @ 150's is my best bet. 2024 probably his peak (dusty '17) and he could kick 80 from the back pocket.

He'd win the Brownlow too, if the umpires understood footy.

Yeah maybe re: getting better odds backing us throughout the year.

Interesting year for us. We are an injury or two to the wrong player away from bottom four ILO but if our stars stay fit we could surprise.

Reckon Curnow is a cracking bet can get $7 if shop around (should be half that quote - only injury prevents him).

Usually hate multis but after a bit of fun for the year anchored around that bet. And bored so wanted to kick this thread back off. :D
 
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Leysy Days

Tiger Legend
Feb 26, 2004
21,442
8,336
@Leysy Days Hawks unders interest you?

Nah, put a line through the Hawks last year and they surprised.

8.5 win line this year. They won 7 in 23' and have boosted the forward half in the off-season.

Couldn't confidently predict they only win one game more. Pass.

Sounds like you're doubting them?
 

eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
21,545
26,115
Interesting year for us. We are an injury or two to the wrong player away from bottom four ILO but if our stars stay fit we could surprise.

indeed. last year I thought Martin Lynch Bolton. FF line wins the flag with Tarranto and hopper added to the guts.

take lynchy and hopper out and we saw what happene.

our best can win the 24 flag,

but requires a lot of luck.
 

Scoop

Tiger Legend
Dec 8, 2004
25,012
14,278
Nah, put a line through the Hawks last year and they surprised.

8.5 win line this year. They won 7 in 23' and have boosted the forward half in the off-season.

Couldn't confidently predict they only win one game more. Pass.

Sounds like you're doubting them?
No Blank, No DGB, a bloke at full back who hans't played before, their best mid (Day) out the first month, best small forward (Moore) with glanduar.

I reckon they start off real slow. Essendon, Melbourne, Geelong, Collingwood and Gold Coast first five. If they don't bank Essendon, they could go into the Gold Coast game (away) 0-4. Tough start with blokes already out. If they are 0-5. DO they win 9 of the next 18?

If Mitch Lewis goes down they're cooked. Still on target long term but this year could be a right off.
 

MD Jazz

Don't understand football? Talk to the hand.
Feb 3, 2017
13,526
14,061
No Blank, No DGB, a bloke at full back who hans't played before, their best mid (Day) out the first month, best small forward (Moore) with glanduar.

I reckon they start off real slow. Essendon, Melbourne, Geelong, Collingwood and Gold Coast first five. If they don't bank Essendon, they could go into the Gold Coast game (away) 0-4. Tough start with blokes already out. If they are 0-5. DO they win 9 of the next 18?

If Mitch Lewis goes down they're cooked. Still on target long term but this year could be a right off.
Good points. Newcombe important as well, might find a bit more time put into him after his super year. Can also see them perhaps taking half a step back after an impressive year last year.

It doesn't necessarily stand out as a real value bet.

Tigers for the 8 @ $5 appears overs.
 
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Leysy Days

Tiger Legend
Feb 26, 2004
21,442
8,336
No Blank, No DGB, a bloke at full back who hans't played before, their best mid (Day) out the first month, best small forward (Moore) with glanduar.

I reckon they start off real slow. Essendon, Melbourne, Geelong, Collingwood and Gold Coast first five. If they don't bank Essendon, they could go into the Gold Coast game (away) 0-4. Tough start with blokes already out. If they are 0-5. DO they win 9 of the next 18?

If Mitch Lewis goes down they're cooked. Still on target long term but this year could be a right off.

Fair points. Be an interesting watch.

They are $8 to lose first five at pointsbet if fancy following that thought in.

Looks fair odds compared to backing opposition every week and rolling it up.
 

Redford

Tiger Legend
Dec 18, 2002
34,916
27,150
Tel Aviv
Tigers for the 8 @ $5 appears overs.
Yeah I dunno about that. LOT of excitement over a match sim right now. Dunno if I like any of the Richmond bets I’m seeing on here. Not that it matters to me, because I never bet on anything Richmond anyway. We go better when I don’t bet on them !
 
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MD Jazz

Don't understand football? Talk to the hand.
Feb 3, 2017
13,526
14,061
Yeah I dunno about that. LOT of excitement over a match sim right now. Dunno if I like any of the Richmond bets I’m seeing on here. Not that it matters to me, because I never bet on anything Richmond anyway. We go better when I don’t bet on them !
Bah humbug pessimist.
 

Redford

Tiger Legend
Dec 18, 2002
34,916
27,150
Tel Aviv
Geelong -13.5 v Arsendon next week. At Geelong.

McKercher $6 for the RS. Barring injury, dunno if we’ll see that price again.
 

Scoop

Tiger Legend
Dec 8, 2004
25,012
14,278
Fair points. Be an interesting watch.

They are $8 to lose first five at pointsbet if fancy following that thought in.

Looks fair odds compared to backing opposition every week and rolling it up.
Reckon that 8 tumbles in, I got on after the convo.

Hawks got flogged by a dogs side with 9 nine walks ups and all rested, nothing long term.

If the Hawks play Scrimshaw as a key back they are cooked.
 

Redford

Tiger Legend
Dec 18, 2002
34,916
27,150
Tel Aviv
Geelong -13.5 v Arsendon next week. At Geelong.

McKercher $6 for the RS. Barring injury, dunno if we’ll see that price again.
Well, there’s no accounting for *** Geelong kicking 11.17 including Hawkins missing from 20m straight in front, blowing the line with 90 seconds left, and Scott taking Dangerfield, Stewart, Duncan, Holmes and Cameron off with 6 minutes to go, to miss by 2 points. Ffs.

Anyway, Redford Returns Pty Ltd does not accept such football incompetence by slugs like Geelong so the team went back in and loaded up on the Dogs last night. Wasnt looking good at half time but they got it done and more than covered Geelong’s unprofessionslism.

Wardlaw with soft tissue niggles already this week. McKercher into $5.50.
 
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eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
21,545
26,115
Well, there’s no accounting for *** Geelong kicking 11.17 including Hawkins missing from 20m straight in front, blowing the line with 90 seconds left, and Scott taking Dangerfield, Stewart, Duncan, Holmes and Cameron off with 6 minutes to go, to miss by 2 points. Ffs.

Anyway, Redford Returns Pty Ltd does not accept such football incompetence by slugs like Geelong so the team went back in and loaded up on the Dogs last night. Wasnt looking good at half time but they got it done and more than covered Geelong’s unprofessionslism.

Wardlaw with soft tissue niggles already this week. McKercher into $5.50.

you don't seriously bet on a practice game,

expecting all things to be equal?

that's like betting on wrestlemania, and being incredulous that The Voluptuous Vulture didn't wear her usual beak.
 
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Redford

Tiger Legend
Dec 18, 2002
34,916
27,150
Tel Aviv
you don't seriously bet on a practice game,

expecting all things to be equal?

that's like betting on wrestlemania, and being incredulous that The Voluptuous Vulture didn't wear her usual beak.
Yes. Absolutely I do. When I see *smile* sides eg Essendon and Hawthorn, there’s only one genuine practice game in the pre season, plus other factors (eg home ground, teams selected etc) …..and the line is silly, yes.

Note: Essendon are often a good watch during the season because as we all know they are chronically overrated every year and often, you’ll see some great opportunities to take them on.
 
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MD Jazz

Don't understand football? Talk to the hand.
Feb 3, 2017
13,526
14,061
Tigers-Saints-Freo straight out treble @ around 20/1

Take the same treble at the line