AFL Betting Thread | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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AFL Betting Thread

I've taken Rich - high, West Coast - Low @ 470/1

that would have to class as one of your good exotic wins wouldnt it Evo
 
Ok, did a footy quad with a mate and this is what we came up with:

Port 73+

Brisbane 25-72

Geelong 1-36, Adelaide 1-36

Saints 13-48, Hawks 1-24

total cost: $60

Its jackpotted this week so definately worth a try.
 
evo said:
impact said:
do you mean price quotes or something else?
I was reffering to the high low quotes.thanks dude.Found them.

I have a bit of an interesting theory in regards to these exotic type bets that I want to work on.

alot of roughies are getting up this season and i reckon there has to be some good ways of taking advantage of it using maths.

for example in the high/low bet there are 240( 16*15)different combinations

I just wanted to check the average payouts on that bet so far and see what it was then see if it's viable to back every combination and still come out ahead over a season.

No not possible evo as TAB unders set their books too high. Probable best theory is to back 50 % (or another figure as you see fit) of the outsiders and leave the top 50% of combinations alone. OR something similar. IF there is 240 combinations no point betting an even spread on $15 shots (which is usually the odds of the shortest combination.)

Another thing to look for is I think last week was the first time since 2003 that the high low double came from the same game, yet these combinations are usually short (see West Coast v Ess tonight.) IF a team wins by 100 it is usually 170 - 70 or thereabouts and the low is often a low scoring slugfest 90 - 50 or so. (Often games invllving Sydney).

As pointd out, both the tigers and the kangas will fancy their chances this week so game could develop into a shootout. I made the error thinking Blues v Swans last week was going to be low scoring slugfest but they both thought they could win playing attacking footy so the game opened up.

Getting the high low double is not as easy as it sounds.
 
the best way with the high low is heaps of research to do with weather, injuries, depth previous scores, match ups, for and against, home or away, scores at the same ground before... ect

then find a mate that is willing and split it up - $2.50 on a 400 still goes very far... watch the footy with mates and in turn enjoy our great game more!!!

Next year im thinking about getting 5 blokes and splitting each high-low bet into 5 that way each bet out of your pocket is worth $1

think about $200 off a $1 bet with like 10 educated bets each week

i would put $10 on for good returns every now and then
 
sounds like west coast are in for a tough one at subi could be the low how funny would that be
 
Leysy Days said:
I've taken Rich - high, West Coast - Low @ 470/1

that would have to class as one of your good exotic wins wouldnt it Evo

jezz this bet looks O.K at qtr time and the storm is brewing and the eagles are struggling to score a point let alone a goal
 
yeah baby!!

hate to brag but...

Got matera at $4.50 the best seagul in the game - he would fight to the death for a chip even if he had one leg!

Brawn at $8.00 - got 19 kicks 11 handballs

Cousins - got 19 kicks 9 handballs he was second

im laughing for my high lows as well, WC only scored 106 (been in the dry would have been differernt) and bombers got an average score of 82

come on sydney or freo score something pathetic l

My research in this case did pay off!!
 
Jackpot footy quad today. Harder to get than racing quads. ME and the boys have thrown ni a few dollars and had a crack

Saints 1-48
Haw 1-24

Bris 37+

Port 13-60

Geel 1-48
Adel 1-12

NOt convinced but gives us something to follow over the weekend.
 
cleaned up on the wet toast under 39. cheers leysy days.top call.I love a bet with logic behind it. :beer

thanks should also go to Mark Alvey,Bolton and Sam Hunt for being absolute chumps. :clap
 
i believe i have snarred the first part of the high-low double

Melbourne - Hawks at 80-1 hawks scored 54 yesterday and will most likley be the lowest

Come on dees gotta hope neitz firers and kicks 10 to beat 140 posted by the brisbane lions last night im very dirty about carltons performance heads will roll!!!! cant leave out brisbanes luck

anyone know what Brisbane - Hawks was paying???
 
i copied this one of yours impact so I have the high so far.
impact said:
highs:

melb, rich, bris

lows:

bombers, swans and freo


im going to link them all

i need freo or sydney to score less than 54-fairly unlikely.
 
jb03 said:
Jackpot footy quad today. Harder to get than racing quads. ME and the boys have thrown ni a few dollars and had a crack

Saints 1-48
Haw 1-24

Bris 37+

Port 13-60

Geel 1-48
Adel 1-12

NOt convinced but gives us something to follow over the weekend.

correct me if im wrong but you only need one of the last two to get it?
 
evo said:
i copied this one of yours impact so I have the high so far.
impact said:
highs:

melb, rich, bris

lows:

bombers, swans and freo


im going to link them all

i need freo or sydney to score less than 54-fairly unlikely.

never right off freo....
 
impact said:
jb03 said:
Jackpot footy quad today. Harder to get than racing quads. ME and the boys have thrown ni a few dollars and had a crack

Saints 1-48
Haw 1-24

Bris 37+

Port 13-60

Geel 1-48
Adel 1-12

NOt convinced but gives us something to follow over the weekend.

correct me if im wrong but you only need one of the last two to get it?

Yep, we jagged it.  Got back $2,100 which I thought was a bit light.  Still $525 back for $60 outlay, so nice profit.  Very lucky with the Port v Bulldogs game.
 
jb03 said:
impact said:
jb03 said:
Jackpot footy quad today. Harder to get than racing quads. ME and the boys have thrown ni a few dollars and had a crack

Saints 1-48
Haw 1-24

Bris 37+

Port 13-60

Geel 1-48
Adel 1-12

NOt convinced but gives us something to follow over the weekend.

correct me if im wrong but you only need one of the last two to get it?

Yep, we jagged it.  Got back $2,100 which I thought was a bit light.  Still $525 back for $60 outlay, so nice profit.  Very lucky with the Port v Bulldogs game.

Well done JB, the return was a bit light considering Port only won by 15. I had Port 73+ so got nowhere near it.
 
evo said:
cleaned up on the wet toast under 39. cheers leysy days.top call.I love a bet with logic behind it. :beer

thanks should also go to Mark Alvey,Bolton and Sam Hunt for being absolute chumps. :clap

no probs Evo, I had a real good crack myself. ($200 @ $2.30)

Then half the profits ($130) on the dogs to win at $4.00
the other half of the profits on the dogs to beat the line at 26.5 pts.

finished with $247 profit for the weeks afl punting, lost a little on my 2 bets on the nags ( McCarthy Bar & Patezza),
but still a good return for the weekend.

Top work there JB, good snare, did pay a little light I thought as well.
 
yeah i didnt do too bad got matera and brawn and nearly got the high-low if only dees didnt kick so inacuratly damn brisbane!!! a little up after the week
 
jb03 said:
I quite like Brisbane to kick the sweep this round at $6.00 Apparently it is p!ssing down in Perth so that may harm the Weales tonight.

Carlton have no one to play on Jon Brown. Only indoor game apart from Rich v Kangas which I wouldn't think would produce the highest score of the round.

I'ver had a blinder of a weekend on the punt. Footy Quad, Bris to kick the sweep (actually got $5.00) and St Basil in the Stradbroke (didn't have enough on of course). IF only every weekend was as such.
 
jb03 said:
jb03 said:
I quite like Brisbane to kick the sweep this round at $6.00 Apparently it is p!ssing down in Perth so that may harm the Weales tonight.

Carlton have no one to play on Jon Brown. Only indoor game apart from Rich v Kangas which I wouldn't think would produce the highest score of the round.

I'ver had a blinder of a weekend on the punt. Footy Quad, Bris to kick the sweep (actually got $5.00) and St Basil in the Stradbroke (didn't have enough on of course). IF only every weekend was as such.

Im going to put some more money in this friday night and link Saints, Port as HIGH and Hawks, Carlton and collingwood as LOW