AFL Betting Thread | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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AFL Betting Thread

spook

Kick the f*ckin' goal
Jun 18, 2007
21,912
26,416
Melbourne
easy said:
Except we do have lynch cotchin martin nankervis edwards rioli vlastuin prestia lambert higlet.

They will find centre clearances difficult with mumford playing in a wheelchair.

Tigers in a season defining tight one.

I find the $10 for us to win the flag appealing.
We're also likely to have most of Short, Ellis, Markov, Ross, Balta, Bolton. And no Grimes. Wait a week.
 
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easy_tiger

Guest
spook said:
We're also likely to have most of Short, Ellis, Markov, Ross, Balta, Bolton. And no Grimes. Wait a week.

Oleg is my canary in the coal mine currently.

But im pretty sure he wont play.

We are def under the odds, id want $4 to beat gws, so wont be betting, but have that intangible winning feeling.
 

MD Jazz

Don't understand football? Talk to the hand.
Feb 3, 2017
13,329
13,709
easy said:
but have that intangible winning feeling.

So do I but reckon we are a little biased.

What do the age/games experience numbers say LTRTR? IIRC when the tigers are the younger side we have a pretty poor record? Or is it when we are the more experienced side we have something like a 90+% strike rate under dimma?
 
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easy_tiger

Guest
MD Jazz said:
So do I but reckon we are a little biased.

FwIW, i had that intangible losing feeling before last week.

But i think ill punt horses instead of men this weekend
 

spook

Kick the f*ckin' goal
Jun 18, 2007
21,912
26,416
Melbourne
easy said:
Oleg is my canary in the coal mine currently.

But im pretty sure he wont play.

We are def under the odds, id want $4 to beat gws, so wont be betting, but have that intangible winning feeling.
If Oleg was the right choice to play last week, he's the right choice this week. First game since 2017, against the red-hot flag faves, without our two most experienced defenders, I'd cut him some slack.

I hope your feeling's right. Would be a huge win.

MD Jazz said:
So do I but reckon we are a little biased.

What do the age/games experience numbers say LTRTR? IIRC when the tigers are the younger side we have a pretty poor record? Or is it when we are the more experienced side we have something like a 90+% strike rate under dimma?
Both, from memory.
 
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easy_tiger

Guest
spook said:
I hope your feeling's right. Would be a huge win.
Both, from memory.

The toughest part of this season, punting wise, is picking the bottom of the market for tigers flag odds.

Currently $10. Dont think its bottomed yet. Plausible we get $15 while Jack is out. If we can be 8:6 at the bye, and no further big injury, well monster the comp on the run home
 

spook

Kick the f*ckin' goal
Jun 18, 2007
21,912
26,416
Melbourne
MD Jazz said:
5 day break for Cats. Poor recent record against crows. Cats flattered by margin in dees win, their games against Pies was pretty average standard. Not convinced they are any better than last year. Not sure $1.95 is value IMO.

Not that I think the crows are any good, but they will be pretty fired up for this one.
Cats $1.77 now. I move markets like Ace Rothstein. 8-
 

MD Jazz

Don't understand football? Talk to the hand.
Feb 3, 2017
13,329
13,709
spook said:
Cats $1.77 now. I move markets like Ace Rothstein. 8-

You've done a good job. Make some dough on the arbitrage.

Think Adelaide are good value, they are not that bad (even though they were lucky against Syd) nor the cats that good.
 

MD Jazz

Don't understand football? Talk to the hand.
Feb 3, 2017
13,329
13,709
spook said:
Cats $1.77 now. I move markets like Ace Rothstein. 8-

Cats should be further in front. Crows have not recovered from 2017. They really are quite pathetic.
 

spook

Kick the f*ckin' goal
Jun 18, 2007
21,912
26,416
Melbourne
MD Jazz said:
they are not that bad

MD Jazz said:
They really are quite pathetic.
;D

They're no good, Jazz. 2017 was the aberration.

3 points at 3/4 time. Your 5-day break might come into it.

Cats aren't that good, except Tim Kelly is the best player in a team that has Dangerfield, and Jordan Clark would walk onto any half-back-flank in the league (he'd probably run. Can he run!).
 

MD Jazz

Don't understand football? Talk to the hand.
Feb 3, 2017
13,329
13,709
spook said:
;D

They're no good, Jazz. 2017 was the aberration.

3 points at 3/4 time. Your 5-day break might come into it

Yeh, If rather Luke mcguane than Jane jenkins, at least the pencil would give you a contest.

And tex is just an average player. Poor Eddie has carried that forward line but he’s on the decline and Tom Lynch is out of form.

Bryce Gibbs complements tex quite well, an output well below reputation. A B grader at best.

The cats aren’t that good, I’m pretty sure we have them covered.
 

tigerman

It's Tiger Time
Mar 17, 2003
24,150
19,618
Fyfe concussed, Dockers up by a goal at 3/4 time. The Saints are a good live bet to win at $2.40
 
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easy_tiger

Guest
$10 for tigers highest Vic side H&A.

essentially betting against pies and cats, and giving cats an 8 pt start.

I have tigers on 15 wins, and cats on 14, with both losing this week

so its value, but I must admit I haven't got the Kahunas.

Feel like tigers to beat Port @ $3.6 is an opportunity also,

its a must win game that I think the bookies have over reacted on.

full strength, we would be $1.8 favs and I don't reckon we are half as good with the ins and outs.

but again, I don't have the kahunas in these uncertain times.
 
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easy_tiger

Guest
Leysy Days said:
Yeah leysy is holding his nerve on us as well. Likely for one more week.

Ive had a change of heart Leysy.

and its purely on the back of Campbell Brown saying

"Port Adelaide are as certain as Winx this weekend"

I am now almost certain we win.

edit: my initial bullishness was stirred by Campbells 'death, taxes and Port Adelaide' call,

but it growing after seeing the sides. We've gone fast and tough and small.

Port have beaten Melbourne and Carlton (just). Thats BM 64 form and with the big 4, we are Group 1, without, BM 84 I reckon.

will be a very enthusiastic outfit. How many games between Higlet, $hai, Notorius, Rossy, Stackman and Bakes? 35?

I really think we win this at $4.

Im backing us.