• PRE should be functioning as per usual. Please email admin@puntroadend.com to report anything odd that is occuring over the next few days as we settle a few database issues.

AFL Betting Thread

E

easy_tiger

Guest
tigerman said:
The bloody Golden Eagle has thrown a spanner in the works because i dont what horses are going to go where!!

I've got in early on Verry Elleegant in the Cox Plate, $51, Not sure that she can beat MJ or AQ, but i couldn't knock back those odds.
The golden eagle was conceived as a cynical exercise to try and undermine the cox plate.

Its *smile*ing outrageous. Although i think it will be an afterthought. If you have a cox plate horse you dont usually need the extra couple of million.

I hope Urban Ruler wins the *smile*ing thing and .44 throws tge eagle in sydney harbour on the morning show

Sydney *smile*s

Edit: just realised we are on wrong thread. Sorry
 

Jake

Tiger Superstar
Apr 2, 2005
1,240
34
Tom only $3.50 to kick 5+ this week, $6.00 to kick 6+, the bookie's woke up. Caddy might be an option $5.50 4+goals, they will put a bit of work into Tom this week, Caddy might get off the chain. Is Freo that bad?? $6.00, contested possessions average 21 more the gws, Fyfe back, if they can kick straight who knows?
 

TigerForce

Richmond has a better list.
Apr 26, 2004
48,898
1,190
We've shortened again.

COLLINGWOOD 4.00
GEELONG 5.00
WEST COAST 6.00
RICHMOND 7.00
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY 9.00
ESSENDON 13.00
PORT ADELAIDE 17.00
 

year of the tiger

Tiger Legend
Mar 26, 2008
6,201
466
Tasmania
TigerForce said:
We've shortened again.

COLLINGWOOD 4.00
GEELONG 5.00
WEST COAST 6.00
RICHMOND 7.00
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY 9.00
ESSENDON 13.00
PORT ADELAIDE 17.00
How can the pies be $4 and the weagles be $6

The pie hype is in full swing
 
E

easy_tiger

Guest
year of the tiger said:
How can the pies be $4 and the weagles be $6

The pie hype is in full swing
part hype, part pies backing themselves I think.

Im very comfortable with Collingwood fans giving me their money.
 
E

easy_tiger

Guest
I think Port at $3.3 are great value tonight.

won 4 of last 5 (3 in Melbourne) over pies.

A lot of their forward structure works around Cox, who isnt there. Reid is the oldest slowest bloke in the comp who will be exposed, and

Pies only scalp was us when we were still in Rance shock.

They aren't that good.
 

Ian4

BIN MAN!
May 6, 2004
19,504
405
Melbourne
TigerForce said:
We've shortened again.

COLLINGWOOD 4.00
GEELONG 5.00
WEST COAST 6.00
RICHMOND 7.00
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY 9.00
ESSENDON 13.00
PORT ADELAIDE 17.00
i think all of those numbers are too short. so far there is no standout favourite. But in saying that, there are probably only 5 teams in it (us, Collingwood, West Coast, Geelong and GWS). But even then I doubt Geelong can sutain it and West Coast are showing big signs of a hangover.

easy said:
I think Port at $3.3 are great value tonight.

won 4 of last 5 (3 in Melbourne) over pies.

A lot of their forward structure works around Cox, who isnt there. Reid is the oldest slowest bloke in the comp who will be exposed, and

Pies only scalp was us when we were still in Rance shock.

They aren't that good.
tipping has been so hard this year. i think collingwood easy, but i'm not willing to put my money where my mouth is on this as there have been so many upsets.
 
E

easy_tiger

Guest
It probably wont come as a surprise to you blokes,

that I did the ladder predictor yesterday,

and have Tigers winning the minor premiership,

with WC and GWS on our hammer,

but 3 games clear of Collingwood and Geelong.

So I feel duty bound to point out two little gems in the market

1. Richmond Highest Vic side H&A @ $17, and

2. Richmond V WC gf quin @$81

I took the tigers V GWS quit preseason at $35 I think?
 

TigerForce

Richmond has a better list.
Apr 26, 2004
48,898
1,190
We're right up your stinking arse Chokers!!

Round 9
GEELONG 3.50
COLLINGWOOD 3.75
RICHMOND 7.00
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY 7.50
WEST COAST 8.00
ADELAIDE 21.00
BRISBANE 26.00
ESSENDON 34.00
 
E

easy_tiger

Guest
Was too slow to take my own advice,

but still got $41 on the WC V Tigers GF QUIN.

It almost seems as if the bookies want to shovel money into my safe?
 

scottyturnerscurse

Tiger Champion
Apr 29, 2006
4,140
201
easy said:
Was too slow to take my own advice,

but still got $41 on the WC V Tigers GF QUIN.

It almost seems as if the bookies want to shovel money into my safe?

Betting on the quinella never presents value because of the risk your selections end up on the same side of the draw and meeting in a prelim.

But does this stop me betting on it? Of course not, easy. I'm all over Rich-GWS because I like shoveling money into my bookie's safe.
 
E

easy_tiger

Guest
scottyturnerscurse said:
Betting on the quinella never presents value because of the risk your selections end up on the same side of the draw and meeting in a prelim.

But does this stop me betting on it? Of course not, easy. I'm all over Rich-GWS because I like shoveling money into my bookie's safe.
yeah but you get a premium on the quins for that reason

tiger are $4 to make the gf and WC are $5 and the quin is twice those two multiplied.

you overcome the 2 halved draw by taking a few of them, and at 40-1, you can afford to

I reckon once you have identified the 4-5 sides that are likely to make up the top 4 (cats, pies, wc, gws, tigers for me),

you get anomalous value on the quinellas. I reckon the bookies algorithms struggle with them a bit.

I also like the option the quins give you to back against yourself in the 2nd prelim, one your first leg get into the GF.

Im laying cats and don't see any value on the pies right now. I think the pies are a contender, but Ill wait for a slump and get 25-1 on that quin at some stage.

My algorithm works backwards, as ive said before.

I probably need 10 grand to live it up in Tigerland throughout the last fortnight in September, so I pick off the quins as the prices and my needs collide ;D

do yourself a favour. take enough of the 40's on tigers/wc to keep your options open.