Coronavirus

[MD Jazz]

I'm not dismissing this, but a fortnight is a decade in carona time. Has been a retreat from this. It was jumped on by politicians wanting to open things up, the US went pretty lecturn-thumpy on it, totally understandable, thats politics, embrace any data that supports your posi, ignore or deny any data that doesn't. I was just reading yesterday that Japan suicide rate has, quote, 'plummeted' as a result of lockdown. Seems a lot of people are liking the break from the rat race and slow time with family.

Yep, you are right. For the short-term anyway.

Suicide rate in Japan declines amid COVID-19 lockdown

Japan’s suicide rate has dropped by 20% last month, compared to April 2019, amid the lockdown measures imposed in the country.

newsinfo.inquirer.net

 

[tigersnake]

Yep, you are right. For the short-term anyway.

Suicide rate in Japan declines amid COVID-19 lockdown

Japan’s suicide rate has dropped by 20% last month, compared to April 2019, amid the lockdown measures imposed in the country.

newsinfo.inquirer.net

It will be very interesting to see how this pans out once we know more and analyse the data. Will people who struggle balance out people who thrive (in terms of the raw number I mean)? Is it a cultural thing? Japan having a brutal rat race and all that. The retreat from the original simple proposition has been pretty conspicuous though IMO.

 

[MD Jazz]

It will be very interesting to see how this pans out once we know more and analyse the data. Will people who struggle balance out people who thrive (in terms of the raw number I mean)? Is it a cultural thing? Japan having a brutal rat race and all that. The retreat from the original simple proposition has been pretty conspicuous though IMO.

Yeh, there's no simple answers or solutions in any of this.

 

[TigerPort]

Yeh, there's no simple answers or solutions in any of this.

Except let everyone old or weak die from coronavirus

 

[spook]

The faux concern from the right over possible suicides cites the economic impact of shutdown. It must therefore follow that any removal or halving of Jobkeeper/seeker will contribute to any increase in suicides. Many jobs simply won't be there, at least in the short to medium term. We are still yet to hear anything from the foghorns about the 2000+ people who killed themselves after receiving robodebt notices.

Here's a comprehensive article from the Financial Times - hardly a lefty blog- about Trump's disastrous mismanagement. Read wider, friends. Murdoch rags are propaganda, not news.

Inside Trump’s coronavirus meltdown | Free to read

What went wrong in the president’s first real crisis — and what does it mean for the US?

www.ft.com

 

[Brodders17]

Read a couple weeks ago that they're burying them five to a grave in the jungle because they can't keep up any other way.

at least they are NOT (edit) being filled by people committing suicide...

 

[spook]

Economists back social distancing 34-9 in new poll

The economists who support the use of social distancing measures to slow the spread of COVID-19 are not only in the majority, they are also more certain of their opinions than those who do not.

theconversation.com

"...there is no long-run trade off between public health and the health of the economy in responding to the COVID-19 crisis,” he says.

Lifting restrictions “risks the worst of all worlds, compromising our public health goals and at the same time not getting a proper economic recovery”.

Stefanie Schurer quotes a German proverb: better a painful ending than an endless pain.

Lifting restrictions “worst of all worlds”
She says a short and medium term failure to eliminate, or at least slow down, the spread of COVID-19 would entail significant longer-run political, economic and social costs.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Well worth a read as people head out again..

The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them

Please read this link to learn about the author and background to these posts. It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope can also be predicted. We have robust data from...

www.erinbromage.com

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Well worth a read as people head out again..

The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them

Please read this link to learn about the author and background to these posts. It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope can also be predicted. We have robust data from...

www.erinbromage.com

I'm disappointed we didn't lock down hard enough to eliminate it and suspect it will now spread farther than before. Outspoken naysayers have led to the handbrake being released early, even as hotspots are flaring up around Melbourne. Now we're on the back foot and reactionary, like the bushfire approach.

 

[MD Jazz]

I'm disappointed we didn't lock down hard enough to eliminate it and suspect it will now spread farther than before. Outspoken naysayers have led to the handbrake being released early, even as hotspots are flaring up around Melbourne. Now we're on the back foot and reactionary, like the bushfire approach.

You obviously still have a job. As I imagine do 99% of those upset about lifting any restrictions. Personally, I am far better off if restrictions stay, both financially and health risk wise, but I clearly have a more socialist outlook than most of PRE.

One way around keeping things locked down could be to increase taxes to those still working? Some sort of temporary budget repair levy to assist in funding jobkeeper and jobseeker for longer? I would happily support that.

 

[MD Jazz]

Economists back social distancing 34-9 in new poll

The economists who support the use of social distancing measures to slow the spread of COVID-19 are not only in the majority, they are also more certain of their opinions than those who do not.

theconversation.com

From the same article.

Yet the costs of restrictions are growing Craig Emerson says keeping R below 1 should be merely a “guiding principle” rather than a binding constraint. “The longer the restrictions are in place, the greater will be the likelihood of links being broken - leading to severe economic hardship, business failures, mortgage defaults, domestic violence, mental health problems, suicide and long-term unemployment, particularly for the young,” he says. Gigi Foster says, in retrospect, the best thing for Australia to have done would have been to have never had an enforced lockdown, but to have encouraged people to continue to behave as normally as possible while taking precautions, as in Sweden, allowing young and healthy people to acquire immunity in order to protect more vulnerable people, in this and in future waves of the virus. She suspects the costs of continued restrictions that keep R below 1 outweigh the benefits, including benefits measured in quality-adjusted life years saved.

 

[spook]

From the same article.

Yet the costs of restrictions are growing Craig Emerson says keeping R below 1 should be merely a “guiding principle” rather than a binding constraint. “The longer the restrictions are in place, the greater will be the likelihood of links being broken - leading to severe economic hardship, business failures, mortgage defaults, domestic violence, mental health problems, suicide and long-term unemployment, particularly for the young,” he says. Gigi Foster says, in retrospect, the best thing for Australia to have done would have been to have never had an enforced lockdown, but to have encouraged people to continue to behave as normally as possible while taking precautions, as in Sweden, allowing young and healthy people to acquire immunity in order to protect more vulnerable people, in this and in future waves of the virus. She suspects the costs of continued restrictions that keep R below 1 outweigh the benefits, including benefits measured in quality-adjusted life years saved.

There's much less confidence in the minority saying we'd be better off re-opening. As for quality-adjusted life years ahead, not only is it mumbo-jumbo, we have no idea of the long-term health impacts of having had this thing, or if that even grants you immunity.

You obviously still have a job. As I imagine do 99% of those upset about lifting any restrictions. Personally, I am far better off if restrictions stay, both financially and health risk wise, but I clearly have a more socialist outlook than most of PRE.

One way around keeping things locked down could be to increase taxes to those still working? Some sort of temporary budget repair levy to assist in funding jobkeeper and jobseeker for longer? I would happily support that.

Australia's debt ratio coming out of this will still be better than the USA's or UK's were going in. We don't have a debt problem, we have an ideology problem.

 

[kyuss]

You obviously still have a job. As I imagine do 99% of those upset about lifting any restrictions. Personally, I am far better off if restrictions stay, both financially and health risk wise, but I clearly have a more socialist outlook than most of PRE.

One way around keeping things locked down could be to increase taxes to those still working? Some sort of temporary budget repair levy to assist in funding jobkeeper and jobseeker for longer? I would happily support that.

I have also been working the whole way through. Just a suggestion, but if it meant not going into a massive recession i would happily giveup my tax return this year. It will be a strain on me but desperate times....

 

[AngryAnt]

Another way to look at suicides and other deaths - if we open up, then have to lockdown again because of viral outbreak, what will that do to rates of suicide/domestic violence etc etc? It's not as simple as saying lockdown or full-steam ahead.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

You obviously still have a job. As I imagine do 99% of those upset about lifting any restrictions. Personally, I am far better off if restrictions stay, both financially and health risk wise, but I clearly have a more socialist outlook than most of PRE.

One way around keeping things locked down could be to increase taxes to those still working? Some sort of temporary budget repair levy to assist in funding jobkeeper and jobseeker for longer? I would happily support that.

I’m not upset, just wary. There’s a family birthday coming up but we’ll continue to catch up over Zoom.

Suspect we’ll be lumbered with some sort of coronavirus tax to pay for everything anyway, which is a very un-Liberal thing to do.

 

[Tigers of Old]

I'm disappointed we didn't lock down hard enough to eliminate it and suspect it will now spread farther than before. Outspoken naysayers have led to the handbrake being released early, even as hotspots are flaring up around Melbourne. Now we're on the back foot and reactionary, like the bushfire approach.

It does make you wonder. So much sacrifice in isolation to get it down to almost no cases at which point you then open up with the prospect of getting back to square one??
Several states have no recorded cases & haven't for numerous days. I would have thought that was the time to open up for business again.
People will die from these decisions..

 

[Coburgtiger]

It does seem odd. We were so close. Another couple of weeks, we could have got cases down to zero.

 

[MD Jazz]

It does seem odd. We were so close. Another couple of weeks, we could have got cases down to zero.

Isn't that just a guess? NZ are close but still not 14 days at 0. They have 2 reported cases in the last week. You predicting they get to 0 and eradicate it?

 

[MD Jazz]

I'm disappointed we didn't lock down hard enough to eliminate it and suspect it will now spread farther than before. Outspoken naysayers have led to the handbrake being released early, even as hotspots are flaring up around Melbourne. Now we're on the back foot and reactionary, like the bushfire approach.

You do know that was never the strategy communicated by all leaders? And not sure that was the aim of the NZ lockdown from the start either?

Hopefully those with jobs are prepared to carry the tax burden of the unfortunates without.

 

[MD Jazz]

Another way to look at suicides and other deaths - if we open up, then have to lockdown again because of viral outbreak, what will that do to rates of suicide/domestic violence etc etc? It's not as simple as saying lockdown or full-steam ahead.

Who is saying full steam ahead? Who is saying get rid of social distancing? Who is encouraging everyone to forget the rules they have lived under? Haven't heard any of that messaging coming from any leader in Aust.

The messaging has been clear, all it is is a gradual relaxing of the gathering rules. You think they are the reason for the cedar meats fiasco? Or the recent McDonalds cases? Stage 3 or Stage 2 would not have prevented those recent cases. And unless we went to Stage 4 does anyone really think we would have got to 0 for an extended period of time and eradicated the virus. Very easy to argue to wait a little longer, how long? Those cases would have happened.