Coronavirus

[Coburgtiger]

The work of the Victorian State Government, Australian federal government, and Australian people has been herculean to the point of near miraculous to see the outcomes we're seeing.

Unfortunately we're so mired in muck raking as political discourse a lot of us still seem unable to see the forest for the trees.

We are being held up as a positive example. Globally.

And that's not to say the whole thing hasn't sucked. It has. And mistakes have been made a long the way, usually in trying to administer something huge and unprecedented. But we've generally, and consistently put health first. The ethical, and hopefully the long term economic, benefit of this is immense.

See the positives people. It's time to be cautiously optimistic.

 

[DavidSSS]

But they're doing brilliantly, better than anyone else, totally winning, no-one can match them in the USA with the Pres the world needs now and for 4 more years.

Just look at their video:

Couldn't ask for a better government or President, second to none.

DS

 

[DavidSSS]

Quite predictable that the new infection number goes up from a couple of very low days, we still look to be tracking well and the DHHS are now identifying hot spots which is an advance since we had too many cases a week or two ago to be able to do this. Hopefully an indication the case tracking has got better.

Here's what it looks like today:



By the numbers:

Date	New Infections	7 Day trailing ave	5 Day centred Ave	14 Day trailing Ave
17 September 2020​	45​	36.71​	29.00​	45.29​
18 September 2020​	20​	34.57​	23.00​	41.64​
19 September 2020​	13​	30.57​	23.40​	38.14​
20 September 2020​	11​	27.86​	​	36.21​
21 September 2020​	28​	26.29​	​	34.71​

The big drop in the short term (5 day) average has risen a little, showing how it is more volatile, but the 7 and 14 day averages are still tracking down.

DS

 

[mrposhman]

Whilst this sounds strange, number of total cases isn't the number 1 driver at the moment for restriction easing at the end of October (next weeks are a given but really only a token, the big changes come at the end of October).

Below is from Covidlive.com.au and the targets at the end of October are 5 case average and 0 unknown. I think the biggest driver of these 2 stats is most likely the unknown column, ie. they may release restrictions even if average cases are above 5 (much like in NSW) if the number of unknown is very low or zero. As you can see in just a week, that number has nearly halved from 81 to 45 so hopefully we can maintain this trajectory and get very low unknown transmission cases which IMO will prompt the VIC government to relax the average cases target somewhat.

Its always good to look at positive test rates rather than just pure numbers as higher or lower rates of testing will have an impact on underlying issues.

The positive test rate has jumped about a bit over the last week, down to as low as 0.06% but as high as 0.26%. Whats good to see is we are really closing the gaps on the other states in positive test rates (NSW for example are at about 0.03%), last 7 days was 0.19%, 7 days before that was 0.31%, 7 days before that was 0.43%. Still have some way to go but getting there.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Terrifying predictions coming out of the UK. Possibly 50,000 cases a day?

Stark warning for UK if action isn't taken to curb COVID-19 infections

The UK's top government scientists warn the country will have nearly 50,000 new coronavirus cases a day by mid-October if the current infection rate does not drop.

www.abc.net.au

 

[AngryAnt]

Terrifying predictions coming out of the UK. Possibly 50,000 cases a day?

Stark warning for UK if action isn't taken to curb COVID-19 infections

The UK's top government scientists warn the country will have nearly 50,000 new coronavirus cases a day by mid-October if the current infection rate does not drop.

www.abc.net.au

Terrible handling of the situation in the UK. A slow move to restrictions, confusion over a "herd immunity" vs suppression strategy, government ministers and advisers breaking protocols, opening up way too early, mixed messages to the public.

Everything it was possible to do wrong, they've done.

 

[MD Jazz]

Terrible handling of the situation in the UK. A slow move to restrictions, confusion over a "herd immunity" vs suppression strategy, government ministers and advisers breaking protocols, opening up way too early, mixed messages to the public.

Everything it was possible to do wrong, they've done.

Yeh, they are possibly worse than tangerine man in a way. They seemingly had a number of competing strategies and stuffed them all up. Old tangerine man has mostly ignored the issue. But I note he gave himself an A+ for his handling.

 

[tigermike]

But they're doing brilliantly, better than anyone else, totally winning, no-one can match them in the USA with the Pres the world needs now and for 4 more years.

Just look at their video:

Couldn't ask for a better government or President, second to none.

DS

Incredible how they cling to their right to free speech without any accountability for the truth in what they say.
Apart from all his untruthful statements, how can Trump say he has governed honestly when it seems his daughter and son-in-law have had the most influence over him yet they were not elected in 2016?

 

[IanG]

15 new cases 5 death, 14 day average is now below 30.

 

[Ridley]

15 new cases 5 death, 14 day average is now below 30.

Good result but we need to get into single figures so we can hit that 14 day average of 5 cases. It will be tough. After 7 weeks of hard lock down we are still not there. That said I read that 22 of the 28 cases yesterday were in aged care. Only 2 mystery cases overall. And 26 of the 28 cases were in the northern and western suburbs. One case in South Yarra and one in Dandenong. That does seem to point to better control overall.

 

[Tigers of Old]

That said I read that 22 of the 28 cases yesterday were in aged care. Only 2 mystery cases overall. And 26 of the 28 cases were in the northern and western suburbs. One case in South Yarra and one in Dandenong. That does seem to point to better control overall.

That's great news.

 

[DavidSSS]

I suspect they may relax the restrictions if the number is low, the community transmission is either zero or very very close to it and the number of mystery cases is zero or they just haven't chased them up yet.

We seem to be getting down to much better numbers now:



The actual numbers (Vic not Melbourne):

Date	New Infections	7 Day trailing Ave	5 Day Centred Ave	14 Day Trailing Ave
18 September 2020​	20​	34.43​	22.80​	41.57​
19 September 2020​	13​	30.43​	23.40​	38.07​
20 September 2020​	11​	27.71​	17.40​	36.14​
21 September 2020​	28​	26.14​	​	34.64​
22 September 2020​	15​	22.43​	​	30.71​

Getting lower and if we subtract 1.1 (14 day trailing ave for regional Vic) from the 14 day trailing average it dips below 30. I would think the shorter term averages will slow down their fall a bit now as we already have 5-7 days of low numbers. The 14 day average will keep falling as long as the numbers stay where they are.

Hoping one day soon we record less infections in Vic than some other state, that would be when we have got it down to the same level.

Still a mess overseas, US is now over 200,000 deaths, new infection numbers bouncing around but over 50k again on 21 Sept. India is catching the US on infection numbers. Spain, France, UK seeing big rises.

Australia has just over 1,000 cases per million population, the US has just over 21,500 per million.

DS

 

[AngryAnt]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1308145224531808257

 

[MD Jazz]

Australia has just over 1,000 cases per million population, the US has just over 21,500 per million.

DS

In reality we should be comparing VIC as a stand alone state rather than lumping the other states in with us.

VIC has over 3000 cases per million, NSW just over 500. SA/QLD/WA all around the 250 mark.

On your numbers the US has about 7 times the infection rate as VIC. VIC has 6 times the infection rate as NSW. And over 10 times the infection rate of the other states.

So in essence VIC is the "USA" of Aust.

Now that they are down, lets hope we keep the numbers down.

 

[MD Jazz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1308145224531808257

I'm sure part of the plan for this second lot of restrictions was to under promise and over deliver on their easing. It's a good story to tell.

 

[AngryAnt]

I'm sure part of the plan for this second lot of restrictions was to under promise and over deliver on their easing. It's a good story to tell.

Possibly, but this Newspoll was conducted earlier, came out yesterday before Dan said restrictions would be eased.

 

[Baloo]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1308145224531808257

Not really a surprise. Most people I've spoken too have backed the government in. Even though they hate the restrictions they understand it's necessary. One of them was a golfer as well.

 

[Sintiger]

In reality we should be comparing VIC as a stand alone state rather than lumping the other states in with us.

VIC has over 3000 cases per million, NSW just over 500. SA/QLD/WA all around the 250 mark.

On your numbers the US has about 7 times the infection rate as VIC. VIC has 6 times the infection rate as NSW. And over 10 times the infection rate of the other states.

So in essence VIC is the "USA" of Aust.

Now that they are down, lets hope we keep the numbers down.

I think that's sort of right MDJ.
The real numbers matter not just the multiple and the USA is made up of states as well.
There is a point where control is lost and the health system cracks . The USA definitely got to that point in some states which have numbers over over 30,000 per million, so 10-11 times the Victorian rate. There is only one of the US states with an infection number per million comparable to Victoria, and that's Vermont.
This is where is gets really dangerous and whilst Victoria was bad enough and we had some challenges we never lost control, we never had overwhelmed hospitals. Really busy hospitals yes, but coping.

 

[MD Jazz]

One of them was a golfer as well.

Not a serious one.

 

[22nd Man]

Good result but we need to get into single figures so we can hit that 14 day average of 5 cases. It will be tough. After 7 weeks of hard lock down we are still not there. That said I read that 22 of the 28 cases yesterday were in aged care. Only 2 mystery cases overall. And 26 of the 28 cases were in the northern and western suburbs. One case in South Yarra and one in Dandenong. That does seem to point to better control overall.

Where did you see that 22/28...number. Never heard Andrews mention any breakdown like that in his daily lectures. Should also,say how many were in hospitals.... if there continues to be transmission in those two high risk settings then plan on watching the Melb Cup on your own.