Coronavirus

[DavidSSS]

I read an article about contact tracing in Japan recently, it was talking about targeting the contact tracing especially back to the possible source.

I think there are many issues with contact tracing and that what a lot of this reflects is just how difficult it is to do a good trace.

Don't know what the solution is. I reckon with numbers this low we could have some chance of tracing a lot of the contacts but I would think they can't be doing this in the USA and Europe, way too many cases to trace.

Just looking at the international situation, there seems to be a massive second wave going on, what a mess.

DS

 

[Althom]

I read an article about contact tracing in Japan recently, it was talking about targeting the contact tracing especially back to the possible source.

I think there are many issues with contact tracing and that what a lot of this reflects is just how difficult it is to do a good trace.

Don't know what the solution is. I reckon with numbers this low we could have some chance of tracing a lot of the contacts but I would think they can't be doing this in the USA and Europe, way too many cases to trace.

Just looking at the international situation, there seems to be a massive second wave going on, what a mess.

DS

Interesting article today from some students in the UK. Tested positive but later found not to be ended on the Contact Tracing database, people they'd been in contact with not told to isolate. Too many people for the system to handle.

 

[waiting]

That article you linked is really good, and should be mandatory reading.

I still think we don’t know enough about this virus.

Different strands of it could be causing more problems worldwide.

Greece, France & UK going through second waves is of real concern. I think from speaking to family in Greece they believed they had it under control, a cluster occurred at a wedding, they opened their borders to overseas travellers ( Greece is dependent a lot on tourism- Greek Islands , Ancient sites etc ) and now they could be seeing another lockdown.

India in a lot of pain.
Saying this virus doesn’t thrive in hot climate’ doesn’t make sense.

Our numbers are now being stubborn in double figures. Whatever hope we had of ‘some’ restrictions being lifted , even some industries opening is now a long shot.

DS you seem to be one a few on here who are really more on top of this than myself is it because of these ‘unknown mystery ‘ cases & small clusters’ that are driving these stubborn numbers and making it hard to get to that ‘magic’ figure of 5 and under.

I’m still fearful of it creeping back into aged care again ( as lessons of what I’m reading ) are not being learnt & of clusters in hospitals...


Your thoughts???

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

’m still fearful of it creeping back into aged care again ( as lessons of what I’m reading ) are not being learnt & of clusters in hospitals...

Your thoughts???

We've still barely been touched by it from a health resource perspective so I think there is a certain amount of apathy here about the threat it poses. Given that a vaccine-driven normality is still probably 12 months away, it's hard to see it not blowing up again.

Iran has had 100-200 deaths a day, give or take, for seven months straight. Yesterday was a new peak, 272.

 

[Althom]

Virus rulebreakers rack up $26m worth of unpaid fines: 'We will come after you'

www.9news.com.au

 

[Sintiger]

I read an article about contact tracing in Japan recently, it was talking about targeting the contact tracing especially back to the possible source.

I think there are many issues with contact tracing and that what a lot of this reflects is just how difficult it is to do a good trace.

Don't know what the solution is. I reckon with numbers this low we could have some chance of tracing a lot of the contacts but I would think they can't be doing this in the USA and Europe, way too many cases to trace.

Good post. Some seem to think contact tracing is easy when it’s actually really hard, especially if there are those that don’t cooperate.
Even going back to the security guards issue one of the problems there was the complete lack of cooperation of some people. Wouldn’t say where they had been or who they had contact with.
The Chadstone butcher cluster is a case in point. It turned out that one infected person had been in a supermarket in Glen Iris. That supermarket was closed for a deep clean but it was 2-3 days after the person was Infected because they had just tested positive. The warning went out to the public but how do you trace everyone who happened to touch the same tomato sauce bottle that has COVID droplets on it from the infected person? ( I’m making that last bit up btw).
I think our contact tracing could be better but it is really hard to get it 100%.
It’s a combination of a lot of things

 

[AngryAnt]

I dont

 

[DavidSSS]

I still think we don’t know enough about this virus.

Different strands of it could be causing more problems worldwide.

Greece, France & UK going through second waves is of real concern. I think from speaking to family in Greece they believed they had it under control, a cluster occurred at a wedding, they opened their borders to overseas travellers ( Greece is dependent a lot on tourism- Greek Islands , Ancient sites etc ) and now they could be seeing another lockdown.

India in a lot of pain.
Saying this virus doesn’t thrive in hot climate’ doesn’t make sense.

Our numbers are now being stubborn in double figures. Whatever hope we had of ‘some’ restrictions being lifted , even some industries opening is now a long shot.

DS you seem to be one a few on here who are really more on top of this than myself is it because of these ‘unknown mystery ‘ cases & small clusters’ that are driving these stubborn numbers and making it hard to get to that ‘magic’ figure of 5 and under.

I’m still fearful of it creeping back into aged care again ( as lessons of what I’m reading ) are not being learnt & of clusters in hospitals...


Your thoughts???

Europe is really bad and I hate to think how it is going in India, just the population density there would make it a nightmare.

I have mainly been looking at the daily infection numbers, but there is some good info here: ABC Coronavirus data charts

Just looking through that data quickly.

The number of cases in Melbourne with an unknown source is now 13. Not many but the spread from 13 cases can be a lot.

Over the last 3 days there were 5, 10 and 8 cases which are under investigation. Given that there are 13 with an unknown source now they must be finding at least some of the sources of new infections.

Also, only 0.5% of cases are from returned travelers. In other words, most of the transmission is local, not surprising given we don't have travelers arriving in Melbourne at the moment.

Although the majority of cases in currently identified clusters are in Aged Care, there are 2 hospital clusters, a residential cluster and a retail cluster. So, it is not just in aged care and I would think the way to keep it out of aged care is to have staff not moving between facilities.

What the ABC doesn't have is the current active cases, which is 186, down from thousands at the peak. If you look at various suburbs the numbers are low, my suburb, and my municipality, has 1 active case at the moment. In contrast, Wyndham has 22 active cases. The virus is spread thin but there only a couple of municipalities with no active cases. Of course, there will be undiagnosed cases.

We do focus a lot on new cases, but the active cases has been going down consistently which is a good sign, just got to try and sort out those unknown cases because they are where it can already have spread from and we just don't know.

DS

 

[waiting]

Europe is really bad and I hate to think how it is going in India, just the population density there would make it a nightmare.

I have mainly been looking at the daily infection numbers, but there is some good info here: ABC Coronavirus data charts

Just looking through that data quickly.

The number of cases in Melbourne with an unknown source is now 13. Not many but the spread from 13 cases can be a lot.

Over the last 3 days there were 5, 10 and 8 cases which are under investigation. Given that there are 13 with an unknown source now they must be finding at least some of the sources of new infections.

Also, only 0.5% of cases are from returned travelers. In other words, most of the transmission is local, not surprising given we don't have travelers arriving in Melbourne at the moment.

Although the majority of cases in currently identified clusters are in Aged Care, there are 2 hospital clusters, a residential cluster and a retail cluster. So, it is not just in aged care and I would think the way to keep it out of aged care is to have staff not moving between facilities.

What the ABC doesn't have is the current active cases, which is 186, down from thousands at the peak. If you look at various suburbs the numbers are low, my suburb, and my municipality, has 1 active case at the moment. In contrast, Wyndham has 22 active cases. The virus is spread thin but there only a couple of municipalities with no active cases. Of course, there will be undiagnosed cases.

We do focus a lot on new cases, but the active cases has been going down consistently which is a good sign, just got to try and sort out those unknown cases because they are where it can already have spread from and we just don't know.

DS

Thanks DS .
Those small infections at Box Hill Hospital ( near where I live ) is of concern as you said it could be ‘staff moving through facilities’.

Appreciate your insights.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Now major concerns about Shepparton.

 

[eZyT]

I usually get a few funny looks and a laugh when I sit down in the chair at my semi-hipster barber (yes, he has the NFL on a big screen and offers you a rum or a whisky and we talk horses),

and he asks 'so, how do we want our hair today?'

and I reply 'well if im cutting your hair, you're not gonna have a lot of say in the look, but I'd like you to cut mine exactly the same as everybody else'

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

We're not even back to the levels we were at when we re-opened last time. Can't do the same thing and expect a different result. Why are Victorians incapable of getting down to 0 or 1 a day like the other states?

Would like to have seen a total shutdown for a fortnight to knock it on the head, with employees required to use Christmas leave and severe penalties for breaches including imprisonment. Probably not workable in the current strained political climate.

This will end in a total clusterfuck, with our sacrifices amounting to nought.

 

[MD Jazz]

We're not even back to the levels we were at when we re-opened last time. Can't do the same thing and expect a different result. Why are Victorians incapable of getting down to 0 or 1 a day like the other states?

Would like to have seen a total shutdown for a fortnight to knock it on the head, with employees required to use Christmas leave and severe penalties for breaches including imprisonment. Probably not workable in the current strained political climate.

This will end in a total clusterfuck, with our sacrifices amounting to nought.

The Chief Health Officer, Brett Sutton, said the challenge in Victoria was "profoundly different from equivalent case numbers in any other jurisdiction of Australia".

He said many of the people infected in Victoria's second wave faced a challenging set of social circumstances.

"Through this second wave, the 20,000 cases that occurred across Victoria settled into the hardest cohorts and populations across the state, including in metropolitan Melbourne," he said.

Professor Sutton said while the average household in Victoria had 2.5 people, many of the households at the centre of clusters were much larger.

"We're thinking that, on average, the household sizes that we're following up are twice to three times that size," he said.

"That means more workplaces exposed, and it goes on exponentially. Those workplaces have people working there who have households that are two or three times the size of an average Victorian household.

"So, the number of close contacts per household, and the number of close contacts they have, is hugely different."
He pointed to Victoria's "challenges of casualised work, of cash-in-hand, of issues of visa status, issues of language and cultural barriers".


So does NSW not have a casualised workforce, a cash in hand economy or any non-english speakers? Surely they had some large households at the centres of some clusters? NSW had over 100 cases per days for 2 weeks straight? Surely they faced the same challenges we did at that point? But somehow managed to bring the numbers down without 10 weeks of Stage 4 restrictions? Not sure you can say don't compare jurisdictions, he makes it seem like we are on another planet.

So we are either really really really unlucky or we are managing it differently and what we are doing is not as effective as in NSW. I thought I did read that we had accepted some help/advice in regards contact tracing.

Would like some further explanations on what he means when he says "Through this second wave, the 20,000 cases that occurred across Victoria settled into the hardest cohorts and populations across the state."

 

[Tigers of Old]

What a selfish piece of *smile*.
(edit: He didn't realise he was infected apparently) but still his behaviour has put many at risk.

Long wait for testing in Shepparton after Chadstone outbreak spreads

COVID-19 testing sites in Shepparton have been 'overwhlmed' as the regional city reels from a new virus cluster sparked by the same man who spread it to Kilmore.

www.theage.com.au

 

[Ian4]

So 3 of todays 7 cases were in Shepparton, right? Which means 4 for metro Melbourne.

Question: When Andrews says he's not gonna introduce all of the step 3 eased restrictions next week, what do people think he means? my thought is that that 5km rule will remain (or be slightly extended to 10km or 20km).

But after speaking to a work colleague yesterday, I’m starting to think that the 5km rule could be scrapped, but the reopening of retail (after the Chadstone incident) and the household bubble of 5 might not happen instead.

Thoughts?

 

[Althom]

What a selfish piece of *smile*.
(edit: He didn't realise he was infected apparently) but still his behaviour has put many at risk.

Long wait for testing in Shepparton after Chadstone outbreak spreads

COVID-19 testing sites in Shepparton have been 'overwhlmed' as the regional city reels from a new virus cluster sparked by the same man who spread it to Kilmore.

www.theage.com.au

Wasn't fined because he provided valuable information. Only issue seems to be that he didn't provide all the information until contact tracing indicated he'd made more stops than he'd admitted. Surely he should get some form of fine/gaol time now?

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Sorry, but the Shepparton germ-spreader is exactly the type of person who warrants imprisonment. Treat it like the reprehensible crime that it is. Can't have the few holding back the many.

 

[Ridley]

Nah mate much more productive and PC to issue fines to people without a mask walking their dogs.

 

[IanG]

What a selfish piece of *smile*.
(edit: He didn't realise he was infected apparently) but still his behaviour has put many at risk.

Long wait for testing in Shepparton after Chadstone outbreak spreads

COVID-19 testing sites in Shepparton have been 'overwhlmed' as the regional city reels from a new virus cluster sparked by the same man who spread it to Kilmore.

www.theage.com.au

Apparently he didn't disclose where he went though, he should be fined/prosecuted to the fullest extent.

 

[DavidSSS]

Heard an interview on the radio today, someone who is in charge of contact tracing. He was explaining the issues with reference to the guy who went through Shepparton. The issue is the information coming from those who have tested positive and they need to trace it back. The data they are getting from infected people sounds like it is inadequate - data is always a case of garbage in, garbage out.

This is (one of the reasons) why contact tracing is so difficult.

At least today's number is good, although we are always going to be dependent upon people getting tested. Under 10 is much better and here is how it looks:



Thought I would go for the last 7 days with raw numbers, gives a better indication of how things are developing without being a big list that your eyes glaze over:

Date	New Infections	7 Day Trailing ave	5 Day Centred ave	14 Day Trailing ave
7 October 2020	9	8.57	10.40	9.93
8 October 2020	10	9.29	10.00	9.71
9 October 2020	14	10.00	11.80	9.86
10 October 2020	12	10.29	12.40	9.57
11 October 2020	14	11.14	11.80	10.21
12 October 2020	12	10.86		10.43
13 October 2020	7	11.14		10.21

That bunch of days over 10 is really reflected in the 5 day average, but we really need to see the 14 day average dropping again.

Doubt we will be able to have friends over for the Grand Final

DS