Coronavirus

[Baloo]

Anyone refusing a test should be treated either as a hostile active case so strap them down in Fairfield, or as a hostile potential, so send the to quarantine on Christmas Island for a couple of weeks or more.

This is the issue Vic needs to deal with. If you lift the lockdown, do you trust the population to still take precautions?

 

[Dev Tiger]

The numbers have plateaued. It could be a long time before Victorian's are welcome back in other states.

 

[AngryAnt]

The numbers have plateaued. It could be a long time before Victorian's are welcome back in other states.

NSW look like they might have a few problems now as well...

 

[Giardiasis]

This is what Dan's proposed detention legislation was for. I understand the potential for it to turn into something sinister, but this is hardly a human rights issue. The rest of us have the right not to catch this sh!t.

Isolate yourself then. Why should everyone else have to adjust their lives to manage your personal level of risk acceptance?

 

[23.21.159]

Looking at Melbourne's situation from the outside, can't help but think you are over-doing it a bit. Most countries would kill for your sort of numbers. Yes, if the lockdown is relaxed, numbers will rise, but a balance needs to be struck IMO.
Here in Denmark (population 6 million, geographical size one-fifth that of Victoria), numbers are relatively stable with daily infection numbers between 300 to 500, - not going up. But it seems to be mostly young people, and deaths are at about 0 to 2 per day. There are laws against large gatherings and masks are compulsory in public transport and in restaurants if not sitting at a table, and bars have to close at 10.00 pm. But that's about it.
Also I just read an article that fewer people have died this year in Denmark (for any reason) than in any of the previous six years.

 

[pete and tys]

Looking at Melbourne's situation from the outside, can't help but think you are over-doing it a bit. Most countries would kill for your sort of numbers. Yes, if the lockdown is relaxed, numbers will rise, but a balance needs to be struck IMO.
Here in Denmark (population 6 million, geographical size one-fifth that of Victoria), numbers are relatively stable with daily infection numbers between 300 to 500, - not going up. But it seems to be mostly young people, and deaths are at about 0 to 2 per day. There are laws against large gatherings and masks are compulsory in public transport and in restaurants if not sitting at a table, and bars have to close at 10.00 pm. But that's about it.
Also I just read an article that fewer people have died this year in Denmark (for any reason) than in any of the previous six years.

We are told and are concerned about hospital over load and medical and nursing shortages.
Is this the case in Denmark or is the worry here, which I have accepted to be true , in fact over blown?

 

[23.21.159]

We are told and are concerned about hospital over load and medical and nursing shortages.
Is this the case in Denmark or is the worry here, which I have accepted to be true , in fact over blown?

We got told that back in March/April/May when this first started. It was a great unknown and they were scared of what was happening in Italy and Spain at the time happening here. "Flatten the curve" they said. I suppose we've done that and are still doing it. We had a serious lockdown like yours for about two months but now it's back to relatively normal. They just have to keep monitoring the numbers and if they go up, tighten the restrictions. I think that's just going to be the way of things until a vaccine is found.
I don't think the worry is overblown, but I doubt you will ever get the numbers lower than what you have now.

 

[pete and tys]

We got told that back in March/April/May when this first started. It was a great unknown and they were scared of what was happening in Italy and Spain at the time happening here. "Flatten the curve" they said. I suppose we've done that and are still doing it. We had a serious lockdown like yours for about two months but now it's back to relatively normal. They just have to keep monitoring the numbers and if they go up, tighten the restrictions. I think that's just going to be the way of things until a vaccine is found.
I don't think the worry is overblown, but I doubt you will ever get the numbers lower than what you have now.

I really wanted to know what is happening in the hospitals. Are they overwhelmed , especially ICU or not?

 

[MD Jazz]

Isolate yourself then. Why should everyone else have to adjust their lives to manage your personal level of risk acceptance?

Yeh, we seem to have this the wrong way around in a lot of areas. Protect the vulnerable and those at highest risk. And ultimately if you don't want to catch the virus don't expose yourself to high risk situations. Those in aged care have had no choice but most of the population has choice.

Limit large gatherings indoors and you're halfway there. But if Chadstone etc opens nobody is being forced to go there. Wear a mask, wash your hands and don't touch your face.

Has any country or state in the world had a lockdown as sever as Victoria's?

And despite it, we still can't get it down to the other states?

 

[23.21.159]

No.
Data is here and it's in English: https://www.sst.dk/en/english/corona-eng/covid-19-updates-statistics-and-charts
It's Monday morning here and that data is from Friday so it's a bit out of date.
106 in hospitals, 18 in intensive care, 13 on a ventilator.
Given the amount of tax I pay here, if those numbers are overwhelming the health system, I'd be pretty annoyed.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

And despite it, we still can't get it down to the other states?

Only conclusion I can draw from this is people are getting around with the virus without having themselves tested, or our contact tracing still isn't up to scratch.

 

[pete and tys]

No.
Data is here and it's in English: https://www.sst.dk/en/english/corona-eng/covid-19-updates-statistics-and-charts
It's Monday morning here and that data is from Friday so it's a bit out of date.
106 in hospitals, 18 in intensive care, 13 on a ventilator.
Given the amount of tax I pay here, if those numbers are overwhelming the health system, I'd be pretty annoyed.

Thanks. Does not seem our hospitals will be overwhelmed if we open at 10 a day and restrict indoor gatherings.
Either we go for elimination and continue this way or we open up sensibly and carefully and live with small numbers and deaths in the aged.
Does mean we never get to go anywhere.

 

[Sintiger]

Thanks. Does not seem our hospitals will be overwhelmed if we open at 10 a day and restrict indoor gatherings.
Either we go for elimination and continue this way or we open up sensibly and carefully and live with small numbers and deaths in the aged.
Does mean we never get to go anywhere.

There have been points of time elsewhere in the world where the hospital systems get overwhelmed, including the ICUs, and that is when the virus gets really dangerous.
There were real concerns early on in the pandemic that this could happen here and during April and May the potential ICU capacity was increased a lot in the state. Increasing capacity is good but it also needs to be remembered you have to staff the capacity.
The numbers of patients in ICUs with COVID right now is very low, it is published by DHHS.
The Premier wasn’t saying that hospitals will get overwhelmed at 10 cases a day, he was referring to a 3rd spike if it happened but even at 700 a day the system coped well but this level was not the level that other places have experienced. Even our highest level is significantly lower than elsewhere and we wouldn’t want to get to those levels. We might cope capacity wise but it’s qualified staff that would be the concern.

 

[bigwow]

12 new, 1 death.
No way we're getting to an average of 5 anytime soon.
Need to revisit the next step parameters, or there'll be anarchy in the streets.

 

[MB78]

I’m hearing from a mate that’s in the union that the labor MP’s that form a ring around Melbourne Bendigo, Ballarat, Geelong, Latrobe Valley are starting to get very very restless and are demanding some restrictions be eased urgently.

Fingers crossed that we can get these numbers down.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Dan & his crew had better start making some solid decisions pretty shortly.
I sense the broader public, even his most ardent supporters are getting very frustrated.
The dam is breaking.

 

[DavidSSS]

I,m sure they will reduce the restrictions on Monday, just not as much as they would if the numbers were down to 5.

This is not clear cut, interesting article in The Age this morning by an epidemiologist debating both sides of the equation.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/...itise-what-we-value-most-20201012-p56496.html

With 12 new infections the averages are plateauing or even rising:



By the numbers:

Date	New Infections	7 Day Trailing ave	5 Day Centred ave	14 Day Trailing ave
8 October 2020	10	9.29	10.00	9.71
9 October 2020	14	10.00	12.00	9.86
10 October 2020	12	10.29	12.60	9.57
11 October 2020	15	11.29		10.29
12 October 2020	12	11.00		10.50

The averages are jumping around because we are basically stuck at the current level of around 10 to 15 infections a day.

There needs to be some reduction in restrictions as compliance won't happen otherwise. I think the point in the article above about how anyone who can work from home should is critical. Let's control this but open up some more I reckon, numbers are well down on what they were in August and we know more about how this spreads, so there is scope.

DS

 

[Coburgtiger]

Only conclusion I can draw from this is people are getting around with the virus without having themselves tested, or our contact tracing still isn't up to scratch.

It's both.

People still whining about security guards, but contact tracing and monitoring of isolation (combined with those idiotic post code restrictions) has been the biggest failure.

 

[Coburgtiger]

I,m sure they will reduce the restrictions on Monday, just not as much as they would if the numbers were down to 5.

This is not clear cut, interesting article in The Age this morning by an epidemiologist debating both sides of the equation.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/...itise-what-we-value-most-20201012-p56496.html

With 12 new infections the averages are plateauing or even rising:

View attachment 10756

By the numbers:

Date	New Infections	7 Day Trailing ave	5 Day Centred ave	14 Day Trailing ave
8 October 2020	10	9.29	10.00	9.71
9 October 2020	14	10.00	12.00	9.86
10 October 2020	12	10.29	12.60	9.57
11 October 2020	15	11.29		10.29
12 October 2020	12	11.00		10.50

The averages are jumping around because we are basically stuck at the current level of around 10 to 15 infections a day.

There needs to be some reduction in restrictions as compliance won't happen otherwise. I think the point in the article above about how anyone who can work from home should is critical. Let's control this but open up some more I reckon, numbers are well down on what they were in August and we know more about how this spreads, so there is scope.

DS

That article you linked is really good, and should be mandatory reading.

 

[eZyT]

Yes, we all think we are not biased.

I dont