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IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
- Start date
He's doing the right thing and has to withstand the noise.
Two anecdotes from yesterday.
1) copped my first spray in the supermarket for below nose mask. Fair cop.
2) checking for local exposure sites on state gov site. Saw a tier 2 in Warrigal Rd Ashwood and clicked on it details were for a Prinary school building site in Deanside (had to look it up...new suburb in NW 40 km.away. shows how hard it is to keep websites accurate when so many cases.
1) copped my first spray in the supermarket for below nose mask. Fair cop.
2) checking for local exposure sites on state gov site. Saw a tier 2 in Warrigal Rd Ashwood and clicked on it details were for a Prinary school building site in Deanside (had to look it up...new suburb in NW 40 km.away. shows how hard it is to keep websites accurate when so many cases.
we might overtake NSW prior to October 18, but once they open, daily cases will surge into the tens of thousands.
Andrews is gonna be providing a roadmap this weekend. Some people are claiming he is waiting too long, but I don’t think people understand what a gargantuan task this is.
As we have discussed many times, the original Doherty modelling is flawed because it's based on zero cases and only projects for 180 days. Victoria ain’t at zero cases and COVID isn’t gonna disappear in 6 months.
New modelling from the Doherty Institute was supposed to be released last week. You would assume our future planning will be based on this. Some media reports are saying the federal government has received the new modelling but are refusing to release it because it goes against their preferred narrative of opening up ASAP.
We also need to factor in 12-15 year old’s into vaccine percentages now as they are eligible to get vaccinated from next week. I’m tipping the Victorian percentages will adjust next week to include 12-15 year old’s. Will the rest of the country follow suit?
Then we have the hardest decision of them all... how many deaths is acceptable? Because even if we open up at 80%, there will be thousands of deaths. The UK averaging over 110 deaths per day atm (based in their 7 day average). I am reading about horror stories going on in NSW hospitals atm that are generally being ignored by the MSM. How will our hospital system cope?
Finally, we also need to think of, and protect the other states who are at COVID zero. WA and TAS have already said they're not gonna open borders until the country is at 90% of over 12s. Can't say I blame them.
On a sidenote, I noticed The Age has the national and VIC double jab vaccination rates in a banner on their front page today. Then says the target is 70%. Who the told them the target is 70%? Is the NSW target now the national target? Then on top of this, they have a Clive Palmer banner on the bottom posting disinformation about vaccines. They are truly in Murdoch territory, maybe even surpassing them.
Agree with Andrews that MCG vax site is a gimmick. Got to take the vax to the people not the other way. The MCG isn't Mecca to every group in the community.
You are right about what death numbers will be accepted by govts and citizens. Given how we went in 2020 we haven't faced that question unlike just about every other country.
Don't agree on Vic and nsw needing to be overly concerned about Wa et Al. They are big boys and girls and have done a good job looking after themselves so far. To make it easy for MCGOWAN I will give him a guarantee I won't travel to Wa for 5 years. As long as he let's me enter wa air space on the way to greener places we can live happily without each other.
One good thing in this outbreak. Checked the Vic health website - zero active cases in Aged Care. Shows that vaccines and safe practice lessons have been learnt.
On the other hand, as aged cares cases were a sizeable proportion of 2020 outbreak, it means this year that community transmission is even worse.
On the other hand, as aged cares cases were a sizeable proportion of 2020 outbreak, it means this year that community transmission is even worse.
If the Feds had provided some leadership the states wouldn't have taken the lead. It was the lack of leadership from the Federal government which led to the states going rogue.
We really need to be concentrating on the vax numbers for the whole population, even limiting it to 12 and over is not enough. Those numbers printed on the front of The Age each day are a joke, as the 4th Ian above notes, who said 70% of 16+ fully vaccinated was any sort of milestone? The numbers are useful in that they show Victoria is still less vaccinated than the overall population, but apart from that fairly useless. The Clive Palmer ads would be a significant source of revenue which I figure they can't live without, doubt many take them seriously.
Current vaccination numbers are:
33.7% fully vaccinated
41.99% 16+ fully vaccinated
Ranked 34 of 38 OECD countries
I suspect the newer Doherty Institute modelling is far more cautious than the original modelling as they would have seen how their modelling was (mis)used to find ways of opening the economy up. This Federal Government never agreed with the lockdowns early in 2020 and I suspect would have wavered between letting it rip and locking down similar to Johnson's UK government.
DS
We really need to be concentrating on the vax numbers for the whole population, even limiting it to 12 and over is not enough. Those numbers printed on the front of The Age each day are a joke, as the 4th Ian above notes, who said 70% of 16+ fully vaccinated was any sort of milestone? The numbers are useful in that they show Victoria is still less vaccinated than the overall population, but apart from that fairly useless. The Clive Palmer ads would be a significant source of revenue which I figure they can't live without, doubt many take them seriously.
Current vaccination numbers are:
33.7% fully vaccinated
41.99% 16+ fully vaccinated
Ranked 34 of 38 OECD countries
I suspect the newer Doherty Institute modelling is far more cautious than the original modelling as they would have seen how their modelling was (mis)used to find ways of opening the economy up. This Federal Government never agreed with the lockdowns early in 2020 and I suspect would have wavered between letting it rip and locking down similar to Johnson's UK government.
DS
I worry for the younger kids that are not eligible for vaccinations yet. I have an 8yo and if schools open up they will want to go but without a vaccination, I am not going to want to send them back.
I just don't know how we break this trend, lockdown just doesn't seem to be working at the moment.
DS
I had the same emotional reaction as a parent of an u12 too.
But when you look at the data it’s just not a rational (although it’s a perfectly understandable) fear. Pretty much doing anything in life will be riskier than this and I don’t think many parents want their kids to live in a complete bubble.
Deaths from COVID ‘incredibly rare’ among children
Studies find that overall risk of death or severe disease from COVID-19 is very low in kids.
www.nature.com
It may also be the best thing for our children to get Covid young and have lifetime resistance to it.
This ignores long Covid though - so we don’t know that.
For me I’m going to be much more worried teaching my kids to drive and then getting a license than Covid risk.
For those that have kids with severe underlying breathing difficulties etc than the calculus may be different.
For those kids that have anti vax obese parents then it will be the parents that are the ones likely to make their kids an orphan after their kids get it at school.
I saw a different graph that has the Vic line in a different spot, on the other side of the NSW line
I think this graph assumes that on the 1 'donut' day we had there were no cases in the state. it is highly unlikely this was actually the case.
regardless we are tracking the same way unless something changes.
This exactly. But let’s also remember Gladys has completely disregarded the original Doherty modelling when announcing they are opening up at 70%. And when Andrews (rightly) doesn’t follow suit, the MSM will lose their sh!t.
It was a surprise to see her at her press conference but Gladys was changing her tune somewhat today.
Changed her tune in what way? Did she see a poll or something? That seems to be the only thing that motivates the Libs into action these days.
I was brought up as a Paranoid Patty, don't do this, don't do that, don't go where angels fear to tread (FFS give me strength), anyways, I have had my first vax and will get the second soon, and will try to be as relaxed as possible when the child goes back to school, whenever that is...I had the same emotional reaction as a parent of an u12 too.
But when you look at the data it’s just not a rational (although it’s a perfectly understandable) fear. Pretty much doing anything in life will be riskier than this and I don’t think many parents want their kids to live in a complete bubble.
Deaths from COVID ‘incredibly rare’ among children
Studies find that overall risk of death or severe disease from COVID-19 is very low in kids.
It may also be the best thing for our children to get Covid young and have lifetime resistance to it.
This ignores long Covid though - so we don’t know that.
For me I’m going to be much more worried teaching my kids to drive and then getting a license than Covid risk.
For those that have kids with severe underlying breathing difficulties etc than the calculus may be different.
For those kids that have anti vax obese parents then it will be the parents that are the ones likely to make their kids an orphan after their kids get it at school.
Way, Way too late but finally a crackdown on the construction industry but one has to ask what have the surveillance units of this industry been doing for the last 18 months? bowing to Unions is my guess 
www.theage.com.au
Victorian construction site blitz, warning on ‘tea room danger’
The construction industry faces a compliance blitz as authorities warn break rooms could be the most dangerous workplace setting.
