It doesn't matter how you read it. They don't know.
Care to answer my question? Why did you do it?
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IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
Global Warming
- Thread starter Disco08
- Start date
Care to answer my question? Why did you do it?
The only person mentioning "scientific consensus" on specific weather events and their relationship to climate change is you. We all know that there is a lot of evidence that the extremes of certain events looks to be related to climate change, but there is still much work to do.
Obvious straw man argument, yet more sniping, I think the technique here is to attempt to shift the use of the term scientific consensus from its usual context of evidence of human activity influencing climate, and then claim that there is no scientific consensus on specific weather events. Unconvincing.
DS
Obvious straw man argument, yet more sniping, I think the technique here is to attempt to shift the use of the term scientific consensus from its usual context of evidence of human activity influencing climate, and then claim that there is no scientific consensus on specific weather events. Unconvincing.
DS
*smile*.
www.abc.net.au
One of the most comprehensive climate reports ever was released last night. Here's what you may have missed
The Earth could be just 10 years from heating by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius since industrialisation — a global warming threshold beyond which even more serious and frequent fires, droughts, floods and cyclones are expected to wreak havoc on humanity.
www.abc.net.au
I'll certainly be voting for whichever party has strong climate policies this coming election.
Not listening to any more sceptics or dangerous fools. Time to look after our planet before it's too late for our future.
Not listening to any more sceptics or dangerous fools. Time to look after our planet before it's too late for our future.
I'd be staggered if that headline has interpreted the report correctly. On current trajectory there is no possibility of reaching +1.5 by 2030. Zero.One of the most comprehensive climate reports ever was released last night. Here's what you may have missed
The Earth could be just 10 years from heating by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius since industrialisation — a global warming threshold beyond which even more serious and frequent fires, droughts, floods and cyclones are expected to wreak havoc on humanity.
I thought they were doing away with the extreme modelling?
Have you read the article or just the headline?
World likely to hit 1.5C by 2030 if nothing changes
The new report found that even in its most ambitious scenario, which the world is failing to stick to, global warming would likely hit 1.5C by about 2035.On our current trajectory, we are likely to hit 1.5C of warming about 2030.
*smile*.
One of the most comprehensive climate reports ever was released last night. Here's what you may have missed
The Earth could be just 10 years from heating by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius since industrialisation — a global warming threshold beyond which even more serious and frequent fires, droughts, floods and cyclones are expected to wreak havoc on humanity.
Australia is so well suited to a world reliant on energy from renewable sources.
We are f***ing this up so badly it just isn't funny.
DS
If it's currently +1.2 then we are not getting to +1.5 by 2030. Even if we did our level best to get there.
As is typical, the headlines are as scary as they can be - clickbait.
The reality of the IPCC report actually revolves around a few different scenarios.
In short there are 5 scenarios analysed, and these scenarios are based on future carbon emissions:
Depending on which scenario we follow, we get different outcomes:
So, we could get to a 1.5C rise in temperature by 2030 if we keep increasing greenhouse gas emissions, but the hope is that we won't keep increasing emissions. In fact, the prediction in a 1.5C increase in global average temperatures (against a base period of 1850 to 1900) is that it is more likely than not by 2040.
There's a good write up here: https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/08/key-takeaways-from-the-new-ipcc-report/
I'm sure some will question this summary, and pick around the edges, quote a few loony websites etc, but this is what the IPCC Report, a report which is the result of scientists considering the evidence presented in over 14,000 papers, has to say.
The scariest thing is that we really need to be taking carbon from the atmosphere, not just emitting no carbon, by 2050 or shortly after, to avoid 2C of warming.
DS
The reality of the IPCC report actually revolves around a few different scenarios.
In short there are 5 scenarios analysed, and these scenarios are based on future carbon emissions:
Depending on which scenario we follow, we get different outcomes:
So, we could get to a 1.5C rise in temperature by 2030 if we keep increasing greenhouse gas emissions, but the hope is that we won't keep increasing emissions. In fact, the prediction in a 1.5C increase in global average temperatures (against a base period of 1850 to 1900) is that it is more likely than not by 2040.
There's a good write up here: https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/08/key-takeaways-from-the-new-ipcc-report/
I'm sure some will question this summary, and pick around the edges, quote a few loony websites etc, but this is what the IPCC Report, a report which is the result of scientists considering the evidence presented in over 14,000 papers, has to say.
The scariest thing is that we really need to be taking carbon from the atmosphere, not just emitting no carbon, by 2050 or shortly after, to avoid 2C of warming.
DS
^^ "Very likely" is 90% confidence in IPCC terms. Those are very large ranges for the short term. If it got to +1.7 by 2040 then I would support immediate action. I also expect there will be significant discoveries and technological advances in that period.
In regards to the human footprint of emissions
How would you tackle China? "developing country"
How would you enforce it?
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I had seen a couple of years back a company trying to create filters that have a big impact on the emissions being emitted by the power plant (europe somewhere). Was early in development off memory. So we might be able to upgrade with new tech the current infrastructure hopefully too. make it greener
The upper limit of modelling for 2040 is +1.7 to +1.9. I'm saying if it gets to +1.7 by 2040, it would be enough to turn me around*., because that would be nearly double the current long-term rate of warming. Come back in 19 years.
*provided the satellites don't fall from the sky
Turns out your bizarre expecration that the latest IPCC report would suddenly flip to your anti-science position was wrong
Must be disappointing.
Unless there's a cheap efficient and clean way to magically remove the last 250 years worth of CO2 emissions from the atmosphere then you are as deluded as Hill Song Boy about "technological advances" suddenly saving the day.
Mutual feelings dude. We've just had the six hottest years on record and you still want to play games around semantics and "the models were slightly out".
This kind of self-delusion is next level.
