Possible paths through the finals 2020

[AngryAnt]

Using http://predictor.squiggle.com.au, some scenarios for final ladder positions and paths through the finals.

The "best path" given we beat Adelaide and Port stays top means we finish 3rd and play Lions. This would mean a prelim against the Cats and a likely GF against Port unless they really screw the pooch at the AO somehow. I like this as we get to play Geelong in QLD again in the prelim. This is the most likely scenario IMO.




Next scenario, should Port lose to Collingwood (either by accident or design) and assuming everyone else in the frame wins, including us - this would give us a nasty first final in Adelaide, but even if we lose that we still get to play probably Collingwood or similar in the next EF and then a prelim against the Lions.



Worst case - we somehow lose to Adelaide. Assuming Port beat Collingwood, this would give us an EF against the Pies or similar. Danger game but not too worrying. We then cop the Eagles but likely in QLD, and yet another prelim against the Lions.

 

[larabee]

so what i'm seeing there is that we're going back-to-back

 

[AngryAnt]

so what i'm seeing there is that we're going back-to-back

Exactly, although I carefully avoided saying that

 

[Bernie]

so what i'm seeing there is that we're going back-to-back

Larabee

We get three out of four!

That's better than Meatloaf ever did!

 

[gold1]

I actually think Adelaide will do their best to give us an easy win because they would hate it if Port won the flag.

 

[ToraToraTora]

Port chucking it v Pies is a possibility.

 

[Spirit of Jack]

Good chance Collingwood beats Port...that's the toughest game we would face - Port in Adelaide...at least its a double chance game.

 

[Rancey18]

Good chance Collingwood beats Port...that's the toughest game we would face - Port in Adelaide...at least its a double chance game.

We nearly beat them over there whilst missing half our team and them throwing the kitchen sink at us. I'd be backing us in if we have to play them there again.

 

[Tass]

We nearly beat them over there whilst missing half our team and them throwing the kitchen sink at us. I'd be backing us in if we have to play them there again.

This

 

[Coburgtiger]

I actually think Adelaide will do their best to give us an easy win because they would hate it if Port won the flag.

You don't think Adelaide hate us more?

 

[St Kevin]

Even if Port loses to Collingwood, I wouldn’t be worried about heading to Adelaide Oval for the qualifying final.

Last game against Port we had half a team and got within 4 goals. The next time we play them we’ll be far stronger. Even if we lose, I’d back us to beat them in Queensland if we played them again.

 

[AngryAnt]

You don't think Adelaide hate us more?

No, they still hate Port more

 

[AngryAnt]

Even if Port loses to Collingwood, I wouldn’t be worried about heading to Adelaide Oval for the qualifying final.

Last game against Port we had half a team and got within 4 goals. The next time we play them we’ll be far stronger. Even if we lose, I’d back us to beat them in Queensland if we played them again.

Yeah. I don't actually buy that they would prefer to play us than Geelong anyway. We've shown this year that when it's on the line, we will step up. Geelong not so much.

 

[JR8]

Port may very well lose but there is also the chance that Brisbane will lose too. They have nothing to play for as Top 2 and a home final is sewn up. They may decide not to go 100%.

Which will mean they still finish 2nd and we finish 3rd.

Then again they are playing the Bloose so they may have already checked out for the year.

 

[Ridley]

No, they still hate Port more

The reverse applies as well. One of the very first messages I got after we won the 2017 flag was from a Port supporter. It just said "thank you".

 

[Number8]

Something to keep in mind: if, as expected, North Melbourne loses to the Eagles in the first game of the round, Adelaide will lose first pick in the draft if it beats Richmond. No real incentive for either North or the Crows to go super hard.

 

[AngryAnt]

The reverse applies as well. One of the very first messages I got after we won the 2017 flag was from a Port supporter. It just said "thank you".

Yeah, the Big Footy Power board 2017 Grand Final thread is good reading, they loved what we did.

 

[AngryAnt]

Port may very well lose but there is also the chance that Brisbane will lose too. They have nothing to play for as Top 2 and a home final is sewn up. They may decide not to go 100%.

Which will mean they still finish 2nd and we finish 3rd.

Then again they are playing the Bloose so they may have already checked out for the year.

Yeah. My tip is the top four (port, lions, us, cats) all win this week and positions don't change. There is the bye week to come so plenty of time to rest up. And apart from Port we are all playing teams whose seasons are done.

 

[MD Jazz]

Yeah. My tip is the top four (port, lions, us, cats) all win this week and positions don't change. There is the bye week to come so plenty of time to rest up. And apart from Port we are all playing teams whose seasons are done.

Sydney aren't hopeless, could we dare to dream they roll the cats?

 

[Ripplestick]

Port chucking it v Pies is a possibility.

With a few players back I can't see why the Pies can't beat Port this week, even more so with the game away from Radalaide.