PRE 2018 Phantom Draft

[bullus_hit]

Carlton

1. Jack Lukosius
66. Tom Lewis
68. Ben Silvagni
72. Michael Gibbons

Carlton face a monumental decision in this year's draft, overlooking Jack Lukosious has the potential to be another red faced moment for the Blues, particularly given their forward line lacks a true KP match winner. If they do decide to go small then I would be thinking outside of the box which would involve cutting a deal with Port, pick 1 for pick 5 & 10. That should be enough to stitch up Bailey Smith & Jordan Clark, a perfect combination to replace the ageing Marc Murphy & Kade Simpson. Don't think they have the gonads for such a play but that's exactly what I'd be doing if a midfielder was at the top of the wishlist.

As for Smokey's selections, picking Lukosius the smart play, if in doubt always go tall, you never really know when another opportunity like this will come about. He's unlikely to lose value even in the event of home sickness. Development an issue for Carlton but one just has to hope all the deadwood gets cleared out, the demise of Jacob Weitering a case in point, he's gone from 3rd in the Rising Star to a regular VFL player. The Blues really are a basket case.

Tom Lewis is a great selection this late, contested work is a highlight & he hasn't disgraced himself at Reserves level. Ben Silvagni obviously gets a golden ticket but it could get embarrasing when SOS eventually gets his marching orders. The fact he has a GWS sister team tells me he responds to mistakes like Augustus Gloop in Wonka Land. Michael Gibbons deserving of a chance and couldn't be much worse than the likes of Nick Graham, in fact you could just about guarantee he will have a much better impact.

Overall a hard one to grade but hard to fault all things considered.

Grade : A

 

[bullus_hit]

Collingwood

16. Isaac Quaynor
32. Will Kelly
87. Tom Joyce

Nothing really surprising about these selections, zero doubts Quaynor & Kelly will be Magpies. In this draft Collingwood have gone into deficit but that seems to have been addressed with the recent trade to Geelong. As for Quaynor, probably rated a bit higher by the media than is justifiable, I reckon we may even see a Naish scenario given Quaynor's form dropped off a little bit towards the end of the year. Worth noting that Sam Sturt gave him a lesson to forget in the TAC finals. Kelly a solid selection & should go in the 20-40 bracket. It was difficult finding value at pick 87 but Joyce was the guy I felt had fairly decent upside compared to others. His form at state level last year was excellent for an underager having averaged 21 touches for WA. Despite missing a fair chunk of footy with a hip injury his stoppage work & slick hands indicates a player who has several draftable qualities. Being an AFL Academy member I'd also expect his recovery to be professionally managed.

Grade : Unrated

 

[Smoking Aces]

Great work BH.

Just on Sam Sturt, I see his name mentioned elsewhere as a potential selection for us.

What can you tell us about him?

 

[bullus_hit]

Great work BH.

Just on Sam Sturt, I see his name mentioned elsewhere as a potential selection for us.

What can you tell us about him?

Fantastic finish to the year with the Stingrays, plays like Will Hayward who was also a late bolter. He's a flanker so I don't need to remind anyone of the risks but he also fits into the Jordan Clark category of having limited preparation due to cricket commitments. Big upside, big risk, given 16 clubs have interviewed him he's a monty to get drafted but not sure I would take him over a midfielder.

 

[Scoop]

Great work BH.

Just on Sam Sturt, I see his name mentioned elsewhere as a potential selection for us.

What can you tell us about him?

I've got a write up on him I'll try and paste tonight. Struggling to paste a word doc on to here. I took him on the phantom draft for Melbourne (midfield flush) but I agree with Bully, for us it wouldn't be the right fit. At our second pick, in a heartbeat. Won't be there tho. I reckon he is top 15.

 

[Smoking Aces]

Thanks BH & SCOOP.

Looking forward to that write up SCOOP.

 

[K3]

I've got a write up on him I'll try and paste tonight. Struggling to paste a word doc on to here. I took him on the phantom draft for Melbourne (midfield flush) but I agree with Bully, for us it wouldn't be the right fit. At our second pick, in a heartbeat. Won't be there tho. I reckon he is top 15.

Paste into notepad and then out of that into her mate. Should do the trick.

 

[Scoop]

Paste into notepad and then out of that into her mate. Should do the trick.

Nope!! Mega frustrating!!

 

[Baloo]

Save the word file as a text or *.txt file. The cut and paste. It it fails it might be too long. Cut it in half.

 

[Tiger Ghost]

Richmond Football Club Pick #21 select
Connor McFadyen (Qlnd Brisbane Academy)

190cm 88kgs DOB 4/12/00
Inside big bodied midfielder thats dangerous when playing foward, Allies best ball winner during the under 18's championships as well as performing admirably in the neafl
dangerous when playing foward and has the ability to read the ball extremely well in flight.
Contested marking,Ball winning,Clearances and stoppage work is extremely good and is the type of inside big body mid that Richmond are missing.

Probably a slight reach but so was Patrick Cripps at the time and when the player you want is there just need to take the player
Stocker ,RCD ,West & Duursma were the other players that i had at our 1st pick with RCD my preferred choice

Connor is also a bottom age player thats played this year as a 17 year old and just qualifies for this draft by 3 weeks so the upside in both his development and growth is very very high

That would be a massive reach, a big dry reach
Averaged 8 disposals a game

 

[Scoop]

I think on the night Sam Sturt goes a lot higher than pick 28. He has dedicated himself to cricket and this is his first year of full time football. And he was no mug getting all the way to the under-19 team in Victoria's amateurs league. It's incredible that he has only played four games TAC footy this year. Played a lot of footy for Peninsula Grammar. Starring for AGSV in the annual APS vs. AGSV school football match was the moment that most in the industry begin to understand how special he could be. In this game he showed blistering pace and amazing agility for a player who is 189cm . But he has never done an AFL preseason, so there was no testing data. The AFL combine showed this in game glimpses to be backed up with hard data as Sturt was a standout, placing first in the running vertical jump right foot, a huge 91 cm) and finishing inside the top 10 for the 20 meter sprint and the agility testing. For six years he's been dedicated to cricket. So the scope for improvement is huge in a footballing environment. Throughout the year he has shown an outstanding ability overhead and it's not hard to see why with such outstanding athletic traits. Wonderful left foot. Great goal sense & surprising smarts for someone who so little footballing knowledge. Pretty one sided but he finds time. The template is all there. Think Jack Gunston, think Adelaide Tom Lynch, maybe even Jayden Stephson. That connector types that drifts around between the arcs but has the ability to run and jump for the big grab. Match up nightmare.

Why Melbourne? They have multiple picks here and can swing for the fences. They don't have a player like Sturt in the forward half. If Petracca moves into the midfield in two years, Sturt can play that third forward option and be something different. The Dees just moved on Hogan because he was deemed (wrongly) surplus to needs and they are happy to build around McDonald and Weideman as their keys. Sturt is everything that a modern forward line needs.

 

[bullus_hit]

Essendon

40. Essendon - Marlion Pickett
63. Essendon - Zac Foot
79. Essendon - Jack Ross

The Bombers have spoiled the party for Gold Coast & West Coast here, Pickett has been courted by both clubs and is a near certainty to get drafted as a plug & play mature ager. His form in the WAFL finals was every bit as good as Tim Kelly & throughout the year he's been leaping like Liam & taking screamers on players shoulders. Definite x-factor on offer & the Bombers can add even more armoury to their impressive midfield. Heppell, Smith, Merrett, Parish & Shiel already looks formidable but to add another classy onballer gives Essendon an A grade engine room.

Zac Foot is another gun Stingray who should get selected, especially given pressure forwards are now in vogue. Super impressed by his game in the TAC GF, seems to make things happen & always presents on the overlap. Good value at this point in the draft. Jack Ross is another good pick & was someone I had on my own shortlist for Collingwood's final pick. Taking out Oakleigh's B&F & getting a late call-up to the state combine suggests he will be an AFL footballer in November, will suit any team looking for an inside bull.

Grade : A

 

[D85]

Thoughts:

For Quaynor, I do think he will slide a bit, worth noting that he had a few thumb issues in the backhalf of the year, so it limited his ability to spoil and the guard limited his ability to mark.

Ben Silvagni, only getting a gig coz his name is Silvagni and daddy is pulling the strings

 

[bullus_hit]

Fremantle

17. Fremantle - Bailey Williams
36. Fremantle - Luke Foley
47. Fremantle - Thomas Berry
62. Fremantle - Mitch Maguire
76. Fremantle - Will Hammil

At pick 17 I think Fremantle have nailed it, with Sandi just about ready for a retirement village & Rory Lobb the new kid on the block, having another KF/Ruck makes perfect sense. Could definitely see Lobb & Williams teaming up in the long term with perhaps Lobb taking the lions share of the ruck duties. Both players are outstanding contested marks & both would require some careful planning when assigning suitable defenders. With West Coast proving the Lycett/Vardy combination was a GF winning move I predict the days of the lone ranger ruck is slowly coming to an end. Richmond also suffered in the PF & having Grigg as back-up makes little sense now that the ruck rules have changed. As for Bailey's forward credentials, don't need to add too much given I've spruiked him for Richmond's first pick but let's just say that highly athletic talls who can take pack marks don't grow on trees. I'm also confident his goal kicking woes were just an aberration & getting his conversion up around the 60% mark is a realistic proposition.

At pick 36 the Dockers take Luke Foley who for my money should go a lot higher than this. Granted he's an overager but it's his composure which stands out for me. Never one to panic under pressure he generally uses his hands to great effect & has a handy knack of linking up with the outside runners. His height is another great advantage and is now listed at 189cm which isn't far off the likes of Pendles & Josh Kennedy.

Thomas Berry is the brother of Jarrod & both have captained the Rebels which is an interesting factoid. Thomas has missed the year with a wrist injury but from what I've seen he possesses many of the same traits as his brother. I'd also expect him to follow in Jarrod's footsteps and slot straight into the midfield, particularly given Freo are light on for true A graders.

Maguire has been snubbed the last two years but this year could be the year given he has dominated the NEAFL. Admittedly this is a weak comp but smalls are more in focus now & Maguire is quick, dangerous in front of goals & still has youth on his side. Will Hammill is my kind of speculative pick, he finished top 10 in the sprint, running vertical, standing vertical, agility & yo-yo. Being a smart intercept defender there's definitely a role if he puts in the hard yards.

Grade : A

 

[bullus_hit]

Geelong

14. Geelong - Xavier Duursma
43. Geelong - Oscar Brownless
53. Geelong - Hugo Munn
54. Geelong - Zane Barzen
67. Geelong - Mihail Lochwiak
82. Geelong - Jake Aarts

The Cats are in a strange spot in the draft, the guy picked at 14 could come from anywhere in the top 30 based on the PRE selections, Duursma no exception. Now to be honest I don't have Duursma this high myself, that's in part because I can't really find a clear role for him. Currently I see him as a wingman or attacking back flank, that usually means a slight downgrade from the genuine mids. In saying that I've bumped him into the top 20 based on some quality games in the final weeks of the TAC competition, in fact I'd say his form has steadily improved since the state carnival. He's pretty well rounded in terms of his inside/outside credentials and doesn't really possess any weaknesses apart from perhaps blazing away from time to time. On this count I couldn't help think of Rhys Palmer when going over some old footage, hopefully he learns to be a bit more selective when attempting the lower percentage plays. Interestingly he's probably a Stephen Wells prototype & it wouldn't surprise me one bit if Geelong picked him at 14.

Pick 43 is Oscar Brownless who will be hoping to have half the career Billy had, he's more a medium sized forward but can also run through the midfield from time to time. Hugo Munn is another one of these SA high fliers, he's a a very big lad & is capable of taking a screamer, something which he has already exhibited at senior level. Some question marks over mobility, I don't really see him as a relief ruckman so he will need to develop as a genuine power forward. Probably more of a rookie type but you never know. Barzen has dropped off a bit since June, no doubting he has talent but he's another flanker who is more rookie territory for mine. Mihail Lochwiak has played a bit of reserves football and hasn't looked out of place, he's certainly an attacking type, I have slight concerns about his disposal but I like the fact he takes the game on. Jake Aarts invited to the state combine so he's some chance of getting drafted.

Overall a solid draft but probably lacking genuine mids & that's something I think the Cats need to focus on. With Kelly going next year, Selwood on the decline, Danger on the decline & Gaz on the decline there's potential for a bottom 4 finish unless some fresh talent is brought in. Whilst I think Dahlhaus will help somewhat he too had a wretched year in 2018.

Grade : B-

 

[Tigers of Old]

Geelong

Overall a solid draft but probably lacking genuine mids & that's something I think the Cats need to focus on. With Kelly going next year, Selwood on the decline, Danger on the decline & Gaz on the decline there's potential for a bottom 4 finish unless some fresh talent is brought in. Whilst I think Dahlhaus will help somewhat he too had a wretched year in 2018.

Grade : B-

Cheers Bully. :thumbsup

 

[Brodders17]

Fremantle

17. Fremantle - Bailey Williams
36. Fremantle - Luke Foley
47. Fremantle - Thomas Berry
62. Fremantle - Mitch Maguire
76. Fremantle - Will Hammil

At pick 17 I think Fremantle have nailed it, with Sandi just about ready for a retirement village & Rory Lobb the new kid on the block, having another KF/Ruck makes perfect sense. Could definitely see Lobb & Williams teaming up in the long term with perhaps Lobb taking the lions share of the ruck duties. Both players are outstanding contested marks & both would require some careful planning when assigning suitable defenders. With West Coast proving the Lycett/Vardy combination was a GF winning move I predict the days of the lone ranger ruck is slowly coming to an end. Richmond also suffered in the PF & having Grigg as back-up makes little sense now that the ruck rules have changed. As for Bailey's forward credentials, don't need to add too much given I've spruiked him for Richmond's first pick but let's just say that highly athletic talls who can take pack marks don't grow on trees. I'm also confident his goal kicking woes were just an aberration & getting his conversion up around the 60% mark is a realistic proposition.

At pick 36 the Dockers take Luke Foley who for my money should go a lot higher than this. Granted he's an overager but it's his composure which stands out for me. Never one to panic under pressure he generally uses his hands to great effect & has a handy knack of linking up with the outside runners. His height is another great advantage and is now listed at 189cm which isn't far off the likes of Pendles & Josh Kennedy.

Thomas Berry is the brother of Jarrod & both have captained the Rebels which is an interesting factoid. Thomas has missed the year with a wrist injury but from what I've seen he possesses many of the same traits as his brother. I'd also expect him to follow in Jarrod's footsteps and slot straight into the midfield, particularly given Freo are light on for true A graders.

Maguire has been snubbed the last two years but this year could be the year given he has dominated the NEAFL. Admittedly this is a weak comp but smalls are more in focus now & Maguire is quick, dangerous in front of goals & still has youth on his side. Will Hammill is my kind of speculative pick, he finished top 10 in the sprint, running vertical, standing vertical, agility & yo-yo. Being a smart intercept defender there's definitely a role if he puts in the hard yards.

Grade : A

Thanks for your thought Bully.
I went best available each pick. Williams though is the perfect fit for Freo. He has got a couple of years to develop, then should slot in alongside Hogan up forward sharing ruck duties with Lobb. I see Lobb as a better ruck than forward, and this should become more apparent as he continues to age (think Ottens). having said that he will always be effective as a forward and having Williams to swap with will work well.
(I will disagree with you tho about the 2 rucks. It worked this year for WEagles, and if you have a viable forward/ruck option that is great, but I dont think all teams will swing back to playing 2 pure rucks.)

Foley and Berry will play AFL. obviously remains to be seen how good they are but they were the best options available.
Maguire is a risk. taking guys based on NEAFL form is fraught cos the standard is average but he showed as a junior he was a talent and has continued to improve. his runnning and goal kicking ability are 2 big plusses.
Hammill will probably be off the list in a couple of years but at pick 76 he is worth the risk as he has some great traits.

 

[bullus_hit]

Gold Coast

2. Gold Coast - Sam Walsh
3. Gold Coast - Max King
6. Gold Coast - Ben King
28. Gold Coast - Ely Smith
34. Gold Coast - Jack Bytel
75. Gold Coast - Brett Bewley

Don't think I could have designed a better outcome both in terms of list needs & taking care of the homesickness factor. Let's face it, GC are in a terrible situation having lost their captain, vice captain & probably their best clearance player in Lyons (a self inflicted wound I might add). Dew is clearly in no mood for mind games & faces even more challenges in addressing the culture of overpaid battlers stretching the salary cap to ridiculous proportions. There is a silver lining in all this, they have 3 picks in the top 6 and all have the potential to emerge as the premier player of the draft.

At pick 2 they have grabbed the outstanding midfielder in this year's pool, Walsh is also a born leader and will hopefully bring stability to a group that succumbs to defections year in, year out. Walsh has done everything this season apart from winning the Morrish, on that count he only narrowly lost to Stocker who had the benefit of one extra game. He's the type you can build a team around & there's no denying that GC are screaming out for some A listers to compete in the middle. The next big issue is the spine, Lynch & May leave a hole the size of the Grand Canyon but with the King twins you have some glimmer of hope that 2-3 years from now the spine will be seen as a strength rather than a weakness. The likelihood of both being poached is also remote so strategically this makes perfect sense. There is risk however and that is the fact that Max is coming off a knee reconstruction. This becomes even more worrisome given both the twins need to pile on 15kg. With that extra weight comes extra strain on ligaments & some players have a genetic weakness that no amount of surgery will rectify.

At pick 28 GC have selected another inside bull in Ely Smith, have spoken a fair bit about Smith in another thread but I think pick 28 isn't unreasonably high. He's a late bloomer & only received a call-up for state duties right at the death, his performance was impressive just the same. Testing at the combine also confirmed he has the athleticism to match his aggressive approach & I'd expect him to play next year. Bytel is another good pick provided his stress fractures have been properly managed, he's up there with the best clearance players in the pool and starred in the All-Stars match last year. Bewley is a decent plug & play & has shown he's a cut above VFL standard.

Grade : A

 

[bullus_hit]

GWS

10. Greater Western Sydney - Jordan Clark
12. Greater Western Sydney - Riley Collier-Dawkins
23. Greater Western Sydney - Chayce Jones
29. Greater Western Sydney - Curtis Taylor
37. Greater Western Sydney - Kieren Briggs

This is an interesting batch with a great deal of upside. At pick 10 GWS are clearly planning for the retirement of Heath Shaw and I have few doubts that Jordan Clark can fill that sizeable void. As far as damaging kicks are concerned Clark is your classic zone buster, he can pinpoint his passes from 50 metres & more often that not uses his long kicking game to his team's advantage. He's also very competent at winning the contested ball so if he needs to play a close checking role there shouldn't be too many worries.The fact he hasn't had a decent preseason also indicates further upside so despite being a flanker I don't see any problem selecting him in the top 10. I think the importance of the rebounding role has generally been undersold in previous drafts and that mindset clearly needs a rethink.

Riley Collier-Dawkins has been perched in my top 10 all year right up until the national combine, then his 2km time filtered through & it was time to make an honest reassessment. Being 1 minute slower than the fastest runner makes me question his ability to slot seamlessly into the midfield, just how long it will take is anyone's guess. Now there's two schools of thought here, one is his production has been low due to aerobic limitations & once he improves then the disposal numbers should naturally follow. The other more pessimistic view is that he will never reach the levels required & will need to rely on increasing his forward impact. It's a tough call & to be honest I hope he gets taken before Richmond's pick so I'm not forced into deciding one way or another. I just get the feeling he's a boom/bust guy and the recruiter who takes him will either look like a genius or look like a dill.

Chayce Jones is a very solid selection here, he's the Lachlan Fogarty of this year's draft and without being a superstar he just goes about his game with a minimum of fuss. If you want a best 22 guy who will be around in 5 years then you can't go wrong picking Jones. Curtis Taylor is another great polariser, I personally don't get the love, particularly from Twomey, but I guess pick 29 isn't a bad spot in the draft to be picking a medium sized forward who can run hot or cold. It's certainly not Lennon territory so I doubt any recruiter will lose his job but I still reckon there's a few mids around the mark who could fulfill the same role, Luke Foley is one who immediately springs to mind.

Briggs is an Academy selection & the perfect replacement for Mummy, probably the best pure ruck in the draft & was the Allies MVP. Just got to hope he doesn't develop any bad habits if you get my drift.

Grade : B+

 

[bullus_hit]

Hawthorn

49.Ben Jarvis
56. Irving Mosquito

Pretty low key affair from the Hawks after their blockbuster trade period. Having secured Scully, Scrimshaw & Wingard they can probably just sit back & pick the best available irrespective of position. In Jarvis I think they have picked a player who could defy his lowish draft position, he's a good all-round athlete who can even pinch hit in the ruck, something which he was forced to do against Vic Country. He's also agile & particularly strong overhead. If we're talking Champion Data then Jarvis is up there with the best and has been identified as one of the steals of the draft. Anything from the third round onwards represents good value. Irving Mosquito is an Academy selection & is a crafty little goal sneak with a name which almost ensures a cult following.

Grade : B