Let me have one more go at articulating this.
We will take it as read that our talent identification and draftee profiling is first class. Competition best, if you like.
When we make a pick we nail it, take the right kid, that suits our needs and ticks all the boxes every time. (Even though that is not even close to the case, no matter how good you are)
However in most cases, picking the right kid at that point in time is not particularly beneficial. Only a very small percentage have an impact at 18, we are drafting for players who will develop into good consistent players at about the time they can reach 70-100 games, so 22,23,24 years of age and then if we are going to be a really successful side, the premiership age average is more like 26-28.
So when you are taking that kid in the draft, the art isn't the here and now, it is what are they going to be like in 5 and 10 years time.
Think about you and the people you know and how they changed as people over the decade from when they were 18. How accurately could you have predicated how their personalities and lives would develop?
So let's start with the biggest piece of luck of all, the physical. When you pick those kids out of the draft, tell me which one is going to do a knee at 19 and miss 18 months of footy, setting his development back irreparably? Which one is going to cop a few knocks which turn into a susceptibility to concussion and end their career? Which one has a chemical imbalance that is going to lead to mental health issues? Which one breaks a leg, develops a stress fracture, tears a muscle and picks up some scar tissue that causes it to become chronic?
Medical screenings? Physical assessments? Injury history? Not at all useful in most of those instances.
So there is your first huge piece of luck that's required. Those draftees need to be healthy enough to be developed into players and then to play when you need them. They also need to not be injured at the wrong times or at the same times. You also can't have your more senior players injured which then requires the kids to play before they are ready.
And that's only a tiny part of the future prediction. Tell me which kid you draft is going to move out of home, get a taste of independence and alcohol and all the other things that can turn an 18 year olds head and completely lose all the motivation and dedication they had previously?
Show me which one enrols in a university course and after three years of mixing with other students and discussing the meaning of life decides football isn't really for them?
Tell me which ones can't stop reading newspapers and watching TV footy shows, which ones can't get off social media.
Who is going to be a model citizen, develop beautifully then start to have some success and recognition, have doors open and opportunities present and then lose focus? Who is going to want to earn the cash from sporties or sponsors work? Who is going to develop business opportunities outside of footy that take time and focus?
Which players are going to like each other and dislike each other? Who will grow apart as they get older? Who is going to like or dislike the coaches? Which player's girlfriend is not going to like another girlfriend? Who is going to meet a girl that pushes them to ask for more money? Which ones are going to be loyal? Which ones are going to resent a team mates contract or success?
Who is going to be married with kids later in their career and able to take in and mentor draftees in a settled environment? Who is still going to be living as a bachelor and not want to take that burden on? Who will be a good influence on draftees? Who will be a bad one?
It goes on and on and on and on. The odds stacked against making it as an AFL player, let alone a successful one, let alone an ultimately successful one are huge.
And this is where the argument goes it's culture and leadership and development and all those things and yes, they are important and they can mitigate and eliminate lots of things but they are only as good as the individual's response to them and one unequivocal fact is that despite it all, human beings will go whichever way they ultimately choose.
We started forming our 2017 premiership side in 2006. It was over a decade worth of negotiating all of the physical, mental, spiritual, social, financial and other challenges to get to a position where we had 50 odd guys on our list capable of winning a premiership. And even then any number of factors still had to click for us to be able to do it.
If you don't think there's a good chunk of chance in that then I'd suggest you head into an AFL club and ask for a six or seven figure contract to sign and deliver them a flag.
