General Trade Discussion 2022

[123cups]

We have an excellent foundation, and now we need elite talent as a non-negotiable otherwise there's no point in aiming to compete at the pointy end of he season.

Since we're not bottoming out, we either need to:

- trade for Pick 1-3

- trade for former top 3 pick who is still young (e.g. Taranto)

- pay the salary cost for a free agent (but they're older, so you have them for a shorter time)

There's really no way around the above.

 

[tigersnake]

We know exactly what we're getting and exactly what we're paying.

I forget what the figures are but from memory its a 35% chance of drafting a good player with a pick between 9 and 20 as measured by 150 games. So a less than even money chance we get one 150 gamer with both picks.

Then there is the quality issue, plenty of players play 150 games who aren't as good as TT.

Then there is the premiership window issue, we need seasoned, big bodied, experienced players now, not in 2 to 5 years.

Its a no brainer AFAIC.

 

[gold1]

We have an excellent foundation, and now we need elite talent as a non-negotiable otherwise there's no point in aiming to compete at the pointy end of he season.

Since we're not bottoming out, we either need to:

- trade for Pick 1-3

- trade for former top 3 pick who is still young (e.g. Taranto)

- pay the salary cost for a free agent (but they're older, so you have them for a shorter time)

There's really no way around the above.

I think the team is at another stage to win a couple of flags back to back just like 73,74. Back then we added the likes of Stewart,Hunt,McGhie, to help the younger brigade learn the ropes and achieve success.Like to think Taranto,Hopper and a couple of other experienced players will help our younger brigade of Sonsie,Bauer,Ryan and others to wear the medal incoming years.

 

[Redford]

We know exactly what we're getting and exactly what we're paying.

I forget what the figures are but from memory its a 35% chance of drafting a good player with a pick between 9 and 20 as measured by 150 games. So a less than even money chance we get one 150 gamer with both picks.

Then there is the quality issue, plenty of players play 150 games who aren't as good as TT.

Then there is the premiership window issue, we need seasoned, big bodied, experienced players now, not in 2 to 5 years.

Its a no brainer AFAIC.

And that’s exactly what Blair and co. are thinking.

 

[daniel30]

Jack Bytel thoughts out of contract at saints really like him just bit injury prone.

 

[mrposhman]

Grundy might be a premiership player next year, Mitchell even money to match the output of Taranto. Have you considered how our season may unfold if Nank gets injured?

Grundy will fix Melbournes forward line issues will he? They already dominate the midfield in most games, they just screw up when moving the ball inside 50. Grundy will not fix any of the issues as to why Melbourne failed this year.

 

[bullus_hit]

Grundy will fix Melbournes forward line issues will he? They already dominate the midfield in most games, they just screw up when moving the ball inside 50. Grundy will not fix any of the issues as to why Melbourne failed this year.

Two gun rucks in the same team? I expect Gawn to play the Luke Jackson role & spend more time forward, Grundy is an absolute steal, a proven finals performer & a 20 touch midfielder when the ball hits the turf. Getting him & Tom Mitchell would have added truckloads to our set up, it wouldn't affect our premium picks either. This is the way to rebuild & also have one last tilt at the silverware.

 

[Leysy Days]

For a number of clear reasons Grundy is a very poor fit for us at this point in time.

 

[Leysy Days]

Correct, he got squeezed out by better footballers, if he can't make it as a prime mover for GWS I fail to see how he's worth 2 top 20 picks.

No he wasn't.

He was moved out for periods of games for two reasons:

1) He can play other positions, a lot of the other GWS mids can't.

2) Their season was shot very early. They rightly prioritised giving kids game time in their ahead of a player they all knew was leaving.

 

[checkside]

You can still have a tilt without selling the farm. Plenty of attractive offers, Grundy looking like a steal, Tom Mitchell another bargain basement player. These deals are the ones you make when it's almost curtain time, not selling out the future this year & next.

Grundy might come cheapish if your willing to take on his salary. Over a mil a year for a almost. 29 year old Ruckman for 5 more years. He is the same age as Nank. No thanks.

Tom Mitchell, about to turn 30 on a 800k contract. Can win a clearance but doesn’t go forward with it. Largely ineffectual player these days. Also no thanks.

Surely you aren’t serious.

 

[WesternTiger]

The Suns generally offer a value added service, dealing with them usually ends well - Prestia, Caddy, Wright, Brodie, Jack Martin, Hall, Scrimshaw & Lynch have all justified their existence. There's usually value to be found. GWS on the other hand tend to dump damaged goods onto the market and dress it up like a grand final parade down Swanston. Their deals generally garbage & I haven't even discussed Patton & Boyd who were also dud missiles, although Boyd's grand final performance probably enough to placate the Doggies hierarchy & supporter base.

So that's two dud GWS players that have helped their new team win a premiership?

 

[bullus_hit]

For a number of clear reasons Grundy is a very poor fit for us at this point in time.

How so? Our ruck stocks are threadbare & I don't buy into the argument that two quality rucks is a liability, Melbourne will be set for the next 4-5 years.

 

[Willo]

We know exactly what we're getting and exactly what we're paying.

I forget what the figures are but from memory its a 35% chance of drafting a good player with a pick between 9 and 20 as measured by 150 games. So a less than even money chance we get one 150 gamer with both picks.

Then there is the quality issue, plenty of players play 150 games who aren't as good as TT.

Then there is the premiership window issue, we need seasoned, big bodied, experienced players now, not in 2 to 5 years.

Its a no brainer AFAIC.

AVERAGE CAREER GAMES PLAYED (1993-2008 AFL National Drafts)

Pick 1: 239.6

Pick 2: 208.3

Pick 3-5: 162.3

Pick 6-10: 122.9

Pick 11-20: 119.2

Pick 21-30: 81.1
Further details https://www.draftguru.com.au/analysis/pick-value-comparison/all-time

 

[tigersnake]

AVERAGE CAREER GAMES PLAYED (1993-2008 AFL National Drafts)

Pick 1: 239.6

Pick 2: 208.3

Pick 3-5: 162.3

Pick 6-10: 122.9

Pick 11-20: 119.2

Pick 21-30: 81.1
Further details https://www.draftguru.com.au/analysis/pick-value-comparison/all-time

In a nutshell, the odds of drafting a 200 gamer, which is a fair proxy for a champion are, from the data:

Pick 1-2: 69 per cent

Pick 3-5: 38 per cent

Pick 6-10: 28 per cent

Pick 11-20: 27 per cent

Pick 21-30: 13 per cent

Pick 31-50: 15 per cent

 

[checkside]

How so? Our ruck stocks are threadbare & I don't buy into the argument that two quality rucks is a liability, Melbourne will be set for the next 4-5 years.

Rhys Stanley, nank, Lycett, jordan Roughead etc
Last 10 premiership teams top ruckman. Other than Gawn maybe none were on over a mil a year.

Stanley
Gawn
Nank
Nank
Lycette
Nank
Roughead
Natanui
McEvoy
McEvoy

 

[bullus_hit]

Grundy might come cheapish if your willing to take on his salary. Over a mil a year for a almost. 29 year old Ruckman for 5 more years. He is the same age as Nank. No thanks.

Tom Mitchell, about to turn 30 on a 800k contract. Can win a clearance but doesn’t go forward with it. Largely ineffectual player these days. Also no thanks.

Surely you aren’t serious.

Collingwood will pay his salary in part, no pricier than Taranto & Hopper, was still at the top of his game prior to getting injured. He's probably the steal of the draft, especially given he's played some outstanding finals football. For icing he's potentially a player who could make a difference and I suspect he will give Melbourne an added string next season.

Mitchell & Taranto are very similar players, both have ok disposal but not brilliant, both don't really bounce or run and carry. If the premium we're paying is for Taranto's forward ability then we're paying for potential but just be reminded that he doesn't have a big body of work in this area. He's not a contested marking beast, he's actually pretty light on with fancy footwork & his kicking can let him down. Certainly not worth two top 20 picks in my view & probably inferior to Dunkley if we're talking dual position targets.

 

[St Kevin]

Neither of those blokes would keep our window open.

And with $5 million remaining on his contract, no one could possibly call Grundy a steal.

 

[IanG]

IMO Grundy is close to done physically, no way he's lasting 4-5 years.

 

[bullus_hit]

So that's two dud GWS players that have helped their new team win a premiership?

Well, if we're measuring life on one game then Boyd was worth it I suppose, if we're scrutinising that deal for future benchmarks then it probably didn't yield the desired results. If anything it confirms my view that GWS rarely lose when it comes to blockbuster deals, but if you honestly believe it will be different this time then we'll just have to wait and see.

 

[TigerForce]

IMO Grundy is close to done physically, no way he's lasting 4-5 years.

Yeah, I reckon Greedy Bundy's lost the plot since that contract deal was made. Hasn't performed well at all.