Well, watching the u18s closely and consistently, (NAB, Championships, various young players in state league games (which is surprisingly rare, see below), this year for the first time has been an eye opener. Because its my first time watching closely I can't compare to other years with any rigour, and I'd be interested to hear what those who do watch it closely every year think.
1) There is no player in this years draft who I'd give my left nut for, players who look like you could build a side around them. Theres a few I like, Cadman no 1 for me, and I like Humphrey, Is this the same most years? Or is it because its a down year? In the past there has been a few players who I prayed we'd get, Cotchy was the main one, Dusty too. But were they similar to say an Ashcroft/ Humphrey in their draft years, or are this years crop just not as good? Its hard to simplify, but I'll give it a crack, for me, the good players, say Ashcroft, Tsitas, don't have enough gamebreaker, and the gamebreakers, say BH, MP, don't have enough good.
2) My hunch is its a poor year, could be covid, could be just a poor year, could be a bit of both. Will be a lot of busts early, and more than usual hits late.
3) playing the percentages, its a good year to have traded out of the draft. Puts a big dollop of passionfruit icing on the Hopranto trade. I'd say it was always a key aspect of the move, but still, nice.
4) There is a fair dose of hivemind in the draft, again don't know if its every year, don't know if its more so this year, don't know if its related to cuts in the soft cap meaning less scouts. Quite a few players hyped on the basis of not much, I don't like to bag young hopefuls, and I won't much, but I wish them well, they are still good players even if they are overhyped, they might be a solid 3rd rounder hyped as a late first for example. But a few examples:
Ginbey, OK in the champs, 4 WAFL seniors games, 3 underwhelming 1 good. Good athlete obviously, but top 10 footy player? All things being equal, late 2nd early 3rd.
Phillipou, Good in the champs, 3 SANFL reserves games, All OK, didn't break any games open, and its reserves. ATBE, 2nd round.
Lachie Cowan, OK Champs, I'd call them solid, HBF. To my knowledge no senior football, all u18s. Not a mid, not a fwd, a Half back flanker. Check out his highlight real, 90 seconds in total, not much time to show your wares, and for a whole years work, 30 seconds are kick-ins. One third, kick-ins. ATBE, 3rd round.
What is the big standout of the 3 above? 188-192cm, as far as I can tell. Ginbey looks quick sometimes, Phillipou can take a mark, Cowan has a long kick, thats it.
Then there are quite a few, a lot actually, who are hyped on the back of a few good WAFL/ SANFL colts or u18s games, might only be half a dozen in some cases. In Victoria, senior football isn't required at all for your CV, NAB league and champs is all that matters, and attendance at an elite private school.
There is no Timmy Watson about this years draft. The man who played his 50th senior game for Essendon on his 18th Birthday. (Thats one of my favourite footy facts). I understand Timmy was a freak and times have changed...but still. Dusty used to dominate for Vic Country, the Pioneers AND Castlemaine seniors. And I don't think he went to Caulfield Grammar.
