-
IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
2020 AFL Draft
- Thread starter tigerman
- Start date
Real good story about Heath Chapman
'I play for him': Top-15 prospect on his biggest inspiration
Heath Chapman, who looks set to be an early draft choice this year, describes his bond with younger brother Jakewww.afl.com.au
Good size, elite decision making from the back half. Pace and run at 191cm. I know nothing and had only heard the lads name as a first rounder but after reading that and watching the highlights, he’s firmly on my watch list.
wow! Yes!
And my Oleg should seriously be considered for next game!
Yes, I also believe that all junior prospects should be judged on the quality of their mo'! Mucho importante!!!
Would you think there will be a few clubs trading out of the first round and also trading out early picks in this years draft @Scoop and @spook (and @ whoever) A lot of academy kids/fs. I say trade in. Also, do you recon given list sizes are dropping there will be a few clubs snapping up discarded players and looking for short term contract cheap trades until salary cap and list spots stabilise again? Or looking to trade earlier picks for known quantities? I think it may be a good year to trade in to the late first round and back our talented recruiters.
Pick 1 is 3000 points, less 20%discount for academy pick, so would cost them 2400 points. Based on current picks the price be around their 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick I think. Could be wrong, but that's a pretty big price to pay
Appears to be more than that, their pick value according to this link is 1964 so if they bid on him at 1 would need to take a 436 point penalty into the 2021 draft which comes off their 1st.
So they would pay a 1st, 2nd and 3rd this year and then their 1st next year (assuming they finish 7th again) would drop from Pick 12 to Pick 23.
Obviously they can trade this year either through favourable pick swaps or trade out players to give them some improvement in their draft hand but they don't have a strong draft position at this time.
If he is clearly the best player in the draft as he is touted, the Crows would be mad not to select him. If the Dogs don't match they get the best player; if they do match then the Crows just select the 2nd best player. It's a no lose situation for them and it forces an opponent to pony up a fair price for a NGA gimme.
I still can't believe that Melbourne didn't bid on Tom Green at pick 3 last year. From memory he was rated top 3; Rowell clear number one followed by Anderson and Green. GC were always going to draft the best mates to help with retention; smart move. But Melbourne should have selected Green and forced the Giants to pay a higher price. They still would have got Jackson at the next pick.
But then again it's Melbourne.
Good work Posh; even more reason for Adelaide to bid on Ugle-Hagan.
They'd have to trade into another first or second round pick this year somehow. Just how much are they willing to give up to get him would be the question.
They'd be hoping no bid comes until about pick 4
The only risk, and it's about marketing, feel good etc than a footy risk, is if Doggies match, then the Doggies have the #1 pick and all the feel good attention that goes with it. If they pick another then they get to have that Pick #1 feelgood story.
And we know as good as any team, when you come last, the excitement of Pick #1 is massive.
To state the obvious, the 2020 draft will be unique.
Looking at the state of each club's list and the challenges around selecting talent that has been less exposed than normal, it's an interesting exercise to see which clubs hold the best hand.
If we agree that there is a higher degree of risk than normal attached to the picks from the second-round onwards, here's is my short summary of how each club stands.
Adelaide: holds 1, 8, 20, 30, 44, 48, 60
Desperately needs a good draft. Should do well with pick 1 (Ugle-Hagan or Thilthorpe). Might select Tyson Edwards' son later in the draft, where the picks become somewhat of a lottery. Supporters must hope the club has done its homework.
Well positioned
Brisbane: holds 18, 19, 38, 64
No great pressure on the Lions at this draft. Talk is they may try to trade up. No obvious list weaknesses apart from pace and perhaps a touch of outside class.
Very well positioned
Carlton: holds 7, 27, 45
With Zac Williams coming in, they've replaced Kade Simpson nicely. Desperately need to help Cripps and should target a midfielder with pick 7. Needs to have faith in its recent draftees and get games into them.
Well positioned
Collingwood: holds 12, 34, 37, 68
Not many list issues but need a goal kicker or two. Can see them trying to package up 34 and 37 into something better.
Well positioned
Essendon: holds 6, 41, 61, 69, 70
In a world of hurt yet again... and only one decent pick to try and fix it. Simply must offload Daniher and Fantasia, and extract maximum value. Saad would also net them either a decent player or pick. Should target the best available tall forward then midfield pace. Could also do with a couple of two-way runners. No quick rebound for this mob, happily.
Poorly positioned
Fremantle: holds 11, 28
Looks to have been an outstanding draft for the Dockers last year but they still hold a nice hand this year. Can see them going for pace with their first pick and a ruck with their second. Building well.
Very well positioned
Geelong: holds 10, 15, 16, 33
Not the ideal draft to hold picks in this range and be rocking a list that needs to be regenerated sooner rather than later. Club needs good talls right now (ruck, KPD, KPF). Recruiters will earn their money here. Do they bundle picks to trade up or find a way to improve their trade hand next year? A real conundrum for the Cats. Do they come knocking for CCJ?
Well positioned but needs to pull the right rein
Gold Coast: holds 5, 24, 35, 72
Another good hand to top up last year's mega haul. List taking shape nicely.
Very well positioned
GWS: holds 40, 46, 66
Yuck. Paid a heavy price for Ash and Green last year. Will get good compensation for Williams. Needs run out of half back and players with heart. Could be in for years of mediocrity.
Very poorly positioned
Hawthorn: holds 4, 21, 39, 42, 59, 67
Simply has to trust its junior football recruiters for a change. By all accounts picking late will be like hitting a dartboard while blindfolded so must make its first couple of picks count and perhaps bundle up some mid-range picks for a ready-made player or better draft position. List lacks pace, a key forward and a key defender.
Well positioned
Melbourne: holds 23, 47, 62, 63
A lousy hand for a club that keeps coming up short. Great draft last year (Pickett, Rivers, Jackson). Needs more pace and elite ball use. Probably won't find either with this range of picks.
Very poorly positioned
North Melbourne: holds 2, 9, 25, 57, 65
Having delisted so many players already and with an expectation more will be traded, the Kangas need a good draft. Have the chance to smash this draft out of the park. List has holes everywhere. Must target a key forward to support exciting prospects Zurhaar, Thomas and Taylor.
Very well positioned
Port Adelaide: holds 26, 29, 43, 50, 55
A dangerous hand to be honest. Access to Lachlan Jones a bonus, and they desperately need better tall defenders, but matching an expected bid for Jones will be costly.
Poorly positioned
Richmond: holds 17, 31, 53, 71
No obvious needs although aren't we glad Balta came on quickly this year. Talk is Rioli will come to us, along with defender Baxter. Will get more deeply involved if Graham and CCJ move on but it wouldn't surprise if the club tries to work in player swaps rather than draft picks.
Very well positioned
St Kilda: holds 14, 58, 73
Traded well last year while maintaining a good hand in this draft. Has some ageing players (Ryder, Hanneberry, Carlisle, Savage, Geary, etc) but a nicely rounded list.
Well positioned
Sydney: holds 3, 22, 54, 56
Quietly building a great list. Outrageous access to local talent. Should win the draft in a canter.
Very well positioned
WCE: holds 32, 51, 52
Sold the farm for Kelly last year, which looks better now due to the difficult draft ahead. List in good shape.
Well positioned
Western Bulldogs: holds 13, 36, 49
Luckily will land Ugle-Hagan but will pay a big price, and as good as he apparently is, key forward isn't a glaring list weakness. The club needs to add pace and hardness to its list ASAP. Wouldn't be surprised if they shop an unexpected name or two to trade back into an improved draft position.
Poorly positioned
Looking at the state of each club's list and the challenges around selecting talent that has been less exposed than normal, it's an interesting exercise to see which clubs hold the best hand.
If we agree that there is a higher degree of risk than normal attached to the picks from the second-round onwards, here's is my short summary of how each club stands.
Adelaide: holds 1, 8, 20, 30, 44, 48, 60
Desperately needs a good draft. Should do well with pick 1 (Ugle-Hagan or Thilthorpe). Might select Tyson Edwards' son later in the draft, where the picks become somewhat of a lottery. Supporters must hope the club has done its homework.
Well positioned
Brisbane: holds 18, 19, 38, 64
No great pressure on the Lions at this draft. Talk is they may try to trade up. No obvious list weaknesses apart from pace and perhaps a touch of outside class.
Very well positioned
Carlton: holds 7, 27, 45
With Zac Williams coming in, they've replaced Kade Simpson nicely. Desperately need to help Cripps and should target a midfielder with pick 7. Needs to have faith in its recent draftees and get games into them.
Well positioned
Collingwood: holds 12, 34, 37, 68
Not many list issues but need a goal kicker or two. Can see them trying to package up 34 and 37 into something better.
Well positioned
Essendon: holds 6, 41, 61, 69, 70
In a world of hurt yet again... and only one decent pick to try and fix it. Simply must offload Daniher and Fantasia, and extract maximum value. Saad would also net them either a decent player or pick. Should target the best available tall forward then midfield pace. Could also do with a couple of two-way runners. No quick rebound for this mob, happily.
Poorly positioned
Fremantle: holds 11, 28
Looks to have been an outstanding draft for the Dockers last year but they still hold a nice hand this year. Can see them going for pace with their first pick and a ruck with their second. Building well.
Very well positioned
Geelong: holds 10, 15, 16, 33
Not the ideal draft to hold picks in this range and be rocking a list that needs to be regenerated sooner rather than later. Club needs good talls right now (ruck, KPD, KPF). Recruiters will earn their money here. Do they bundle picks to trade up or find a way to improve their trade hand next year? A real conundrum for the Cats. Do they come knocking for CCJ?
Well positioned but needs to pull the right rein
Gold Coast: holds 5, 24, 35, 72
Another good hand to top up last year's mega haul. List taking shape nicely.
Very well positioned
GWS: holds 40, 46, 66
Yuck. Paid a heavy price for Ash and Green last year. Will get good compensation for Williams. Needs run out of half back and players with heart. Could be in for years of mediocrity.
Very poorly positioned
Hawthorn: holds 4, 21, 39, 42, 59, 67
Simply has to trust its junior football recruiters for a change. By all accounts picking late will be like hitting a dartboard while blindfolded so must make its first couple of picks count and perhaps bundle up some mid-range picks for a ready-made player or better draft position. List lacks pace, a key forward and a key defender.
Well positioned
Melbourne: holds 23, 47, 62, 63
A lousy hand for a club that keeps coming up short. Great draft last year (Pickett, Rivers, Jackson). Needs more pace and elite ball use. Probably won't find either with this range of picks.
Very poorly positioned
North Melbourne: holds 2, 9, 25, 57, 65
Having delisted so many players already and with an expectation more will be traded, the Kangas need a good draft. Have the chance to smash this draft out of the park. List has holes everywhere. Must target a key forward to support exciting prospects Zurhaar, Thomas and Taylor.
Very well positioned
Port Adelaide: holds 26, 29, 43, 50, 55
A dangerous hand to be honest. Access to Lachlan Jones a bonus, and they desperately need better tall defenders, but matching an expected bid for Jones will be costly.
Poorly positioned
Richmond: holds 17, 31, 53, 71
No obvious needs although aren't we glad Balta came on quickly this year. Talk is Rioli will come to us, along with defender Baxter. Will get more deeply involved if Graham and CCJ move on but it wouldn't surprise if the club tries to work in player swaps rather than draft picks.
Very well positioned
St Kilda: holds 14, 58, 73
Traded well last year while maintaining a good hand in this draft. Has some ageing players (Ryder, Hanneberry, Carlisle, Savage, Geary, etc) but a nicely rounded list.
Well positioned
Sydney: holds 3, 22, 54, 56
Quietly building a great list. Outrageous access to local talent. Should win the draft in a canter.
Very well positioned
WCE: holds 32, 51, 52
Sold the farm for Kelly last year, which looks better now due to the difficult draft ahead. List in good shape.
Well positioned
Western Bulldogs: holds 13, 36, 49
Luckily will land Ugle-Hagan but will pay a big price, and as good as he apparently is, key forward isn't a glaring list weakness. The club needs to add pace and hardness to its list ASAP. Wouldn't be surprised if they shop an unexpected name or two to trade back into an improved draft position.
Poorly positioned
Cheers JJT. I'm no expert on the kids or draft strategies but I watch clubs' lists pretty closely.Thanks 8888888 for the interestingcommentary.
My overall summary would be that it's not a great year to be going to the draft to start a deep regeneration of a list.
But I think North and the Crows, with their nice hauls of top-end picks, Sydney, with its access to academy talent, and the clubs who already have a solid list and a good age profile, will be the ones that thrive in the short term.
I wonder how many clubs will get gun shy this year and try to trade into next year's draft?
Could result in a lot of player movement, especially with the expected reduction in list sizes.
I went searching for current information on him this morning, @toothless, and there's not an awful lot to be found.
The couple of references I found rated him a late pick.
Reckon things are looking good for retaining our first couple of picks before having to do any matching.
Lst time I heard he was injured & would have missed most of 2020 anyway
