2021 Draft Thread | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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2021 Draft Thread

bullus_hit

Whatchu talkin about Jack?
Apr 3, 2006
15,227
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Plenty of healthy debate going on here but here's my two cents, I'll try to be as succinct as possible.

* This is a midfielders draft so it would pay to play to those strengths. We didn't pick Sam Taylor but that doesn't mean we get a similar type with a pick in the top 10. That isn't maximising our draft hand.

* With four premium picks you can model an entire engine room, a ten year plan so to speak. A blend of taller mids, crafty mids & inside bulls would be preferable. The guys I'm talking about include Johnson, Hobbs, Goater, Sonsie, Butler, Taylor & Ward.

* I would go with the taller mids first & then pick off some medium sized mids further down the draft, it's one reason I'm inclined to take Johnson over Hobbs. I think Hobbs makes an early impact and then gets passed by Johnson at the 3 year mark.

* People are waxing lyrical about Gibcus but there's a bloke called Goater who has better a better vertical leap, an elite sprint time and a proven track record is multiple positions. I am struggling to see how Gibcus is worth pick 7 but Goater isn't worth pick 15 (according to some posters).

* If we are intent on bringing in a tall then by all means grab van Rooyen but if pick 15 is the price then accept that he may only wind up being a KPD. Why? Because the key forwards littering the competition are generally taller, have a better leap & possess a few more tricks.

Play the percentages and we get four core players who will be impacting games as early as next year. Go down the route of Gibcus/van Rooyen and we are looking at 3-4 years of development time with no guarantees they will premiership quality players when the dust settles.

I would much rather nail down the engine room whilst we have this rare opportunity, the composition of which can be moulded to suit our vision of the future. My take on the next few years is bringing in guys who can match it with the Bont/Macrae/Oliver/Petracca types. Some might say there's no hope you will find the next A class mid in this batch, maybe that's true, but if you select players with solid floors then the collateral damage of failure won't be catastrophic.
 
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Feb 25, 2007
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thanks for posting Astute.

its a really compelling set of numbers for 2 reasons.

1. his disposal average goes from 24 in colts to 20 in reserves with the same sample size (n=4). Disposal numbers are simplistic, but this suggests hes a kid that gets better the higher the level. there's usually a sharper decline in effectiveness when a kid steps up against men. his league average (n=3) is 7 disposals (very normal to go from 25 to 7-8 on the step up). I wonder if that was a run of 3 games, or 3 spaced (makes a big diff in interpretation in light of above). or did he get 3 in his first game, 7 in his 2nd and 10 in his 3rd? tackle numbers in league very good (4 a week).

2. his first game against men, he got 7 disposals (very typical in my experience), but then he gets 25 next week and stays at that output. This suggests he's very quick to adapt his game and respond to coaching.

On the basis of the highlights, Bullys bullishness, and my simplistic data interpretation,

I'll be stoked if we nab him.

purely on the numbers and transitions between levels, he's significantly ahead of Erasmus

Cheers mate!

You make a good observation. when playing league (couple games back to back) Johnson does drop off in numbers, understandably so playing against men, but playing for Colts/Reserves his numbers are good, average in the 20's.

Matthew Johnson

Round 7, 2021LeagueSwan Districts2130500201
Round 6, 2021LeagueClaremont4263100001


ROUNDGRADEOPPOSITIONKHDMTHOFFFAGB
Finals Week 2, 2021ReservesSwan Districts1611274301102
Finals Week 1, 2021ReservesWest Perth158239501110
Round 19, 2021ReservesEast Fremantle1872510101000
Round 18, 2021ReservesClaremont5272201000
Round 14, 2021ColtsPerth206269903210
Round 12, 2021ColtsSwan Districts97164402200
Round 9, 2021ColtsPerth1119301600001
Round 8, 2021ColtsPeel Thunder147210904100
 
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bullus_hit

Whatchu talkin about Jack?
Apr 3, 2006
15,227
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I’m a fan of M.Johnson. Wouldn’t be unhappy if we selected him. Been watching him for quite a while this year. (IMO he was better than Erasmus in last years Colts GF).

Just one thing though. Highlight reels are nice but you’ve really gotta watch full games, and a number of them, to get the total perspective. To that end people should get access to the West’s Colts video’s. Lots of games to watch - including a number of M. Johnson’s. From those you’ll see that SCOOP has a relevant point where his athleticism is concerned. He doesn’t really have much of a burst and he can get caught with the ball a bit. And he’s not a Pendlebury “glider” either as some people are exaggerating a bit with.

Anyway big upside. Great skills and vision. Good tackler. Good player ! Like him a lot. Note: he is already getting bigger. His shoulders are now huge from some recent material I’ve watched.
Johnson's form in the SA vs WA match was good, I'd take this as a leading barometer and not Colts, although he has looked a cut above at that level.

This is why I prefer Hobbs but whether he gets to our pick remains to be seen.
We need first use of the ball and players like Petracca and Oliver give the dees that, Hobbs you know he will but on Johnson, haven't seen enough of him, but Redford and bullus_hit surely can provide more on this, including his contested numbers and clearance work.
Johnson's contested game is still a work in progress but he has the frame & the composure in tight which is a solid basis to work with. Provided his tank is ok, I'd say anything around a 14 beep would be passable for his playing type.
 
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bullus_hit

Whatchu talkin about Jack?
Apr 3, 2006
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All key position players are notoriously difficult to predict because they take longer to develop so agree entirely.
But once you have a good one, you simply build support players around them.
Key defenders have the advantage of just having to spoil to be effective whereas a key toward has to mark it first, then go back and actually kick it. Hence why they’re harder to find.
But these days a key position defender who can intercept mark and play off their man are vital, no matter where you draft them from. The earlier they’re rated, the better the chances they are elite.
I don't disagree with the importance of these playing types but if you spend an early pick & he winds up being a Griffiths, then you have butchered the draft, particularly when a bloke like Fyfe goes the pick after.

As for finding a KPD with a latish pick, I reckon I'd rather take a punt on Leek Aleer and stitch up my midfield, even if that means passing on Bazzo presuming Taylor or Butler are there at 26.
 
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King Kong

Tiger Legend
Aug 26, 2016
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I am a fan of Ben "the tiger" Hobbs and hopes he somehow makes it to our pick 7 but for those who haven't seen Bullys boy Matthew Johnson here are some stats and his highlights vid.

He has good foot skills, nice side step and doesn't mind tackling.

No offence to Bully but he was a ways behind me in claiming him
 
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Dont Argue

Tiger Legend
Jun 26, 2018
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I don't disagree with the importance of these playing types but if you spend an early pick & he winds up being a Griffiths, then you have butchered the draft, particularly when a bloke like Fyfe goes the pick after.

As for finding a KPD with a latish pick, I reckon I'd rather take a punt on Leek Aleer and stitch up my midfield, even if that means passing on Bazzo presuming Taylor or Butler are there at 26.
Let’s just hope Johnston isn’t the next Conca and Goater ( who I really rate ) is not the next Fiora.
Wrong choices go both ways.

Think we both agree that club will probably go best available but I’d like a mixture of talls and mids myself.
 
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eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
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Plenty of healthy debate going on here but here's my two cents, I'll try to be as succinct as possible.

* This is a midfielders draft so it would pay to play to those strengths. We didn't pick Sam Taylor but that doesn't mean we get a similar type with a pick in the top 10. That isn't maximising our draft hand.

* With four premium picks you can model an entire engine room, a ten year plan so to speak. A blend of taller mids, crafty mids & inside bulls would be preferable. The guys I'm talking about include Johnson, Hobbs, Goater, Sonsie, Butler, Taylor & Ward.

* I would go with the taller mids first & then pick off some medium sized mids further down the draft, it's one reason I'm inclined to take Johnson over Hobbs. I think Hobbs makes an early impact and then gets passed by Johnson at the 3 year mark.

* People are waxing lyrical about Gibcus but there's a bloke called Goater who has better a better vertical leap, an elite sprint time and a proven track record is multiple positions. I am struggling to see how Gibcus is worth pick 7 but Goater isn't worth pick 15 (according to some posters).

* If we are intent on bringing in a tall then by all means grab van Rooyen but if pick 15 is the price then accept that he may only wind up being a KPD. Why? Because the key forwards littering the competition are generally taller, have a better leap & possess a few more tricks.

Play the percentages and we get four core players who will be impacting games as early as next year. Go down the route of Gibcus/van Rooyen and we are looking at 3-4 years of development time with no guarantees they will premiership quality players when the dust settles.

I would much rather nail down the engine room whilst we have this rare opportunity, the composition of which can be moulded to suit our vision of the future. My take on the next few years is bringing in guys who can match it with the Bont/Macrae/Oliver/Petracca types. Some might say there's no hope you will find the next A class mid in this batch, maybe that's true, but if you select players with solid floors then the collateral damage of failure won't be catastrophic.

im pretty much all in with you Bully.

my draft (as in subject to change wish) list

Johnson
Sonsie
JVR
Goater (all in the 7-25 range?)

Arthur Jones (3rd round)

seems to provides grunt, dazzle, toughs, tricks, contest, goals.

I dont reckon its outrageously unrealistic to fulfil 80% of that list

Fun fact: Van Rooyen has huge mitts like stewy Lowe

question for @tigerman or other WAliens: Is the ground that features often on WA highlights that seems to have new residential development around the perimeter, the old Subiaco?
 
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eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
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Let’s just hope Johnston isn’t the next Conca and Goater ( who I really rate ) is not the next Fiora.
Wrong choices go both ways.

Think we both agree that club will probably go best available but I’d like a mixture of talls and mids myself.

the risk of that does elevate with these types.

though the only thing Reece Conca ever really did wrong IMO was go in the first round.

you take him in the 3rd round every time. 150 games.
 
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eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
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Cheers mate!

You make a good observation. when playing league (couple games back to back) Johnson does drop off in numbers, understandably so playing against men, but playing for Colts/Reserves his numbers are good, average in the 20's.

Matthew Johnson

Round 7, 2021LeagueSwan Districts2130500201
Round 6, 2021LeagueClaremont4263100001


ROUNDGRADEOPPOSITIONKHDMTHOFFFAGB
Finals Week 2, 2021ReservesSwan Districts1611274301102
Finals Week 1, 2021ReservesWest Perth158239501110

His WAFL reserves finals numbers is outstanding output from an 18yo
 
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daniel30

Tiger Superstar
Jun 14, 2010
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I agree with you bullus hit set up the engine room with those picks , but is there talls we can target later in the draft or project players need to get some talls in.
 
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eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
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I agree with you bullus hit set up the engine room with those picks , but is there talls we can target later in the draft or project players need to get some talks in.

yep mids inside 30 (im calling JVR a KPswinger so exception to rule), then a project KPD at 38, a mercurial indigenous slider at 40, and rookie a ruckman

then trade up into the top 5 in 2022 and grab the best CHF in the land if we cant trade for one in the 22-25yo bracket on an upward trajectory.
 

jokershoppe

Tiger Champion
Feb 17, 2008
3,510
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After seeing a possible top 20 from 2022 draft,there is a shhiittload of talls.
So don't need to take a tall that's a dud in 2021.
 

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mrposhman

Tiger Legend
Oct 6, 2013
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yep mids inside 30 (im calling JVR a KPswinger so exception to rule), then a project KPD at 38, a mercurial indigenous slider at 40, and rookie a ruckman

then trade up into the top 5 in 2022 and grab the best CHF in the land if we cant trade for one in the 22-25yo bracket on an upward trajectory.

With where our current list is at. I don't see us using 38 and 40 and if we do not sure why we would do it.

In order to do that, we would need to free spots up on our list and would mean delisting players like Cumberland and Biggie to then bring in someone around the same area in the draft but 2 years younger.

I reckon we take 3 or 4 picks to the ND, whilst strengthening our hand in the 2022 draft.

Drafting say 4 inside 30 this season and then 4 inside 30 next year would be a great way to really hit that rebuild on the go button.
 
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tigerman

It's Tiger Time
Mar 17, 2003
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question for @tigerman or other WAliens: Is the ground that features often on WA highlights that seems to have new residential development around the perimeter, the old Subiaco?
Claremont eZyt. The Mighty Tigers.

 
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Aegean Tiger

Tiger Superstar
Aug 27, 2008
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Plenty of healthy debate going on here but here's my two cents, I'll try to be as succinct as possible.

* This is a midfielders draft so it would pay to play to those strengths. We didn't pick Sam Taylor but that doesn't mean we get a similar type with a pick in the top 10. That isn't maximising our draft hand.

* With four premium picks you can model an entire engine room, a ten year plan so to speak. A blend of taller mids, crafty mids & inside bulls would be preferable. The guys I'm talking about include Johnson, Hobbs, Goater, Sonsie, Butler, Taylor & Ward.
Brilliant summary with particular emphasis on the points above.

Reckon the RFC is in a wonderful position.
 
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bullus_hit

Whatchu talkin about Jack?
Apr 3, 2006
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Let’s just hope Johnston isn’t the next Conca and Goater ( who I really rate ) is not the next Fiora.
Wrong choices go both ways.

Think we both agree that club will probably go best available but I’d like a mixture of talls and mids myself.
And that is why you grab players with multi position talent. Johnson looks like a best 22 player, whether you push him back into defence or get him rolling in the midfield. With his height & skill set I see AFL quality, even if he doesn't hit the heights of Pendles or Macrae, I think he's flexible enough to play in other positions.

Goater is more comfortable as a rebounder, he's not as rushed or panicky down back, so any question marks with his kicking need to be put in context, he's just learning about the midfield game. He's a similar project to Balta in that he has outstanding athletic traits that need refinement. Balta also looked rushed in his early days, this is an area that is seemingly workable within our current developmental framework.
 
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eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
21,434
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Claremont eZyt. The Mighty Tigers.


jeez I could retire to a boundary side apartment, growing old watching the tigers every move!!!

I didn't think living at a footy oval was possible until now.