Can you draw any correlation between KPF's who perform against men (im thinking Jack Reiwoldt kicking the winning goal in a senior prelim for Clarence at 17)
and AFL success?
this model would rule Amiss out, for instance? for Logan McDonald, for other instance, goals were like shelling peas in the WAFL league in 2019. yet to bear fruit.
Can we narrow the field with senior mens goals as a KPF?
im with you in largely discounting colts form.
This is a great question & one which is complex on many fronts, Jack I simply loved in his draft year, there was certainly criticism that he was too focused on taking a speccy but I loved that element of his game because the leading patterns are something that can be taught. I was slightly concerned about his athleticism but give me a footballer over an athlete any day, especially one who can kick straight. Conversion is the most critical issue, then I would look closely at contested marking ability, I would also ensure that the player has enough power to gain separation. Playing against the bigger bodies also critical.
Now there's more to it, I call it the Josh Schache phenomenon , that is to completely disregard goals scored at the state carnival given the zoning rules are designed to give leading types a lift. Schache from memory scored all his goals on the lead, not too much in the way of species. Chalk & cheese compared to Jack & what some observers saw as a red flag, I saw as an asset. I think it was Weaver who ripped into Jack about his tendency to launch into the packs instead of leading, overly harsh assessment of a kid with precocious talent.
I'm not even sure there's an ironclad way to guarantee a top pick will star as a forward, I think you have to assume you will get one wrong eventually so it usually pays to grab a guy who can play in multiple positions, at least the floor is solid and you still manage to get a core player.
