2021 Draft Thread | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
  • If you are having trouble logging in to the forum please contact [email protected] // When reseting your password or awaiting confirmation please check that your email is correct and also your junk/spam emails.
  • IMPORTANT! Our inbox is full of email errors from members who have not updated their emails, please follow the instructions on how to update here
  • IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.

2021 Draft Thread

bengal tiges

Tiger Rookie
Apr 29, 2015
219
363
If we do reach in the first then we are making some time honoured mistakes, namely reaching for talls without giving ample consideration to the depth & capability of this year's batch (not to mention next year has a bit of depth in that area).

Best of both worlds! Grab van Rooyen with our second and we have a guy ready to plug a hole at both ends of the ground. We also manage to secure a tall mid & there are only two worth targeting from my experience, although Ned Long is around the mark.
Lololol You still have this obsession with tall mids .
I reckon if Gibcus was available at our pick we would take him straight away ,if the Tiger's rate Amiss in the top 10 he might go at our pick.

We have replaced Astbury ,we have Miller as back up ,but the forward line has no one ,CCJ they didn't want to lose .
I think we will get Rachelle unless theirs a slider ,but l rate rachelle higher than Ward ,l think he's a more damaging player.

I think the draft is starting to take shape,l think Johnson will go to the Dockers,the only one that l can see changing a few things is if Andrew goes before our pick.
 

bullus_hit

Whatchu talkin about Jack?
Apr 3, 2006
13,446
2,394
Just to illustrate the hit or miss nature of talls in the top 10 -

2005 - Kennedy (A grade)
Dowler (F)
Clark (C)
Ryder (A)

2006 - Gumbleton (F)
Thorp (F)
Ben Reid (B)

2007 - Grant (D)
Henderson (B)

2008 - Watts (C)
Hurley (A)
Vickery (D)
Davis (B)

2009 - Butcher (F)

2010 - Day (B)
Gorringe (F)

2011 - Patton (D)
Tomlinson (B)

2012 - Daniher (B)

2013 - Boyd (C)

2014 - McCartin (F)
Marchbank (D)
Wright (C)
Moore (A)

2015 - Weitering (A)
Schache (C)
Weiderman (C)
McKay (B)

2017 - Naughton (A)

2018 - Lukosius (A)
Max King (B)
Ben King (B)
Blakey (D)

So that's 33 talls (forward or swingmen) in 13 years, 7 A graders (roughly 20% strike rate) four of which came in the top 5. So your chance of securing an A grader from picks 6-10 is less than 10%.

Think I would much rather try and find the next Pendles, Bont or Macrae.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
  • Wow
Reactions: 9 users

bullus_hit

Whatchu talkin about Jack?
Apr 3, 2006
13,446
2,394
Lololol You still have this obsession with tall mids .
I reckon if Gibcus was available at our pick we would take him straight away ,if the Tiger's rate Amiss in the top 10 he might go at our pick.

We have replaced Astbury ,we have Miller as back up ,but the forward line has no one ,CCJ they didn't want to lose .
I think we will get Rachelle unless theirs a slider ,but l rate rachelle higher than Ward ,l think he's a more damaging player.

I think the draft is starting to take shape,l think Johnson will go to the Dockers,the only one that l can see changing a few things is if Andrew goes before our pick.
Laugh all you want but I like to play the odds and I don't think grabbing two talls in this draft is wise. Much better to grab 1 swingman and hit the midfield.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 10 users

bullus_hit

Whatchu talkin about Jack?
Apr 3, 2006
13,446
2,394
And I don't have any 'obsession' with tall midfielders, simply acknowledging their importance in forming a top tier. 187cm is the magic number when identifying top end midfield talent.

Bont, Fyfe, Pendles, Oliver, Cripps, Petracca, Martin, Mundy, Wines, Yeo, Macrae

You need a high pick for these types, preferably a top 5 pick although you can get lucky with a later pick.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 4 users

King Kong

Tiger Champion
Aug 26, 2016
3,887
2,698
I’m the same as you and Bob Joking Faces.

Callaghan is a real neat and tidy mover. His build and the way he moves reminds me a bit of Nathan Buckley. But you are right. He doesn’t have much of an inside or physical game. He’s a great athlete, covers the ground well, fair enough kick. But he needs to win a bit more of his own ball.

He had a poor U/16 Championships, got told to work on some things, improved, and had a good practice match start for Sandy this year when he started to rise on people’s radar again. But like Erasmus, it’s really only been this year, and in limited game time and exposure that he’s risen.

I think clubs really like the athletic and classy look he has about him and that he has big upside if he can win a bit more of his own ball.

Good player but I think he’s a tad over priced at pick 4. See him more as about 10-12 to be honest.
The reason clubs are so high on him is he is tracking similar to Bont - late developer that has had a big final year - same height and marking ability- same skills and movement - same running ability. Bont was similar (flanker that moved into midfield) in his final year.

Some can get carried away in these circumstances but with Callaghan the opinion is pretty much unanimous which rules out the risk that any one individual recruiter gets luv nuts for a particular player.
 

eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
17,848
16,594
Laugh all you want but I like to play the odds and I don't think grabbing two talls in this draft is wise. Much better to grab 1 swingman and hit the midfield.

Can you draw any correlation between KPF's who perform against men (im thinking Jack Reiwoldt kicking the winning goal in a senior prelim for Clarence at 17)

and AFL success?

this model would rule Amiss out, for instance? for Logan McDonald, for other instance, goals were like shelling peas in the WAFL league in 2019. yet to bear fruit.

Can we narrow the field with senior mens goals as a KPF?

im with you in largely discounting colts form.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user

jokershoppe

Tiger Champion
Feb 17, 2008
2,628
1,025
Its never as simple as that

At Pick 9, it will be a marginal call between the mids available and the talls

JVR will be gone by 17

Tall will be taken, could be wrong, but I doubt it
If jvr was in 2022 draft he would range 25-35 by sheer number of Kps,this will come into clubs thinking.
 

bengal tiges

Tiger Rookie
Apr 29, 2015
219
363
Laugh all you want but I like to play the odds and I don't think grabbing two talls in this draft is wise. Much better to grab 1 swingman and hit the midfield.
Just to illustrate the hit or miss nature of talls in the top 10 -

2005 - Kennedy (A grade)
Dowler (F)
Clark (C)
Ryder (A)

2006 - Gumbleton (F)
Thorp (F)
Ben Reid (B)

2007 - Grant (D)
Henderson (B)

2008 - Watts (C)
Hurley (A)
Vickery (D)
Davis (B)

2009 - Butcher (F)

2010 - Day (B)
Gorringe (F)

2011 - Patton (D)
Tomlinson (B)

2012 - Daniher (B)

2013 - Boyd (C)

2014 - McCartin (F)
Marchbank (D)
Wright (C)
Moore (A)

2015 - Weitering (A)
Weiderman (C)
McKay (B)

2017 - Naughton (A)

2018 - Lukosius (A)
Max King (B)
Ben King (B)
Blakey (D)

So that's 33 talls (forward or swingmen) in 13 years, 7 A graders (roughly 20% strike rate) four of which came in the top 5. So your chance of securing an A grader from picks 6-10 is less than 10%.

Think I would much rather try and find the next Pendles, Bont or Macrae.
Well going on your years ,the last 3 there has been a A grade,,to be honest the only one l rate top 10 is Gibcus .
I think you will find clubs will go for more KP's in the draft earlier than what they use to,there are 18 club's now,and each one want's a decent spine.

Yes l know what your thinking before you type:LOL: You can pick up kp's later in the draft ,yeah every now and then you can pick up a decent one,but the majority of the quality one's will be first round.

Btw Tom Boyd was more a ruck than kp,,and you marked him low ,he can't help having mental issues,,but he did star in the Bulldogs premiership,and Vickery was recruited more as a ruck.
 

eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
17,848
16,594
Cripps is overrated imo,,if he stars in a final l will change my mind.

he hasn't failed in a final, has he?

he had an ordinary 2021, but hes a pretty good player.

but yeah Cripps is behind Trac/Bont/Fyfe,

who are behind Dustman
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user

bengal tiges

Tiger Rookie
Apr 29, 2015
219
363
he hasn't failed in a final, has he?

he had an ordinary 2021, but hes a pretty good player.

but yeah Cripps is behind Trac/Bont/Fyfe,

who are behind Dustman
I don't think he's played in one,,a guy l know who supports Carlton reckons they play better with out him,he slows there team down
 
  • Wow
Reactions: 1 user

wigglyworm

Tiger Matchwinner
Jan 22, 2008
572
326
Just to illustrate the hit or miss nature of talls in the top 10 -

2005 - Kennedy (A grade)
Dowler (F)
Clark (C)
Ryder (A)

2006 - Gumbleton (F)
Thorp (F)
Ben Reid (B)

2007 - Grant (D)
Henderson (B)

2008 - Watts (C)
Hurley (A)
Vickery (D)
Davis (B)

2009 - Butcher (F)

2010 - Day (B)
Gorringe (F)

2011 - Patton (D)
Tomlinson (B)

2012 - Daniher (B)

2013 - Boyd (C)

2014 - McCartin (F)
Marchbank (D)
Wright (C)
Moore (A)

2015 - Weitering (A)
Weiderman (C)
McKay (B)

2017 - Naughton (A)

2018 - Lukosius (A)
Max King (B)
Ben King (B)
Blakey (D)

So that's 33 talls (forward or swingmen) in 13 years, 7 A graders (roughly 20% strike rate) four of which came in the top 5. So your chance of securing an A grader from picks 6-10 is less than 10%.

Think I would much rather try and find the next Pendles, Bont or Macrae.
Thats a great summary. Interesting to see what the strike rate 10-30 would be
 

bullus_hit

Whatchu talkin about Jack?
Apr 3, 2006
13,446
2,394
Well going on your years ,the last 3 there has been a A grade,,to be honest the only one l rate top 10 is Gibcus .
I think you will find clubs will go for more KP's in the draft earlier than what they use to,there are 18 club's now,and each one want's a decent spine.

Yes l know what your thinking before you type:LOL: You can pick up kp's later in the draft ,yeah every now and then you can pick up a decent one,but the majority of the quality one's will be first round.

Btw Tom Boyd was more a ruck than kp,,and you marked him low ,he can't help having mental issues,,but he did star in the Bulldogs premiership,and Vickery was recruited more as a ruck.
You're a mind reader! Yes, that's how I approach list building, I like statistical reinforcement to go with the raw ability.

I picked Mitch Clark in 2005 (better than JON at least)
I picked Jack in 2006 (and nearly smashed my car window like Frank when we traded pick 8)
I picked Rance in 2007
I picked Vickery in 2008 (although happy to have fixed that with the Bolton acquisition)
I picked Sam Reid in 2009 (although I missed Astbury)
I picked Darling in 2010 (at pick 6 which was fair value considering his underage year)
I picked Membrey in 2012
I picked Ladhams in 2015 (rookie)
I picked Chol in 2016 (rookie)
I picked Balta in 2017
I picked Sam Taylor in 2017
I picked Bailey Williams in 2018

Griffiths not my finest moment, but he taught me to tread with caution in the top 20, I've since become a lot more discerning with tall project types. Guys like McKernan & McKenzie also came into the picture but probably not great selections. Not huge collateral damage however. But it aint easy to find a tall forward but that's all the more reason to trade one in like Lynch or go for broke in the top 5.

I pegged Lukosius first in 2018, just felt it was better to nail down a tall, not too concerned that Williams & Walsh are slaying it, happy to have a swingman who kicks it like a midfielder. The opportunity cost of not having a gun onballer more pronounced now than it will be in 5 years.

So my record with talls is reasonably good and I haven't wasted too many picks trying to get one. I was also with Phantom in getting one tall in the 2004 draft, didn't really care whether it was Roughie or Buddy, but we absolutely needed to grab a good one when the opportunity presented itself. Don't think that applies to this year so I'm dipping into the midfield stocks.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 10 users

wigglyworm

Tiger Matchwinner
Jan 22, 2008
572
326
Depending on who slides… don’t be surprised if we get offered future 1st rounder at picks 26,27,28
A future first for one of those. Doubt it very much. I would hazard a guess and say a future second. I reckon there is a good chance our phones are running hot at those picks
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user

caesar

Tiger Legend
Feb 9, 2015
5,572
8,420
Did anyone watch the Herald Sun, (subscriber only), top 30 mock draft and who did they have us picking?

As usual HS knows Richmond sells, they only went up to Richmond's last pick ;) :)

Mock Draft replay: How the top 30 could play out​