2021 Draft Thread

[Leysy Days]

Big Mac is already 80 Kegs. He will impact far earlier than 4 years. Leysy is sure of that. Quality talls like him nearly always do, even if slight.

If we slides to us it could be years til we get a look at his talent for his role again. Unfortunately it looks like he will be long gone. Sigh..

 

[Redford]

Seeing as every man and his dog agrees that this is a very even draft, thought I’d throw out there my possible late gems ie possible late second- third round to rookie selections that a club might get considerable value from.

Feel free to blast away.

Cooper Hamilton;
Marcus Herbert;
VFL player code name HANYDFT
Corey Preston;
Kai Lohmann
Oscar Morrison;
Blayne O’Loughlin;
Bryce Watson;
Shay Linke;
Judson Clarke;
Jai Serong;
Jamieson Ballantyne;
Karl Worner;
Brady Hough

 

[bullus_hit]

That clip gets me more excited over Hobbs as an inside mid. It's one game, wouldn't be making sweeping statements off of this.

I think I'd rather grab Johnson & then grab Dittmar or Browne if we want an inside mid. I don't think Hobbs is a threat outside 50, I haven't seen it yet and I think his forward capability has been overvalued based on a small sample size.

Hobbs fits a desperate need.
We dont have a pick in the early teens, for sure he'll be gone by our 15.
Its at 7 or never really.

There are inside players available, Dittmar doesn't have the overall production but his ball winning ability is comparable. I think the gap between Hobbs & the field of inside mids will close once in an AFL system.

Some of that is fair enough eg left foot, outside game but I don’t think range is an issue. In that game in the third quarter he kicks from 45m and the ball goes sailing through the middle way over the fence indicating a strong carry of about 50-55m.

His range is ok.

Sonsie can kick goals from outside 50, I've seen the evidence, I'm not so sure about Hobbs & I'm not confident he can ping them from outside of the arc or at full pace. Goater impressed me more in that match and that's as a midfielder, the one area people are nervous about.

 

[Redford]

I think I'd rather grab Johnson & then grab Dittmar or Browne if we want an inside mid. I don't think Hobbs is a threat outside 50, I haven't seen it yet and I think his forward capability has been overvalued based on a small sample size.


There are inside players available, Dittmar doesn't have the overall production but his ball winning ability is comparable. I think the gap between Hobbs & the field of inside mids will close once in an AFL system.

Sonsie can kick goals from outside 50, I've seen the evidence, I'm not so sure about Hobbs & I'm not confident he can ping them from outside of the arc or at full pace. Goater impressed me more in that match and that's as a midfielder, the one area people are nervous about.

Yeah but you made a generalisation that he doesn’t have range. Now you’re talking about on the run and conflating to Sonsie.

Hobbs general range is fine and not much different to heaps of others. Forget the one or two games available online and highlights reels. I’ve watched almost every game of his this year and from a set shot, at least, he can cover 50.

That’s plenty good enough and will only get better after being in the system.

 

[Scoop]

Bully, there is no way I'd overlook Hobbs on what MIGHT be available down the draft order on a player who MIGHT be as good in an AFL system and hasn't produced what Hobbs has at an under u18 level. I wouldn't be overlooking an inside mid on if he can kick goals from 50.
@bengal tiges l has given phenomenal insight on what Hobbs has done and who he is as a footballer.

 

[eZyT]

I feel like you could add a 20% weighting in favour of Victorian kids,

to overcome the natural SA/WA bias that will occur this year.

e.g. if you rated WA kid at 16 and Vic kid at 19, you take the Vic kid after correction factor applied.

I guess the assumption is that Vic kids missed a chance to perform well, when they may have missed a chance to perform poorly.

Freo may indeed be using a correction factor to put Hobbs in front of Johnson

 

[Redford]

I feel like you could add a 20% weighting in favour of Victorian kids,

to overcome the natural SA/WA bias that will occur this year.

e.g. if you rated WA kid at 16 and Vic kid at 19, you take the Vic kid after correction factor applied.

I guess the assumption is that Vic kids missed a chance to perform well, when they may have missed a chance to perform poorly.

Freo may indeed be using a correction factor to put Hobbs in front of Johnson

Possibly. Then the SA WA clubs could also apply a go home factor to Vic kids that swings it back the other way.

Speaking of which, one or two of the WA kids give me a gut feel of go home factor - especially Erasmus. Dunno why. Just a gut feel with a couple of them.

 

[tigerdell]

I feel like you could add a 20% weighting in favour of Victorian kids,

to overcome the natural SA/WA bias that will occur this year.

e.g. if you rated WA kid at 16 and Vic kid at 19, you take the Vic kid after correction factor applied.

I guess the assumption is that Vic kids missed a chance to perform well, when they may have missed a chance to perform poorly.

Freo may indeed be using a correction factor to put Hobbs in front of Johnson

but also that WA/SA kids performed against a lower level, plus got to continue to showcase their football abilities.
Vic kids had to repeat the same football story - i played against metro and kicked a goal - which gets old when it was in May and Johannes Henry Foort is taking the WA reserves by storm.

 

[bengal tigers]

Bully, there is no way I'd overlook Hobbs on what MIGHT be available down the draft order on a player who MIGHT be as good in an AFL system and hasn't produced what Hobbs has at an under u18 level. I wouldn't be overlooking an inside mid on if he can kick goal from 50.
@bengal tiges l has given phenomenal insight on what Hobbs has done and who he is as a footballer.

He's also a excellent reader of the play ,and that also sets him apart from most mids in this draft.

 

[tigerdell]

...

Sonsie can kick goals from outside 50, I've seen the evidence, I'm not so sure about Hobbs & I'm not confident he can ping them from outside of the arc or at full pace. Goater impressed me more in that match and that's as a midfielder, the one area people are nervous about.

On Goater I noticed that he was lined up on Knevitt for most part and beat him.
It says a bit about both of them really

 

[eZyT]

but also that WA/SA kids performed against a lower level,

good point

One SA V Allies game was essentially

SA U19 V SA u17, which simply can't be taken seriously. The only form you could read out of it is a double bottom age kid for the 'Allies' acquitting themselves well.

Intriguing draft. its plausible that Hobbs would have taken Johnson to the cleaners, head to head, more than once (of course the opposite is true, which makes this the most random intake of players in a long time)

Its a lot like trying to pick the winner of the modern Cox Plate, where the field are from 4 different continents and have never raced each other

 

[Redford]

He's also a excellent reader of the play ,and that also sets him apart from most mids in this draft.

If I had to frame a market for who we might take, it’d run in order of likelihood: Hobbs, then Gibcus, then Johnson, then Ward. Think our selection comes from one of those 4.

Be happy with either of them.

 

[tigerdell]

good point

One SA V Allies game was essentially

SA U19 V SA u17, which simply can't be taken seriously. The only form you could read out of it is a double bottom age kid for the 'Allies' acquitting themselves well.

Intriguing draft. its plausible that Hobbs would have taken Johnson to the cleaners, head to head, more than once (of course the opposite is true, which makes this the most random intake of players in a long time)

I read somewhere that the Vic Country kids didnt have much prep before their hitouts against Vic Metro.
It was evident in the amount of times there were multiple kids all running in the same spots.
At the same time Metro trounced them.

 

[zippadeee]

Possibly. Then the SA WA clubs could also apply a go home factor to Vic kids that swings it back the other way.

Speaking of which, one or two of the WA kids give me a gut feel of go home factor - especially Erasmus. Dunno why. Just a gut feel with a couple of them.

The SA kids seem to get home sick more then the WA kids.
I would like to see the numbers.
Vic kids always want to come home. you can't blame them, the G and the lockdowns its impossible to ignore

 

[bullus_hit]

Yeah but you made a generalisation that he doesn’t have range. Now you’re talking about on the run and conflating to Sonsie.

Hobbs general range is fine and not much different to heaps of others. Forget the one or two games available online and highlights reels. I’ve watched almost every game of his this year and from a set shot, at least, he can cover 50.

That’s plenty good enough and will only get better after being in the system.

I'm not conflating anything, part of the rankings reflect each player's hurt factor by foot & I don't think Hobbs will be a threat outside of the arc, on the run or as a metres gained, high hurt factor player. His efficiency is only average, McDonald has better numbers & has done that in all types of conditions. I don't like using the manchild card, I generally keep those thoughts on the down low, but I'm feeling it in this instance.

In 5 years time when we look at Johnson & Hobbs we will be wondering how they were spoken about in the same breath. Even the forward capability is being overblown, taking a mark unattended in the forward 50 doesn't excite me enough to categorise him as a genuine goal kicking midfielder.

 

[eZyT]

I read somewhere that the Vic Country kids didnt have much prep before their hitouts against Vic Metro.
It was evident in the amount of times there were multiple kids all running in the same spots.
At the same time Metro trounced them.

yep anomalies everywhere 2020/21.

I saw first hand Qld u17 get selected, not see each other for 2 months, train for 2 months, not see each other for a month, then get flogged by Tasmania U17 (who I assume had continuity)

Queensland looked like a random collection of unfit kids, missing their midfield who were either Covid contacts or stuck over borders, and who had never played with each other,

which is precisely what they were.

but the stats sheet doesn't record that.

 

[tigerdell]

good point

One SA V Allies game was essentially

SA U19 V SA u17, which simply can't be taken seriously. The only form you could read out of it is a double bottom age kid for the 'Allies' acquitting themselves well.

Intriguing draft. its plausible that Hobbs would have taken Johnson to the cleaners, head to head, more than once (of course the opposite is true, which makes this the most random intake of players in a long time)

Its a lot like trying to pick the winner of the modern Cox Plate, where the field are from 4 different continents and have never raced each other

selecting the kids this year will be pure alchemy.
prioritise 2021 form which may be against very different levels of competition, a dash of u16 form, EzYt's Vic correction factor, potential athletic traits which might have been measured at home, a chat with them about homesickness and then include a guesstassessement on where he wants to live as 22 yo and what car he will drive.
And then figure if he is any good, compared to someone who is a foot taller/smaller and plays in a totally different position.

 

[Redford]

I'm not conflating anything, part of the rankings reflect each player's hurt factor by foot & I don't think Hobbs will be a threat outside of the arc, on the run or as a metres gained, high hurt factor player. His efficiency is only average, McDonald has better numbers & has done that in all types of conditions. I don't like using the manchild card, I generally keep those thoughts on the down low, but I'm feeling it in this instance.

In 5 years time when we look at Johnson & Hobbs we will be wondering how they were spoken about in the same breath. Even the forward capability is being overblown, taking a mark unattended in the forward 50 doesn't excite me enough to categorise him as a genuine goal kicking midfielder.

We’re not talking about Sonsie. We’re talking about Hobbs. They’re two different players. Completely.

His “range” isn’t an issue and if it was, it’s at the lower end of concern. He kicks it plenty far enough.

 

[bullus_hit]

Bully, there is no way I'd overlook Hobbs on what MIGHT be available down the draft order on a player who MIGHT be as good in an AFL system and hasn't produced what Hobbs has at an under u18 level. I wouldn't be overlooking an inside mid on if he can kick goal from 50.
@bengal tiges l has given phenomenal insight on what Hobbs has done and who he is as a footballer.

I'd say there's some chance Hobbs won't even be the best inside mid when the dust settles in 5 years, for me it's Johnson or Gibcus at 9, Goater or Sonsie at 17. From there let's see what talent slips through the net, but I'd be pretty sure there will be some decent midfield talent lying about.

 

[Smoking Aces]

Every club, every pick: ESPN's full AFL phantom draft

The 2021 AFL Draft is on our doorstep, and ESPN expert Chris Doerre has analysed all the possibilities to expand his phantom draft from the first pick to the very last.

www.espn.com.au

Has us taking Hobbs, Van Rooyen, Bazzo, Taylor & Clarke.