AFL Betting Thread | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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AFL Betting Thread

MD Jazz

Tiger Legend
Feb 3, 2017
5,606
2,573
Essendon - surely they represent value at over $3.00? (did i just say that?)

West Coast form in Qld is poor, they are missing their best KF, on paper they are a fair way from their best side. The bombers have their best side for the year in and could ride the high of Joe being back another week. Stringer will be better for the run.

Really think this is a 50/50 game so those odds appear out of whack.

Or am I way off?
 

eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
13,678
7,376
Essendon - surely they represent value at over $3.00? (did i just say that?)

West Coast form in Qld is poor, they are missing their best KF, on paper they are a fair way from their best side. The bombers have their best side for the year in and could ride the high of Joe being back another week. Stringer will be better for the run.

Really think this is a 50/50 game so those odds appear out of whack.

Or am I way off?


The bookies haven't been getting too much wrong this year Ive noticed.

obviously offering $12 on a Richmond premiership was a notable exception.

I'll work an angle on the cats game will be my next punt. I'll work out a way to make the pre-and post game tiger flag odds work some cover.

we'll be $4.5 for the flag before the game and either $6 or $3 after it.

theres gotta be an angle in there
 

tigerman

It's Tiger Time
Mar 17, 2003
12,965
4,033
Essendon - surely they represent value at over $3.00? (did i just say that?)

West Coast form in Qld is poor, they are missing their best KF, on paper they are a fair way from their best side. The bombers have their best side for the year in and could ride the high of Joe being back another week. Stringer will be better for the run.

Really think this is a 50/50 game so those odds appear out of whack.

Or am I way off?
I agree, I took $3.80 on the Bombers last Saturday in a Multi into the Dees at $2 to beat the Saints phew, and the Hawks at $1.39 to be the Crows.
 

eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
13,678
7,376
Who offered $12??? I got $10.

yeah $10 is the best I got. someone told me they saw $12??

last chance for top ups at $4.5 I reckon.

they will announce a Gabba Gf tomoz, then we'll beat Cats, and be $3
 

eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
13,678
7,376
I got the last of the 7/2 for the flag yesterday.

My portfolio is aggressive this year: tiges premiers @ average of 6-1.

For some reason, there value on the gf quins is dreadful this year. I got 25-1 on the 17 and 19 gfs 3/4 through the season. This year, the plausible ones are all single figures.

Makes me think David Walsh and hit mates are into them or something?
 

eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
13,678
7,376
The bookies have opened us at 2.2 to the cats 1.65.

Extraordinary. I think of it as a 50/50 game.
 

MD Jazz

Tiger Legend
Feb 3, 2017
5,606
2,573
The bookies have opened us at 2.2 to the cats 1.65.

Extraordinary. I think of it as a 50/50 game.
I thought you said the bookies have been getting it right?

I'd suggest the flag odds are therefore a bit out of whack with the Cats at 6.00 (they were last night) and us at 4.50. If we lose Fri its a reasonable chance we end up 5th. If that happens surely we are not still $4.50?

We will know on Thursday I suppose, if Saints can do the right thing we don't have to worry.

If the Aints win you'd almost concede Friday in the hope the Cats can finish top. We end up 4th. Shades of 2017. Just need for them to be booed onto the Gabba (or Metricon) to get the memories flooding back.
 

eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
13,678
7,376
I thought you said the bookies have been getting it right?

I'd suggest the flag odds are therefore a bit out of whack with the Cats at 6.00 (they were last night) and us at 4.50. If we lose Fri its a reasonable chance we end up 5th. If that happens surely we are not still $4.50?

We will know on Thursday I suppose, if Saints can do the right thing we don't have to worry.

If the Aints win you'd almost concede Friday in the hope the Cats can finish top. We end up 4th. Shades of 2017. Just need for them to be booed onto the Gabba (or Metricon) to get the memories flooding back.

bang on with flag odds and this game odds not really adding up.

sportbet have us and cats as equal flag favs now at $4.5, so you think they're have this game at 1.9 each?

especially since its on Metricon.

its a little strange. an anomaly.

and bookie anomolies are opportunities for profit.
 
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sconies

Tiger Rookie
Aug 22, 2019
379
701
welp.
sportbet have us and cats as equal flag favs now at $4.5,

They're also still offering odds for Essendon, Fremantle and Gold Coast to win the flag, but not offering odds on them to make the eight as it's now too far-fetched.
 
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MD Jazz

Tiger Legend
Feb 3, 2017
5,606
2,573
Zach Guthrie dropped which is disappointing.

Saints look a good thing tonight which is a worry.
 
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Stoobes

Tiger Rookie
May 24, 2005
233
100
To Score 4 or More Goals, Hawkins $9.50 Tommy $18.00. Strange.

Feels like massive unders for either to be honest. Both teams with a strong defense and wet weather about.
Hawkins has done it twice this year and Lynch 0 probably a part of the reason.
Also "Hawkins Island" been getting a fair run in the media lately.

Could be the type of game for an Aarts or Rioli top goalscorer at odds.
 

Jake

Tiger Superstar
Apr 2, 2005
1,475
358
Feels like massive unders for either to be honest. Both teams with a strong defense and wet weather about.
Hawkins has done it twice this year and Lynch 0 probably a part of the reason.
Also "Hawkins Island" been getting a fair run in the media lately.

Could be the type of game for an Aarts or Rioli top goalscorer at odds.

Good points Stoobes, had a couple small bets on goalscorer's, hard way to make money in my opinion.
 
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