China | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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China

To not back down and come out of this without our economy shot to pieces requires a complete change in mindset from our governments, media and society.

But it wont happen. Our Governments think only in 3 year cycles and do what's necessary to be elected again. Playing the long game means tough and unpopular decisions in the short to medium term but the Government wont do that because the opposition will be all over them, media too depending on who the media are backing at the time. As a society we won't want to pay 15k for a 42" LCD nor 3k for the latest smartphone.

So while Australia could conceivably put themselves in a position where we don't rely on China anymore, getting there is going to be very difficult.
 
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Watching Extinction on ABC now provides another reason to hold China in disdain. Though they aren't the only ones involved in the illegal Wild life trade they represent a lot of the demand. Did you know elephant tusks have an 80% cure rate for cancer?
 
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So while Australia could conceivably put themselves in a position where we don't rely on China anymore, getting there is going to be very difficult.
The sh!t will hit the fan if and when China doesn't have to rely on Australian iron ore anymore.

Vale in Brazil have just recently announced a reduced iron ore production forecast for 2020. They expect to produce 300-305 million tonnes of iron ore this year, which is down from the 385 million tonnes in 2018. The tailing dam collapse and Covid has hit Vale very hard.
Australian iron ore has just cracked $100 billion in revenue for the 2019/20 financial year, the previous best was $77.5. It's the first Australian commodity to crack $100 billion. It's been a windfall for the Morrison government during the pandemic.

Morrison will have kittens if Brazil can go from 300 million tonnes back to 385 million tonnes. China will take great delight in taking more of Vale's iron ore. With iron ore bringing $136 a tonne the other day. 85 million tonnes x $136 a tonnes would be a significant hit to the budget.

Morrison has snookered himself, he should have just shut and up kept taking China's money for crayfish, wine and barley etc.
 
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One of the main problems with ScoMo's response to the doctored photo was that it was in no way aimed at China. Make no mistake, the response was for domestic consumption, to score political points for ScoMo.

I suspect the doctored photo was also created for Chinese domestic political consumption.

Bullies like attention, they beat up on someone else they want the notoriety. You ignore them.

Australia needs to stop the megaphone diplomacy, which is mainly for domestic consumption anyway. We should be working on reducing our reliance on China for exports, reliance on one country is not sustainable, never has been.

DS
 
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ScoMo went off half-cocked. First western leader, other than Trump, to say something, and now were copping it on the trade table. And you think it's not related?

Ultimately we've put Australia in a position where we need China a lot more than they need us, so we need to think a bit before acting and saying *smile*.
Nothing half cocked about asking for an inquiry into the origins of Covid.
And where did I say that request was not related to Ji's ill tempered response.

Morrison was the first Western leader (including Trump) to speak of the need for an inquiry. And all he did was to ask for an independent inquiry by the W.H.O. to establish where and how the infection started. All very reasonable.

On what basis was it wrong to ask the right question?
Your approach to the issue seems to suggest we should always anticipate tyranny. And avoid doing or saying anything which might provoke tyrannical behaviour.
No way to live.
 
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Your approach to the issue seems to suggest we should always anticipate tyranny. And avoid doing or saying anything which might provoke tyrannical behaviour.
No way to live.

My approach is to ensure that you tackle every problem or challenged so that you have the best chance to achieve your desired objectives. If ScoMo's desired objectives was to drop Australia into China's trade blacklist, then he's succeeded. If it was to work towards an in-depth and transparent investigation into the COVID-19 pandemic then he has failed miserably.

It's really as simple as that.
 
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My approach is to ensure that you tackle every problem or challenged so that you have the best chance to achieve your desired objectives. If ScoMo's desired objectives was to drop Australia into China's trade blacklist, then he's succeeded. If it was to work towards an in-depth and transparent investigation into the COVID-19 pandemic then he has failed miserably.

It's really as simple as that.
So you put to one side the possibility of further pandemics emanating from the manner in which inner city wet markets in China are being regulated. And just ignore the world wide loss of life and economic fallout, which has followed from this pandemic?

I think we both agree that Ji’s response has been irrational. And maybe also that Morrison’s response to some of the CP’s subsequent taunting was not well thought out.

But his pressing for an independent investigation into the causes of Covid was entirely appropriate.and imo, turning our collective backs on that issue now, is not a reasonable option .
 
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What would I do?
In the early days of the pandemic I would have been calling for all countries to work together to work out the best way of co-ordinating efforts against the virus and not calling for some sort of premature WMD type inspection clearly aimed at one country.
I wouldn't have blabbed our reason to reject Huawei from the NBN and 5G reason to the world and then advised other countries to do the same. The decision could have been made along the lines of "Sorry but your tender was unsuccessful"
I wouldn't have trumpeted that we were instituting laws to reduce foreign influence. These laws are required but shouting about them from the parapets is not necessary.
Maybe if Morrison had thought about the potential impact of his actions early on then we wouldn't be where we are now.
Subtlety is required not a megaphone.
The CCP clearly think we picked the fight and it's quite clear that they have reason for this belief.
As for "galvanising the nation" that's part of Morrison's problem. He's thinking about votes not about the actual impact of his actions.
We are now in a tit for tat type argument that we cannot possibly win. Chest beating may make some people feel all good about themselves but it won't help the people who are now going to be long term unemployed.
Althom there are things you post that I disagree with but not this.

A long way back in the COVID thread I posted that instead of calling on an investigation into China's role in COVID-19 we should have been lobbying with other countries for a call made through an international body to investigate how the pandemic started and how the world and it's public health systems reacted to it. This would have allowed China to be part of that and for it not to be seen as the target ( however justified). In the end that was sort of what happened anyway with the WHO investigation but it was too late because we had said too much publicly.
 
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Althom there are things you post that I disagree with but not this.

A long way back in the COVID thread I posted that instead of calling on an investigation into China's role in COVID-19 we should have been lobbying with other countries for a call made through an international body to investigate how the pandemic started and how the world and it's public health systems reacted to it. This would have allowed China to be part of that and for it not to be seen as the target ( however justified). In the end that was sort of what happened anyway with the WHO investigation but it was too late because we had said too much publicly.
This

A multilateral approach is what Morrison should've been quietly (diplomatically) pushing for. He has left Australia as a dear in the crosshairs with his typical populist style of doing things.
 
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So you put to one side the possibility of further pandemics emanating from the manner in which inner city wet markets in China are being regulated. And just ignore the world wide loss of life and economic fallout, which has followed from this pandemic?

I think we both agree that Ji’s response has been irrational. And maybe also that Morrison’s response to some of the CP’s subsequent taunting was not well thought out.

But his pressing for an independent investigation into the causes of Covid was entirely appropriate.and imo, turning our collective backs on that issue now, is not a reasonable option .

You seem to struggle with the difference between what you want to achieve and how you go about doing it. ScoMo's how has been amateurish and causing our exporters a lot of sleepless nights.
 
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So you put to one side the possibility of further pandemics emanating from the manner in which inner city wet markets in China are being regulated. And just ignore the world wide loss of life and economic fallout, which has followed from this pandemic?

I think we both agree that Ji’s response has been irrational. And maybe also that Morrison’s response to some of the CP’s subsequent taunting was not well thought out.

But his pressing for an independent investigation into the causes of Covid was entirely appropriate.and imo, turning our collective backs on that issue now, is not a reasonable option .

Actually precisely the opposite. Megaphone diplomacy makes it harder, not easier, to get a genuine enquiry about how COVID got into the human population and spread.

The question is whether you are aiming to score political points or genuinely enquire into what we can do to avoid a repeat pandemic.

DS
 
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Althom there are things you post that I disagree with but not this.

A long way back in the COVID thread I posted that instead of calling on an investigation into China's role in COVID-19 we should have been lobbying with other countries for a call made through an international body to investigate how the pandemic started and how the world and it's public health systems reacted to it. This would have allowed China to be part of that and for it not to be seen as the target ( however justified). In the end that was sort of what happened anyway with the WHO investigation but it was too late because we had said too much publicly.

Agree, finger pointing was never going to get us anywhere and thats what we've seen. A collaborative response to how to deal with pandemics better would have been a better approach.
 
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One of the main problems with ScoMo's response to the doctored photo was that it was in no way aimed at China. Make no mistake, the response was for domestic consumption, to score political points for ScoMo.

I suspect the doctored photo was also created for Chinese domestic political consumption.

Bullies like attention, they beat up on someone else they want the notoriety. You ignore them.

Australia needs to stop the megaphone diplomacy, which is mainly for domestic consumption anyway. We should be working on reducing our reliance on China for exports, reliance on one country is not sustainable, never has been.

DS
Not sure how much domestic viewing the doctored photo got. Twitter is banned in China and I believe it only got legs in China after ScoMo went off the rails about it.
 
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The sh!t will hit the fan if and when China doesn't have to rely on Australian iron ore anymore.

Vale in Brazil have just recently announced a reduced iron ore production forecast for 2020. They expect to produce 300-305 million tonnes of iron ore this year, which is down from the 385 million tonnes in 2018. The tailing dam collapse and Covid has hit Vale very hard.
Australian iron ore has just cracked $100 billion in revenue for the 2019/20 financial year, the previous best was $77.5. It's the first Australian commodity to crack $100 billion. It's been a windfall for the Morrison government during the pandemic.

Morrison will have kittens if Brazil can go from 300 million tonnes back to 385 million tonnes. China will take great delight in taking more of Vale's iron ore. With iron ore bringing $136 a tonne the other day. 85 million tonnes x $136 a tonnes would be a significant hit to the budget.

Morrison has snookered himself, he should have just shut and up kept taking China's money for crayfish, wine and barley etc.
ScoMo is thinking no further ahead than the next election and in the back of his mind will be the thought "If I get beaten I'll retire on my huge pension and all the damage I've done to our export industries won't worry me"
 
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Two points I would like to make; firstly Australia(n's) generally are laid back and slow to take offense, preferring to turn it into a joke or play it down. It comes as a shock to us when the roles are reversed and the other party reacts in what we perceive as their over the top response to our comments. Our 'shirt front' taunt and Russia's response, Aboriginal response to historical events, Muslim reaction to cartoons. In time with effort we begin to realize why an action may be perceived by others as very offensive and may elicit an aggression ("over the top") reaction. The concern is why didn't the Australian Govt. anticipate the Chinese aggressive response to its COVID call for answers? Was it niaive or was it strategic? If you are smart you make the call but anticipate a response based on your understanding of the target. Was ScoMo niaive or led by others with different agendas.
This leads into my second point, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. This organisation is popping up all over our media and I noted the other day it was also on national Japanese news. As a part Government funded organisation it seems to be our 'mouthpiece' for international policy. It is clearly anti China and if you want to feed any conspiracy theory you might have please read Marcus Reubenstein's article "Agents of Foreign Influence." (25 November 2020). If correct we all have reason for concern.
 
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Left media blind to Chinese bullying agenda (paywalled)
Chris Mitchell
The Australian
December 6, 2020

What does China really want from its punishment of Australia, supposedly a partner in a bilateral free trade agreement, and why such differences in media analysis of its actions?

First up, journalists should remember public shows of strength by “president for life” Xi Jinping and his predecessors are usually aimed at a domestic Chinese audience.

Second, left media here, including those who had nothing but praise for the China expertise of former prime minister Kevin Rudd – he of the infamous “Chinese Ratf..kers” slur – will never acknowledge when Scott Morrison does well. Before the offensive and fake Afghan war crimes tweet by a minor Chinese Foreign Ministry official last week, Morrison had been sending conciliatory signals to the dictatorship.

In the Howard years, admittedly with a less aggressive Chinese regime, the ABC and the former Fairfax newspapers could never acknowledge the good work of foreign minister Alexander Downer in managing a formula under which we quietly gave China annual feedback about human rights issues. Nor do the ABC and Guardian Australia today acknowledge it was former Coalition PM Tony Abbott and trade minister Andrew Robb who negotiated the 2015 China free trade agreement.

The left media here has let Labor write its script on Australia-China relations since Gough Whitlam’s recognition of China in December 1972. They are usually wrong.

China may be the No.2 economy in the world but it is not a rich country – GDP per capita is $US8130. Here it is $US54,200, and in the US is $US53,240. The role of the Chinese Communist Party in driving growth in the world’s most populous nation should always be acknowledged.

But it was not always so: 60 million Chinese died, largely from famine, under Mao Zedong in the late 1950s and early ’60s. Today’s China is at the forefront of technological development, largely because under Mao’s successors pure Marxist ideology was dumped. Xi is putting Marxism front and centre for the first time in five decades. It is not clear this will work.

An insightful piece about his leadership was published in the US journal Foreign Affairs in its May/June edition. Author Minxin Pei cites concerns in China’s bureaucracy and academia about the regime’s mishandling of early stages of the coronavirus and about an economic slowdown in China triggered by the global pandemic.

Foreign Affairs discusses the concentration of power under Xi since he declared himself supreme leader for life. Whereas once the decision-making processes of the Central Committee were slower, they were also less susceptible to individual misjudgment. Central Committee members could play devil’s advocate and, while cumbersome, not too much went wrong over the past two decades.

Xi has embarked on political and academic purges of his critics, many of whom have risked their positions and lives. In Confucian theory dynastic change follows loss of the “Heavenly Mandate”, as this column and online journal Quillette have pointed out. Critics in China argue the virus and the slowing of the economy are signs Xi is losing moral authority.

The Sydney Morning Herald on Wednesday published Professor Anne-Marie Brady, one of the few academics in this region – with our own Professor Clive Hamilton – willing to call out Chinese influence in Western universities. Prof Brady said the Turnbull and Morrison Coalition governments had “taken a principled stand on … freedom of navigation in the South China Sea”, had passed laws ‘’prohibiting systematic Chinese political interference activities” and asked for an investigation into the origins of COVID-19. The Coalition had also banned Chinese telecom giant Huawei from the national 5G rollout. Prof Brady said of the Afghan tweet: “Morrison’s request that China apologise for the actions of its diplomat … is no more or less than what China itself would have done under the circumstances.” China had demanded exactly such an apology on November 23 after the ABC broadcast an allegedly racist children’s program showing an Empress eating rats and insects.

SMH political and international editor Peter Hartcher hit the mark on December 1, arguing “the evidence reveals that the supposedly mighty regime of strongman Xi Jinping is the one feeling the strain”. Hartcher said China’s Ambassador Cheng Jingye gave the game away in April when he publicly threatened Australian exports of wine, beef and barley, and hinted at disruption to tourism and international student flows to Australia. Those threats were in response to the suggestion from Morrison that the source of the pandemic should be fully investigated. Fair enough, thought 130 other countries.

Wrote Hartcher: “Xi’s regime saw Australia as defiant. Worse, Australia’s defiance was encouraging other countries.” He quoted Harvard academic Ross Terrill on China’s problem: “It is a state that is oppressive, yet also afraid of its own people.”

The false Afghan tweet and the list of 14 Australian “offences” the Chinese Embassy gave to Channel 9 a fortnight ago have only hardened public opinion here, and created support for Australia around the world.

Trade is at the centre of Xi’s problems but we are not his trade problem. The US, and specifically tariffs imposed by President Trump, are. Xi and many in Beijing believe China’s handling of the coronavirus shows how much stronger it is than the US, racked by 15 million cases and 280,000 deaths. Yet Xi can do nothing to change the will of a US president.

In my view, he will change course after the inauguration of President-elect Biden and the pressure will come off Australia. Xi has been kicking us because he is not strong enough to kick our ally yet needs his people to believe he is. He portrays action against us, a long-time US ally, as a sign of his strength. It is in fact a sign of his weakness.

Many in the Australian media have always supported the Labor lines of former prime minister Paul Keating and former NSW premier Bob Carr: that our economic future rests with China, which will inevitably become the world’s most powerful nation militarily and economically.

It’s been the line from the Department of Foreign Affairs for decades. But events may yet prove it wrong. And we can of course trade with China and preserve our US alliance.

The positive for us from China’s bullying is a new community acceptance we need to diversify our markets. Of course Morrison must try to settle the trade relationship with China. But he also has to try to keep the US engaged in the Pacific while strengthening Australia’s regional trade and defence ties with India, Japan and Indonesia.

China will do whatever it wants in its own interests. We can neither depend on it nor influence it. And like Japan before it, China may face many more economic hurdles than its boosters admit. The transition from factory for the world to modern economy driven by domestic consumption will be difficult.

Without a free-floating currency and with all the rigidities of a Marxist centrally planned state there are many landmines ahead for the Dragon, as Rowan Callick described in Inquirer last Saturday week.
 
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The outbreak in Wuhan as being an early centre for the spreading of Covid, was disclosed by the WHO, and later, was widely reported in the west. Some apparently think that Australia's request for an investigation of the matter got into trouble simply because it mentioned Wuhan.
Now the CP is trying to prevent an investigation and typically won't cooperate with any process it can't control.
A million plus have died.
I appreciate the niceties of your different arguments, but really the risk that this situation will occur again is too great to turn our back now.
 
What you say is irrefutable, the world must investigate how and why of the pandemic. Its the blame game and reactions to this that have become the problem. In politics its not what you say but how you say it, and whether we like it or not we have offended a bully. Was Scomo niaive about this or was he running an agenda a question I and the rest of the world would like to know.
 
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Although I'm not against doing an "investigation" of how Covid started and spread from Wuhan, it's only a part of the story. Don't discount the political element as well - politicians around the world will want to make this a "Chinese" problem instead of dealing with the fallout of mismanagement when the virus hit their own countries.

This will not be the last pandemic and the next one won't necessarily come from China. It's equally or more important to look at how we control spread of pandemics in populations once it hits.
 
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Watching Extinction on ABC now provides another reason to hold China in disdain. Though they aren't the only ones involved in the illegal Wild life trade they represent a lot of the demand. Did you know elephant tusks have an 80% cure rate for cancer?
Later in the same show it also raised the risks of increasing human interaction with all sorts of wild animals leading to the potential for viruses etc to cross into humans.
Should also mention that land clearing is probably the biggest threat to species survival and bio diversity. As the world gets richer and more populous the demand for certain animal and vegetable foods has seen rampant clearing of forests and other habitats. China is not solely to blame but simply by weight of numbers it is a big factor. However we per Capita play our role and also continue to clear land in QLd to capitalise on the global demand.