Coronavirus | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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Coronavirus

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Bill James

Guest
mrposhman said:
Someone just explained it on the programme on Channel 10 around isolation and it was really impactful. I didn't quite get the maths (and I'm a stats guy) but you get the gist.

Flu with the 1.4 once it gets to I think they said 10 transmissions down you've infected 14 people or it might have been 140, but Corona infects 59,000. The issue isn't that this is that much more devastating than the flu (its definitely worse) but the problem with it is the extreme level of infectiveness (not sure that's a word) is way way higher than the flu.
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Then why does the WHO explicitly say its not?

Contation Rate.png
 
Baloo

Baloo

Delisted Free Agent
Nov 8, 2005
44,172
19,044
I guess the Italians are using refrigerated warehouses as temporary morgues just for laughs
 
B

Bill James

Guest
Harry said:
Does the flu ever overwhelm health systems where people lie dying in hallways and makeshift hospitals built as we are seeing with covid?
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How many? Where? Why?

You are happy to declare a situation overwhelming, when does the economic cost become overwhelming Harry? When the number of livelihoods lost = the number of COVID deaths, or when it -equals the number of COVID cases, or when it equals a million, 10 million, a 100 million.

Lots of people are already in social isolation and are told by the authorities that they should be. How long before individuals stop feeling isolated from society and start feeling alienated by that society? A society where the well paid in secure jobs are making decisions for the tens of millions on behalf of tens of thousands. How many individuals need to feel they are not part of the society that rules them out of a livelihood before it becomes overwhelming.

We have gone from hoarding dunny roll, to looting in Sicilly, to skirmishes between police from Hubei and the neighboring province on the border over who is stopping the Hubei people crossing the border for work. This morning I play golf (solo on a par 3 course that is only allowed 12 players at a time, and pairs are only allowed if they live together) we are surveilled by a police drone to see if we are observing social isolation.

We are living in dangerous times, and in my view on numbers that are underwhelming.
 
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KnightersRevenge

KnightersRevenge

Baby Knighters is 7!! WTF??
Aug 21, 2007
6,787
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Ireland
Bill James said:
The WHO has already said explicitly that COVID does not spread as fast as the flu. Directly from the WHO situation update on 6th March.

View attachment 9696


Yes the RO for COVID is about double the flu, which means you can pass it on to twice as many people.

BUT

The incubation period is longer, which means it takes longer before you can pass it on,

and

Pre-symptomatic transmission of the flu is likley, whereas pre-symptomatic (and asymptomatic) cases are not seen as major drivers of transmission of COVID

and

Socially mobile children who are important links in flu transmission do not appear to important in COVID transmission.

The maths says you might pass COVID onto twice as many people as the flu, but you will pass the flu on more than twice as fast which is why the WHO can confidently and explicitly say

"This means that influenza can spread faster than COVID 19".
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THE MAP IS NOT THE TERRITORY. Yes flu spreads "faster" but COVID-19 spreads much more, literally to more people. But there has been enough said on here about why the differences matter. Anyone still arguing the "flu vs Covid-19" is just being argumentative or stubborn at this stage.

And then there is stuff like this:
"There were still traces of coronavirus on the Diamond Princess cruise ship 17 days after it emptied of passengers, according to a new study by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The finding suggests the virus can persist on surfaces for a lot longer than previously thought."
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/...on-surfaces-for-a-lot-longer-than-we-thought/
 
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Brodders17

Tiger Legend
Mar 21, 2008
17,818
12,012
craig said:
Can we shelve the Lefty politics love in and move it to the politics board.

Its getting pretty tiresome on


Seeing that we won, hanging **** on that will never get old.
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Lefty love in??
You wont stop those rabid lefties like Harry and L2R4R8 carrying on.
 
B

Bill James

Guest
waiting said:
COVID-19 causes more severe disease than seasonal influenza.

While many people globally have built up immunity to seasonal flu strains, COVID-19 is a new virus to which no one has immunity. That means more people are susceptible to infection, and some will suffer severe disease.

Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.
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Then why are so few people being infected compared to the flu?
 
tigersnake

tigersnake

Tear 'em apart
Sep 10, 2003
23,744
12,239
craig said:
Can we shelve the Lefty politics love in and move it to the politics board.

Its getting pretty tiresome on
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?? I must have missed it. Are you saying you can have a discussion about a global pandemic that is politics free? If so, that is unbelievably naive.
 
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Coburgtiger

Coburgtiger

Tiger Legend
May 7, 2012
5,048
7,269
Bill James said:
How many? Where? Why?

You are happy to declare a situation overwhelming, when does the economic cost become overwhelming Harry? When the number of livelihoods lost = the number of COVID deaths, or when it -equals the number of COVID cases, or when it equals a million, 10 million, a 100 million.

Lots of people are already in social isolation and are told by the authorities that they should be. How long before individuals stop feeling isolated from society and start feeling alienated by that society? A society where the well paid in secure jobs are making decisions for the tens of millions on behalf of tens of thousands. How many individuals need to feel they are not part of the society that rules them out of a livelihood before it becomes overwhelming.

We have gone from hoarding dunny roll, to looting in Sicilly, to skirmishes between police from Hubei and the neighboring province on the border over who is stopping the Hubei people crossing the border for work. This morning I play golf (solo on a par 3 course that is only allowed 12 players at a time, and pairs are only allowed if they live together) we are surveilled by a police drone to see if we are observing social isolation.

We are living in dangerous times, and in my view on numbers that are underwhelming.
Click to expand...

My god. I didn't realise this was affecting your golf game.

You really need to stop the horrendous garbage posting.
 
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B

Bill James

Guest
KnightersRevenge said:
THE MAP IS NOT THE TERRITORY. Yes flu spreads "faster" but COVID-19 spreads much more, literally to more people. But there has been enough said on here about why the differences matter. Anyone still arguing the "flu vs Covid-19" is just being argumentative or stubborn at this stage.

And then there is stuff like this:
"There were still traces of coronavirus on the Diamond Princess cruise ship 17 days after it emptied of passengers, according to a new study by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The finding suggests the virus can persist on surfaces for a lot longer than previously thought."
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/...on-surfaces-for-a-lot-longer-than-we-thought/
Click to expand...
IT doesn't spread to more people, thats exactly the point. The flu infects about a billion people a year. How many COVID cases are there, we haven't reached a million yet. Its been in the wild for three months and is already in 140 countries. If it spreads faster to people like you say, why hasn't it?
 
Baloo

Baloo

Delisted Free Agent
Nov 8, 2005
44,172
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Given the unprecedented pressure on hospitals, funeral homes and crematoriums around Madrid, an ice rink in the city has been transformed into a temporary morgue. Palacio de Hielo, as it is known, received the first coffins on Monday. The freezing temperatures are expected to protect the bodies until funeral homes have the capacity to bury or cremate them.
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I wonder if they do the same every year for the flu
 
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craig

craig

Tiger Legend
Aug 19, 2004
45,987
29,743
Melbourne
tigersnake said:
?? I must have missed it. Are you saying you can have a discussion about a global pandemic that is politics free? If so, that is unbelievably naive.
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As a health professional I'm far from $%^*$$^& naive especially in regard to this topic as I'm on the front line dealing with it can I ask the same of yourself?

I'm just getting tired as are many I'm sure of the politicking on seemingly every second thread on here these days.

And it most certainly is possible to have discussion without everything being a left/right political argument.
 
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