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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
- Start date
What Sweden's experience tells us about the herd immunity model
The debate about the wisdom of Sweden's strategy on the coronavirus pandemic is as fierce as it has ever been, but is a recent dramatic fall in cases a sign it was all worth it?
www.abc.net.au
Jury going to be out for a few years yet
Agree. There are other anti-Sweden articles bemoaning there high detah rate. All very confusing.
What Sweden's experience tells us about the herd immunity model
The debate about the wisdom of Sweden's strategy on the coronavirus pandemic is as fierce as it has ever been, but is a recent dramatic fall in cases a sign it was all worth it?
Jury going to be out for a few years yet
I reckon the debate over Sweden's approach to COVID will go for some time. While you can see the logic of trying for herd immunity, given that the findings to date indicate that immunity is questionable at best once someone has had the virus, the idea of trying for herd immunity does go against the evidence.
Victoria seems to have reduced the number of infections and it has gone to a lower level:
The question now is whether we can get it right down to the level where we can remove the current restrictions.
The good signs are that the 7 day trailing average is now 268.71 on the DHHS figures (retrospectively updated each day) which I use, and that is the lowest it has been since 18 July. The 5 day rolling average is now 244.2 which is lower than it has been since 13 July.
This is such a waiting game.
DS
Victoria seems to have reduced the number of infections and it has gone to a lower level:
The question now is whether we can get it right down to the level where we can remove the current restrictions.
The good signs are that the 7 day trailing average is now 268.71 on the DHHS figures (retrospectively updated each day) which I use, and that is the lowest it has been since 18 July. The 5 day rolling average is now 244.2 which is lower than it has been since 13 July.
This is such a waiting game.
DS
The massive drop in active cases has thrown my chart completely out of whack. Looks like they've had a scrub of the data and removed those that tested positive but were not hospitalised but tested positive a while ago.
I've since changed my charts on active cases to show the actual number of active cases (outside of aged care and healthcare) which is below. Its the lowest it has been since the data for numbers in aged care and healthcare were released. We are down to 2300 active cases outside of aged care and healthcare.
The other chart which really shows the 2 pronged impact we have in the state is below. This shows the % of active cases in each grouping, aged care, healthcare and the remainder (community). Community has been trending down for a while now and for the 1st time since this data was 1st provided, is now below 50% of the total active cases. ie. we have 2300 in community but we have 2564 in aged care and healthcare equaling the quoted 4864 active cases.
I've since changed my charts on active cases to show the actual number of active cases (outside of aged care and healthcare) which is below. Its the lowest it has been since the data for numbers in aged care and healthcare were released. We are down to 2300 active cases outside of aged care and healthcare.
The other chart which really shows the 2 pronged impact we have in the state is below. This shows the % of active cases in each grouping, aged care, healthcare and the remainder (community). Community has been trending down for a while now and for the 1st time since this data was 1st provided, is now below 50% of the total active cases. ie. we have 2300 in community but we have 2564 in aged care and healthcare equaling the quoted 4864 active cases.
Great charts, appreciate the effort from @mrposhman, @DavidSSS and also previously @LeeToRainesToRoach for his daily updates
They don't update this until late in the day but the DHHS web page has over 7,000 active cases as of late yesterday. The other issue is that for my chart I can get the numbers for daily infection going back a couple of months, and adjust as they adjust their numbers (cases move between days but generally the number goes down for each day over time, for example, 4 August started over 700 and is now listed as 694), but the number of active cases each day does not include the numbers for previous days, which also means if they are adjusting these numbers as the data comes in and is refined, you just can't see it.
Even without adjusting for revisions it is very useful to see where the cases are.
Funny how the numbers are different depending on where you source them from.
DS
The new case numbers finally seem to be heading in the right direction and the number of active cases has dropped markedly. Good signs that this pain in the arse but necessary lockdown is taking effect.
Unfortunately we’re still likely to see many more deaths before this is over.
That is a good number today. There is certainly hope, as the number of new infections go down, the number of people who are infected should also go down and that makes it easier to avoid the spread of the virus.
Here's what it looks like today:
Both the 7 day trailing and 5 day rolling averages are heading in the right direction.
Of course we now need to sort out how we keep the numbers going down and what we do if we can get it to negligible levels, how we open up again, what happens to travel etc and still avoid another upsurge. No easy answers.
DS
Here's what it looks like today:
Both the 7 day trailing and 5 day rolling averages are heading in the right direction.
Of course we now need to sort out how we keep the numbers going down and what we do if we can get it to negligible levels, how we open up again, what happens to travel etc and still avoid another upsurge. No easy answers.
DS
Strong numbers again today. Declines in active cases in all 3 areas, but much quicker decline outside of aged care and healthcare. Only just over 2000 active cases now outside of aged care and healthcare.
The best thing about todays numbers though for me, were that the testing rates were back up, but the positive test rate was low compared to where we have been, in fact its the lowest since the 18th July at 0.83%. Still a fair way to go, NSW for example is under 0.1% but we are certainly getting closer to our goal than where we were 3 or 4 weeks ago.
The best thing about todays numbers though for me, were that the testing rates were back up, but the positive test rate was low compared to where we have been, in fact its the lowest since the 18th July at 0.83%. Still a fair way to go, NSW for example is under 0.1% but we are certainly getting closer to our goal than where we were 3 or 4 weeks ago.
Is this what you are after?
Daily Positive Test Rate - COVID Live
Live tracking of coronavirus cases, active, tests, deaths, ICU, hospitalisations and vaccinations in Victoria
covidlive.com.au
Part of that is that with the massive increase the data got behind and they are now catching up. It's definitely going down but part of it is the data catch up.
Same with the "mystery cases" which just means that they haven't traced the contact and we should expect that to catch up as well.
Lots of good data here too: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...w-covid-19-spreads-in-australia/12060704?nw=0 A ot of graphs which allow you to see things well, I think the tests versus new cases (7 day averages) is a good one to visually see what is going on.
Sintiger, yep, the lower new case numbers will give them more time to trace the untraced cases. If they can catch up on that we will be in a much better position.
We'll have to see what tomorrow brings but another day under 200 would be great.
Interesting article on how the US has (mis)handled the pandemic here: https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/a-pandemic-letter-from-an-aussie-in-the-usa
DS
Sintiger, yep, the lower new case numbers will give them more time to trace the untraced cases. If they can catch up on that we will be in a much better position.
We'll have to see what tomorrow brings but another day under 200 would be great.
Interesting article on how the US has (mis)handled the pandemic here: https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/a-pandemic-letter-from-an-aussie-in-the-usa
DS
Great article DS. One line stood out for me "The US has the highest health care costs in the OECD, with the worst health outcomes among similar countries."
This is the consequence of a mostly privatised health system and an insurance system that inflates costs, with minimal public health spending. If you are poor, your outcomes will be bad.
Minister's 35 seconds of silence highlights coronavirus aged care failures
When the minister responsible for an aged care system in crisis fronted a parliamentary inquiry, he was asked a simple and predictable question yet didn't have the answer.
www.abc.net.au
This was very hard to watch. This minister Richard Colbeck racing towards the lead and about to pass Jenny Mikakos as the most incompetent and unrelatable political figure in a ministerial position in Australia.
Royal commission needed into aged care as part of a wider a wider royal commission into Covid-19 a must.
Minister's 35 seconds of silence highlights coronavirus aged care failures
When the minister responsible for an aged care system in crisis fronted a parliamentary inquiry, he was asked a simple and predictable question yet didn't have the answer.
This was very hard to watch. This minister Richard Colbeck racing towards the lead and about to pass Jenny Mikakos as the most incompetent and unrelatable political figure in a ministerial position in Australia.
Royal commission needed into aged care as part of a wider a wider royal commission into Covid-19 a must.
What a complete fail. Absolute ineptitude.
I think NSW have already started one.Minister's 35 seconds of silence highlights coronavirus aged care failures
When the minister responsible for an aged care system in crisis fronted a parliamentary inquiry, he was asked a simple and predictable question yet didn't have the answer.
This was very hard to watch. This minister Richard Colbeck racing towards the lead and about to pass Jenny Mikakos as the most incompetent and unrelatable political figure in a ministerial position in Australia.
Royal commission needed into aged care as part of a wider a wider royal commission into Covid-19 a must.
There has been been a RC into Aged Care since 2018 and has already issued an interim report last year....and has already extended its remit to cover COVID 19 responses. Final report in Feb 2021.Minister's 35 seconds of silence highlights coronavirus aged care failures
When the minister responsible for an aged care system in crisis fronted a parliamentary inquiry, he was asked a simple and predictable question yet didn't have the answer.
This was very hard to watch. This minister Richard Colbeck racing towards the lead and about to pass Jenny Mikakos as the most incompetent and unrelatable political figure in a ministerial position in Australia.
Royal commission needed into aged care as part of a wider a wider royal commission into Covid-19 a must.
And I agree Colbeck is a shocker I emailed my MHR several weeks ago to say he had to go. Mikados should have been walked months ago.
