Coronavirus

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

On August 13 I posted a link to an article explaining the fact that as most people become vaccinated there will be more people dying who are vaccinated than who are not vaccinated.

Still doesn't provide a full explanation for the trend we're seeing.

In the past four days, the percentage of double-vaxxed people hospitalised has risen by 52%
In the past four days, the percentage of unvaxxed people hospitalised has risen by 47%

Comparable but I would expect the percentage of double-vaxxed to rise much more slowly given two doses means you're 96% less likely to be hospitalised.

Perhaps it has something to do with the very small numbers involved with respect to the total populations (1.05m unvaxxed, 2.62m double-vaxxed). Will revisit when there's more data available.

 

[AngryAnt]

Since when is anyone following the National plan??? Nothing more than a politician dribble fest since the very first meeting.

Yep, you hate the pollies, we know.

 

[Sintiger]

Are dozens of people talking about this on youtube? If not, if sounds like fake news

There is a lot of work going on in regards to the treatment of the virus including the use of some of these anti-virals.
There is also a lot of work happening on improving the vaccines.

 

[Tigers of Old]

2 days in row we have had more cases despite NSW having double the testing

NSW vaccination rates are higher because vaccines were sent to NSW as a priority. Not really a surprise that their numbers are coming down because of it. Lets see where we are at when at a similar vaccination mark. They were at 1300 cases a day not too long ago.
Couple that with covidiots protesting.

 

[MB78]

First and Second Doses Administered by LGA - COVID Live

Live tracking of coronavirus cases, active, tests, deaths, ICU, hospitalisations and vaccinations in Victoria

covidlive.com.au

NSW vaccination rates are higher because vaccines were sent to NSW as a priority. Not really a surprise that their numbers are coming down because of it. Lets see where we are at when at a similar vaccination mark. They were at 1300 cases a day not too long ago.
Couple that with covidiots protesting.

I think that we would have had a greater proportion of our state vaccinated than NSW at the same period.

It’s probably explainable in the above. Melbourne overall a lot less vaccinations than regional areas.

I read that NSW took a lot of the doses out of regional NSW and committed them to the LGA’s that were having the most cases. So they were more targeted.

We have not taken that approach (which I’m not critical about) to what I have seen besides an extra 32,000 doses of Moderna going to Hume.

However I think it’s time to have a campaign to get Melbourne LGA vaccination rates up. We can’t afford to have the busiest part of Melbourne full of people that aren’t vaccinated. This won’t help our chances of being out of heavy restrictions when at 80%.

 

[Ian4]

The media seem to be ignoring the announcement by NSW this week that they are opening up to the unvaxxed on December 1. Those reckless idiots have just enabled the anti-vaxxers. You watch the NSW vaccination rates slow down now.

on another note, i stumbled upon this on twitter

 

[caesar]

NSW vaccination rates are higher because vaccines were sent to NSW as a priority. Not really a surprise that their numbers are coming down because of it. Lets see where we are at when at a similar vaccination mark. They were at 1300 cases a day not too long ago.
Couple that with covidiots protesting.

950 and deaths kicking in at 7.
As MB78 mentioned VIC vaccination rate was higher than NSW at the period things started to escalate yet VIC growing so much faster than NSW was. That is not Dan's fault it is more about Victorians non compliance, protests, construction industry debacle, mask wearing and basically not giving a *smile*!
Dan just shouldn't have thrown stones as you just knew it would come back to bite.

 

[22nd Man]

The media seem to be ignoring the announcement by NSW this week that they are opening up to the unvaxxed on December 1. Those reckless idiots have just enabled the anti-vaxxers. You watch the NSW vaccination rates slow down now.

on another note, i stumbled upon this on twitter

View attachment 13704

Not the mainstream media I consume. Age, HS, ABC. Even HS editorial was critical of NSW Premier for introducing this 90% easing. (no surprises in your graph; from another post yesterday seems "wont get vaxxed" crowd is not concentrated in one part of Our political spectrum as starkly as the US)

 

[mrposhman]

There is a lot of work going on in regards to the treatment of the virus including the use of some of these anti-virals.
There is also a lot of work happening on improving the vaccines.

You may have missed my sarcasm. I'm all for the research just commenting on the YT brigade stating "cures" for covid rather than listening to actual scientists.

 

[mrposhman]

Still doesn't provide a full explanation for the trend we're seeing.

In the past four days, the percentage of double-vaxxed people hospitalised has risen by 52%
In the past four days, the percentage of unvaxxed people hospitalised has risen by 47%

Comparable but I would expect the percentage of double-vaxxed to rise much more slowly given two doses means you're 96% less likely to be hospitalised.

Perhaps it has something to do with the very small numbers involved with respect to the total populations (1.05m unvaxxed, 2.62m double-vaxxed). Will revisit when there's more data available.

52% versus 47% is not statistically that different. Bear in mind more people across that time have become double vaxxed whilst the unvaccinated proportion of the population would have declined so statistically you would expect the proportion to increase.

I also think the age of those double dosed in hospital is important but I haven't seen whether that data has been released.

 

[AngryAnt]

Not the mainstream media I consume. Age, HS, ABC. Even HS editorial was critical of NSW Premier for introducing this 90% easing. (no surprises in your graph; from another post yesterday seems "wont get vaxxed" crowd is not concentrated in one part of Our political spectrum as starkly as the US)

Yep, in Trump Land they thought it would be a good idea to downplay the virus, and then once Trump lost to continue to demonise the Covid response. Hence you have the Ivermectin brigade saying the Obama and Fauci funded the development of Covid in the lab to *smile* with Trump. Even smart people like Lamb bought into this narrative.

There's also the ignorant evangelical Christian southern vote who will see any random government or medical thing as the mark of Satan.

They could have gone the other way and sold it as Trump's victory due to the fast pace of the US vaccine development - not entirely true of course since AZ and other vaccines were not developed in the US but whatever. Once the Trump failed "stolen election" gambit failed they went all in on this fake virus/dangerous vaccine nonsense.

For a guy who claims to be the greatest political strategist in history Trump really is a dumb *smile*.

These republican strategists have a lot of blood on their hands. Mostly the people who voted Republican.

 

[Sintiger]

You may have missed my sarcasm. I'm all for the research just commenting on the YT brigade stating "cures" for covid rather than listening to actual scientists.

Got it ! I did miss the sarcasm

 

[IanG]

Since when is anyone following the National plan??? Nothing more than a politician dribble fest since the very first meeting.

Vic's plan is pretty much in accordance wiht the National Plan.

 

[DavidSSS]

Still doesn't provide a full explanation for the trend we're seeing.

In the past four days, the percentage of double-vaxxed people hospitalised has risen by 52%
In the past four days, the percentage of unvaxxed people hospitalised has risen by 47%

Comparable but I would expect the percentage of double-vaxxed to rise much more slowly given two doses means you're 96% less likely to be hospitalised.

Perhaps it has something to do with the very small numbers involved with respect to the total populations (1.05m unvaxxed, 2.62m double-vaxxed). Will revisit when there's more data available.

Not sure about the proportions there, going by your figures:
Unvaccinated: 77% of the 297 hospital admission on 24 Sept means 229 cases, 78% of 375 on 28 Sept is 292. A 27% rise.
Vaccinated: 4% of the 297 hospital admissions on 24 Sept means 12 cases, 5% of the 375 on 28 Sept is 19. A 58% rise.

I would think the number of vaccinated cases is going to rise and fall by greater proportions while the numbers are low, but they will rise over time as a higher proportion of the population are vaccinated and there are more break through infections, some leading to hospitalisation.

More data will surely make this clearer. I am not convinced a trend is much use for vaccinated cases with such small numbers. More time helps with small numbers as we can smooth out the trend. Given the numbers in terms of vaccinated people being hospitalised just one more case is a 5% rise so we would need larger numbers or more days of data to see what is happening.

Given that almost 50% of the 16+ population is vaccinated, and that you are far more likely to be hospitalised if you are older (disease has more impact on older people) and the older groups in the population have higher vaccination rates, the fact that only 5% of hospitalised patients are vaccinated leads me to conclude the vaccines are keeping people out of hospital.

DS

 

[Tigers of Old]

15 Deaths today in NSW.

 

[TT33]

52% versus 47% is not statistically that different. Bear in mind more people across that time have become double vaxxed whilst the unvaccinated proportion of the population would have declined so statistically you would expect the proportion to increase.

I also think the age of those double dosed in hospital is important but I haven't seen whether that data has been released.

The number of double vaxed patients hospitalised with covid is very small compared to those that are unvaxed, so those %s are skewed accordingly.

50% of lets say 10 is far lower than 47% of lets say 100, so the quoted %s are meaningless.

 

[jb03]

Thoughts that Vic had already topped out or the curve was flattening are proving to be overly optimistic.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Delta is so contagious. These numbers are rocketing up even whilst we're supposedly locked down (most of us ). Be crazy not to get vaccinated.

 

[AngryAnt]

52% versus 47% is not statistically that different. Bear in mind more people across that time have become double vaxxed whilst the unvaccinated proportion of the population would have declined so statistically you would expect the proportion to increase.

It's totally insignificant given the small numbers. Case/death numbers on individual days jump around like crazy, you have to smooth it out with rolling averages.

 

[mrposhman]

The number of double vaxed patients hospitalised with covid is very small compared to those that are unvaxed, so those %s are skewed accordingly.

50% of lets say 10 is far lower than 47% of lets say 100, so the quoted %s are meaningless.

Agree small numbers can move at huge %'s without really impacting the overall numbers too much. It would be useful to see the ages of those that are double vaxxed and in hospital too