Global Warming

[Djevv]

Yeah he doesn’t deny warming or that the extra carbon in the atmosphere caused by man. He just suggests that the observed warming (using satellites) is out of step with the modelling on the low side. Check this image I tried & failed to post it here. https://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/CMIP5-73-models-vs-obs-20N-20S-MT-5-yr-means1.png

He thinks the warming may be in part natural and not as extreme as reported in the media.

 

[Coburgtiger]

A young man watches his house burn down.
His wife says "Should we put it out? The baby's in there."
He shakes his head. "Not to worry, the fire is burning because the house is flammable. It was always flammable. I didn't make it flammable. Burning is perfectly natural. The kerosene I threw on it is only a small part of the problem."
She looks at him quizzically. "But should we put it out."
He ponders. "Hmmm. No, it is natural for things to burn. I might add a little kerosene though."
The baby cries.

 

[Djevv]

I think his point is we don’t need to panic about the effect of the carbon. The observations do not match the predictions. So the house is not burning down, it was all just a bad dream.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

A young man watches his house burn down.
His wife says "Should we put it out? The baby's in there."
He shakes his head. "Not to worry, the fire is burning because the house is flammable. It was always flammable. I didn't make it flammable. Burning is perfectly natural. The kerosene I threw on it is only a small part of the problem."
She looks at him quizzically. "But should we put it out."
He ponders. "Hmmm. No, it is natural for things to burn. I might add a little kerosene though."
The baby cries.

The husband being the dumbarse, naturally. Very Left of you.

 

[Coburgtiger]

The husband being the dumbarse, naturally. Very Left of you.

Interesting that you take his point of view as being a dumbarse.

 

[Coburgtiger]

The husband being the dumbarse, naturally. Very Left of you.

Plus, I considered making them a trans-gendered gay couple, but the pronouns got confusing.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Interesting that you take his point of view as being a dumbarse.

They're both dumbarses. The "fire" is just a trick of the light, and the baby's crying because it's hungry.

 

[lamb22]

In the book The Evolution Crisis, Spencer wrote, "I finally became convinced that the theory of creation actually had a much better scientific basis than the theory of evolution, for the creation model was actually better able to explain the physical and biological complexity in the world. [...] Science has startled us with its many discoveries and advances, but it has hit a brick wall in its attempt to rid itself of the need for a creator and designer.

 

[lamb22]

Interesting that Fundo loonies are the preferred source of scientific authority for deniers.

 

[AngryAnt]

In the book The Evolution Crisis, Spencer wrote, "I finally became convinced that the theory of creation actually had a much better scientific basis than the theory of evolution, for the creation model was actually better able to explain the physical and biological complexity in the world. [...] Science has startled us with its many discoveries and advances, but it has hit a brick wall in its attempt to rid itself of the need for a creator and designer.

Jesus Christ.

Pun intended.

 

[Coburgtiger]

In the book The Evolution Crisis, Spencer wrote, "I finally became convinced that the theory of creation actually had a much better scientific basis than the theory of evolution, for the creation model was actually better able to explain the physical and biological complexity in the world. [...] Science has startled us with its many discoveries and advances, but it has hit a brick wall in its attempt to rid itself of the need for a creator and designer.

Wow.

 

[Djevv]

Did anyone look at the graph?

If you doubt his expertise check this list of peer reviewed publications on climate science: https://www.drroyspencer.com/research-articles/

Doesn’t mean he is right but it does mean he is worth listening to.

 

[AngryAnt]

Did anyone look at the graph?

If you doubt his expertise check this list of peer reviewed publications on climate science: https://www.drroyspencer.com/research-articles/

Doesn’t mean he is right but it does mean he is worth listening to.

Scientists have looked at his publications and assessed them.

Roy Spencer

Roy Spencer is one of the few climate contrarians with real credentials. That doesn’t stop him from propagating some real whoppers, however. Here I’ve collected links to critiques of …

bbickmore.wordpress.com

 

[DavidSSS]

Ahh, that old chestnut about climate models overestimating the rate of change, which invariably comes with no examples.

The reality is very different.

So much of the modelling has underestimated the rate of change.

To give just one example, the 2007 IPCC Report stated that late summer arctic sea ice is projected to disappear almost completely by the end of the 21st century. It will be lucky to last until mid century at the rate arctic sea ice is disappearing.

In terms of climate models for temperature, they have been pretty damned close, with some underestimating, consider the IPCC modelling:

Note: the IPCC looks at a number of scenarios, the thick black line is the mean scenario with grey lines representing the upper and lower bounds as predicted by their modelling. The coloured lines are actual temperature observations .

1995

Hmm, no overestimating the impact there, more an underestimate.

2001

They're getting closer but still underestimating the rate of change.

2007

The argument that climate modelling is overestimating the warming happening or about to happen is looking weaker by the decade.

2013

Almost spot on, clearly no out of step modelling on the low side.

One other factor - take a good look at the estimates: in the 1995 model they were estimating just on 0.6C of warming by 2020, by the time we get to the 2013 report it is close to 0.9C of warming being predicted by 2020. The models have had to be revised to predict more warming, not less, because the earlier models were out of step . . . the warming is on the high side of the models.

It pays to actually look at the facts.

DS

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Ahh, that old chestnut about climate models overestimating the rate of change, which invariably comes with no examples.

Nonsense.

"Many models still struggle with overall warming; none replicate regional warming well... China’s 'FGOALS-g2' appears to be the best performer at replicating regional trends, but still over/under-predicts the warming trend by about 0.5C per century almost everywhere."

Graphics: Model Performance Against BerkeleyEarth Data Set - Berkeley Earth

berkeleyearth.org

Have a look at the bottom chart in each pair - blue areas indicate how much lower actual temperatures were compared with the model, i.e. most of them.

And that's after retro-fitting/inventing historical observations that never existed!

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Or try this one: Are Climate Models Overstating Warming?

"A number of authors, including the IPCC, have argued that climate models have systematically overstated the rate of global warming in recent decades.

All trends are significantly positive and the models strongly reject against the observations.

The model-observational discrepancy is real, and needs to be taken into account especially when using models for policy guidance."

-----

Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years

"Recent observed global warming is significantly less than that simulated by climate models."

 

[DavidSSS]

Well if you cherry pick around 2012/2013 you get the result you want, not a result which is contradicted by the graphs I included above which show the variability of climate which will not be picked up by models. The trend is that the IPCC models have had to be adjusted up as each new report is written as the older models underestimated the impact. They have been getting closer, starting from a position where the models clearly underestimated climate change, look at the graph above.

If you look at what is happening now it just keeps getting warmer and we keep making it worse by not changing behaviour.

DS

 

[Baloo]

In the book The Evolution Crisis, Spencer wrote, "I finally became convinced that the theory of creation actually had a much better scientific basis than the theory of evolution, for the creation model was actually better able to explain the physical and biological complexity in the world. [...] Science has startled us with its many discoveries and advances, but it has hit a brick wall in its attempt to rid itself of the need for a creator and designer.

Creationist anti-climate change campaigner. All we need is the anti-vaxer cherry on the cake and it's the wacky trifecta.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Creationist anti-climate change campaigner. All we need is the anti-vaxer cherry on the cake and it's the wacky trifecta.

It's almost as paradoxical as being a warmist and barracking for Richmond.

PS Anti-vaxxers sit on your side of the political divide.

 

[Baloo]

It's almost as paradoxical as being a warmist and barracking for Richmond.

PS Anti-vaxxers sit on your side of the political divide.

No need to bring politics into this. I was focusing purely on people's beliefs. From where I sit, all three are as wacky as each other, regardless of who they vote for.