Geelong thoroughly deserve to be favorites and really, it’s theirs to lose. However, there are a few reasons to be quietly confident Sydney can get the job done.
1) Pressure. At least in the first week of the finals Sydney’s pressure was the highest of all teams and Geelong’s was the lowest. Even on their best day Geelong don’t bring the heat like other teams and have struggled when their natural game has been disrupted. For all their talk of changes to their game plan, they are still very much a “control” side.
2) Midfield. Geelong’s midfield runs deep but is still one-paced and a bit “same-same”. If Holmes doesn’t play that will only exacerbate the issue. Sydney on the other hand have a good mix of in and under types and outside run and carry with plenty in between. Plus Sydney have “The Chad” Warner. This kid can seriously play and I don’t think it was a coincidence he was dominant in the first half when Sydney was on top and less so in the second half when Collingwood fought back.
3) forward 50 ground balls. Geelong’s defense is built around intercept marking but I think they are vulnerable against good crumbing forwards and Sydney have those in spades. Bring the ball to ground and I think Sydney can cause the Geelong defenders no end of trouble.
Anyway, what do I know?