Pick 29: Shai Bolton

[Baron Samedi]

folks seem to be saying I reckon we'll be in the wilderness for 10 years. not correct. with the right midfield rebuild we can be contending again in 3-4 years, not just plodding along with a mediocre list.

that's the whole point. truly contending vs. hoping.

and before anyone says "but Bolton will still be prime in 3-4 years", we will still be mediocre because we didn't cut deep enough into this and next year's national drafts.

 

[mrposhman]

totally get what you're saying here but this team isn't good enough, not even with a top five pick added in.

we need to basically rebuild the midfield from the ground up - from the top of the draft - if we want to replicate the 2017-2020 midfield.

this scenario does not provide enough quality. premierships are hard to win.

Certainly not saying we get there with 1 top 5 pick. Its an accumulation of a number of picks that we will regenerate the midfield from.

 

[HKTigerB]

I totally agree with what you are saying. Carts / Baron's 2 personalities seem to have the belief that we have nothing and will be out of any sort of finals mix for the next 10 years, I'm with you, I'm a lot more glass half full than that. Shai is still only 25 and has plenty of footy left in him. If we don't challenge again whilst he is still playing footy then we've done something very wrong.

I look at those 26 and under currently and its better than most suggest (but with a massive void at FF). Only showing those that have debuted so far.

B Gibcus (21), Miller (24), Tresize (21)
HB Rioli (26), Brown (20), Baker (26)
C Banks (21), Taranto (26), RalphSmith (22)
HF Sonsie (21), Balta (24), Campbell (19)
F Mansell (23), ,,,,,,,, MRJ (21)
R Ryan (23), Bolton (25), Ross (23)
I/C Graham (26), Young (25), McAuliffe (19)

That has the startings of a decent team that needs some star power. If we get a top 5 pick, and look to trade with others into the top 10 or around about there. If Bakes wants to go home, then we can arrange for some teens picks there, maybe similar with Graham if he chooses to go home to SA as a FA, depending on salary we may get band 2 or 3 which will be similar picks anyway.

It won't take a lot for the above to turnaround and there are others that could come into that team. Juddy, Coulthard, Cumberland, Dow and Lefau are either good depth or possibly in that best 22 26 and under. Then theres the ones that haven't seen a debut yet, we know the club love Smith and were very complimentary when we signed Fawcett so who knows.

1 good draft / trade period could have a massive impact on where we are in 2 or 3 years time.

The 2 Jacob's both going "What about me, It isn't fair, ..... I want my share..."

 

[Baron Samedi]

Bolton
Ross
Taranto
Hopper
McAuliffe
Dow
Sonsie
Graham
(top ten 2024)
(top ten 2025)

this isn't a premiership winning midfield IMO. won't work for us.

 

[mrposhman]

The 2 Jacob's both going "What about me, It isn't fair, ..... I want my share..."

If the 2 of them can get in that team and be good AFL players then it makes a massive difference to that big void forward of centre. I think Bauer has more chance of making it, possibly in a similar role to what Vlastuin plays for us. Mitch McGovern is probably the type of play he could become behind he ball.

 

[Coburgtiger]

folks seem to be saying I reckon we'll be in the wilderness for 10 years. not correct. with the right midfield rebuild we can be contending again in 3-4 years, not just plodding along with a mediocre list.

that's the whole point. truly contending vs. hoping.

and before anyone says "but Bolton will still be prime in 3-4 years", we will still be mediocre because we didn't cut deep enough into this and next year's national drafts.

The potential upgrade on a 28/29 year old Bolton, from two first round speculations this year, is a ridiculous gamble.

We are more likely to be 'contending' with him, than whatever we would be hoping for in the draft.

Let's say it is 2028 that we're looking to be a contender (lots of assumptions, and we may not ever be a contender again so let's at least get to watch Bolton play yada yada etc).

If, at this point, we were supposedly being helped by the draft of 2024, we could go back 4 years to the draft of 2020 to see what support we're likely to get from a draft after 4 years.

Here is the top 20 of the year.
1. Western Bulldogs: Jamarra Ugle-Hagan

2. Adelaide Crows: Riley Thilthorpe

3. North Melbourne: Will Phillips

4. Sydney Swans: Logan McDonald

5. Sydney Swans: Braeden Campbell

6. Hawthorn: Denver Grainger-Barras

7. Gold Coast Suns: Elijah Hollands

8. Essendon: Nikolas Cox

9. Essendon: Archie Perkins

10. Essendon: Zach Reid

11. Adelaide Crows: Luke Pedlar

12. GWS Giants: Tanner Bruhn

13. North Melbourne: Tom Powell

14. Fremantle: Heath Chapman

15. GWS Giants: Conor Stone

16. Port Adelaide: Lachlan Jones

17. Collingwood: Oliver Henry

18. GWS Giants: Ryan Angwin

19. Collingwood: Finlay Macrae

20. Geelong Cats: Max Holmes

Even if you had picks 1 and 2 in this draft (the best you could ever hope to get for Bolton), and could pick them with the hindsight of right now, there's not 2 picks I would have over a 28 year old Shai Bolton.

And we'd be much more likely to end up with Nic Cox and Conor Stone.

To add to that, a few of the really good ones aren't even at their original club!

Geelong have Bruhn and Henry now (because being a strong, consistent, high performing club is better than bottoming out).

To be a genuine contender, you need players like Bolton. Who we got at pick 28.

 

[mrposhman]

The potential upgrade on a 28/29 year old Bolton, from two first round speculations this year, is a ridiculous gamble.

We are more likely to be 'contending' with him, than whatever we would be hoping for in the draft.

Let's say it is 2028 that we're looking to be a contender (lots of assumptions, and we may not ever be a contender again so let's at least get to watch Bolton play yada yada etc).

If we were supposedly being helped by draft of 2024, we could go back 4 years to the draft of 2020 to see what support were likely to get.

Here is the top 20 of the year.
1. Western Bulldogs: Jamarra Ugle-Hagan

2. Adelaide Crows: Riley Thilthorpe

3. North Melbourne: Will Phillips

4. Sydney Swans: Logan McDonald

5. Sydney Swans: Braeden Campbell

6. Hawthorn: Denver Grainger-Barras

7. Gold Coast Suns: Elijah Hollands

8. Essendon: Nikolas Cox

9. Essendon: Archie Perkins

10. Essendon: Zach Reid

11. Adelaide Crows: Luke Pedlar

12. GWS Giants: Tanner Bruhn

13. North Melbourne: Tom Powell

14. Fremantle: Heath Chapman

15. GWS Giants: Conor Stone

16. Port Adelaide: Lachlan Jones

17. Collingwood: Oliver Henry

18. GWS Giants: Ryan Angwin

19. Collingwood: Finlay Macrae

20. Geelong Cats: Max Holmes

Even if you picks 1 and 2 in this draft (the best you could ever hope to get for Bolton), and could pick them with the hindsight of right now, there's not 2 picks I would have over a 28 year old Shai Bolton.

To add to that, a few of the really good ones aren't even at their original club!

Geelong have Bruhn and Henry now (because being a strong, consistent, high performing club is better than bottoming out).

and more likely we would have 2 picks in the teens.

Pedlar - nah
Bruhn - nah
Powell - Good but he's nowhere near Shai
Chapman - would be ok if he could get on the pack
Stone - who is he?
Jones - hahahahahahahahahahahaha
Henry - Soft mummas boy
Angwin - who is he?
Macrae - Seems to be a much poorer version of crumples
Holmes - Good but came completely from the sky in terms of where he was picked

Would I pick 2 of these guys (and the extra few years they'd play for) or would I pick Shai??? Its Shai everytime for me.

 

[Carter]

and more likely we would have 2 picks in the teens.

Pedlar - nah
Bruhn - nah
Powell - Good but he's nowhere near Shai
Chapman - would be ok if he could get on the pack
Stone - who is he?
Jones - hahahahahahahahahahahaha
Henry - Soft mummas boy
Angwin - who is he?
Macrae - Seems to be a much poorer version of crumples
Holmes - Good but came completely from the sky in terms of where he was picked

Would I pick 2 of these guys (and the extra few years they'd play for) or would I pick Shai??? Its Shai everytime for me.

But naturally we wouldn’t accept 2 picks lower than 10

 

[Carter]

The potential upgrade on a 28/29 year old Bolton, from two first round speculations this year, is a ridiculous gamble.

We are more likely to be 'contending' with him, than whatever we would be hoping for in the draft.

Let's say it is 2028 that we're looking to be a contender (lots of assumptions, and we may not ever be a contender again so let's at least get to watch Bolton play yada yada etc).

If, at this point, we were supposedly being helped by the draft of 2024, we could go back 4 years to the draft of 2020 to see what support we're likely to get from a draft after 4 years.

Here is the top 20 of the year.
1. Western Bulldogs: Jamarra Ugle-Hagan

2. Adelaide Crows: Riley Thilthorpe

3. North Melbourne: Will Phillips

4. Sydney Swans: Logan McDonald

5. Sydney Swans: Braeden Campbell

6. Hawthorn: Denver Grainger-Barras

7. Gold Coast Suns: Elijah Hollands

8. Essendon: Nikolas Cox

9. Essendon: Archie Perkins

10. Essendon: Zach Reid

11. Adelaide Crows: Luke Pedlar

12. GWS Giants: Tanner Bruhn

13. North Melbourne: Tom Powell

14. Fremantle: Heath Chapman

15. GWS Giants: Conor Stone

16. Port Adelaide: Lachlan Jones

17. Collingwood: Oliver Henry

18. GWS Giants: Ryan Angwin

19. Collingwood: Finlay Macrae

20. Geelong Cats: Max Holmes

Even if you had picks 1 and 2 in this draft (the best you could ever hope to get for Bolton), and could pick them with the hindsight of right now, there's not 2 picks I would have over a 28 year old Shai Bolton.

And we'd be much more likely to end up with Nic Cox and Conor Stone.

To add to that, a few of the really good ones aren't even at their original club!

Geelong have Bruhn and Henry now (because being a strong, consistent, high performing club is better than bottoming out).

To be a genuine contender, you need players like Bolton. Who we got at pick 28.

It’s a leap of faith, sure, backed by confidence in the club

You would back the club in to get high picks right considering our record with lower and rookie picks.

If our 2021 haul comes to fruition our recent recruiting looks a lot better.

I’d back us to pick the eyes out of this years crop if we got a handful of picks in the first round

 

[Coburgtiger]

It’s a leap of faith, sure, backed by confidence in the club

You would back the club in to get high picks right considering our record with lower and rookie picks.

If our 2021 haul comes to fruition our recent recruiting looks a lot better.

I’d back us to pick the eyes out of this years crop if we got a handful of picks in the first round.

Sure. I mean. You're dreaming, but sure. Let's say we've gotten better than the Corey Ellis and Ben Lennon picks.

The point was that even the best picks from 4 years ago are not as useful as Bolton. So you're not talking about improving our ability to contend within 4 years. You're talking about 7+ years.

I would rather have Bolton than Jamarra and Hollands.

 

[AngryAnt]

It’s a leap of faith, sure, backed by confidence in the club

You would back the club in to get high picks right considering our record with lower and rookie picks.

If our 2021 haul comes to fruition our recent recruiting looks a lot better.

I’d back us to pick the eyes out of this years crop if we got a handful of picks in the first round

In the last decade we've tended to get the low picks right and the high picks wrong, mostly. Plus rookie and other special drafts.

It's a gamble based on how long we think it will take to be contending again, but it's also a bottom out strategy that many would argue is not required.

 

[mrposhman]

But naturally we wouldn’t accept 2 picks lower than 10

So which teams have the currency to satisfy us then and why would they trade for him? It seems a bit of a fantasy for you. You seem to think we will trade him for really high picks, but I don't think anyone has the currency, so when you look at the logical clubs that could go for him, you are looking at an accumulation of a lot of weaker picks.

 

[Carter]

So which teams have the currency to satisfy us then and why would they trade for him? It seems a bit of a fantasy for you. You seem to think we will trade him for really high picks, but I don't think anyone has the currency, so when you look at the logical clubs that could go for him, you are looking at an accumulation of a lot of weaker picks.

The chances of a trade are pretty slim. But Freo have their own first rounder and Collingwood’s. If they make finals they would be sorely tempted by a Bolton type for their flag run next year onwards. If anyone could cobble together the right draft capital it’s them. But like I said, the chances are slim. I just think a trade would be beneficial to both parties moving forward.

 

[Carter]

I would rather have Bolton than Jamarra and Hollands.

I’d hope we focused on rebuilding the midfield because the midfield put forward in the various list profiles I’ve seen today in this thread ain’t gonna win us flag 14.

 

[Carter]

In the last decade we've tended to get the low picks right and the high picks wrong, mostly. Plus rookie and other special drafts.

It's a gamble based on how long we think it will take to be contending again, but it's also a bottom out strategy that many would argue is not required.

Sure, that’s fair. I think our current list is on the precipice.

Lynch can’t get on the park, I think a banged up Vlastuin will retire within a couple of seasons, our best young player has had a horror run which might curtail his potential.

There are some good kids on the list but nowhere near enough to challenge again IMO.

If we aren’t creative at the trade / draft table then I think the climb back up the ladder will be very slow.

 

[mrposhman]

Sure, that’s fair. I think our current list is on the precipice.

Lynch can’t get on the park, I think a banged up Vlastuin will retire within a couple of seasons, our best young player has had a horror run which might curtail his potential.

There are some good kids on the list but nowhere near enough to challenge again IMO.

If we aren’t creative at the trade / draft table then I think the climb back up the ladder will be very slow.

I'm sure we are all hoping that you will be as wrong now as you were in 2016 and halfway through 2017.

 

[Streak]

Chapman - would be ok if he could get on the pack

I'd take a punt on him for sure. He is a Grimes clone, right down to the injury problems at the start of his career.

Rumour is he is gettable for a reasonable price too. Good insurance for us to cover Gibcus, but also could allow Balta to play more forward.

 

[Coburgtiger]

I’d hope we focused on rebuilding the midfield because the midfield put forward in the various list profiles I’ve seen today in this thread ain’t gonna win us flag 14.

I feel that you're intentionally missing the point.

If you want to be a contender, you need A graders.

You're right in that we need a player like Martin to win our premierships. But there is no player like Martin. Having 5 picks in the top 5 the year doesn't guarantee a player like Martin.

Though we already have a player that is about at close at you can get.

We could even project 8 years into the future. Look at the top 10 from 8 years ago.

1. Andrew McGrath
2. Tim Taranto
3. Hugh Mcclugage
4. Ben Ainsworth
5. Will Settersfield
6. Sam Petrevski-Seton
7. Jack Scrimshaw
8. Griffin Logue
9. Will Brodie
10. Jack Bowes

How many of these picks would we need to have to be helping us contend more than Bolton?

Taranto is probably the best of them, and we already have him, because trading is a thing.

(By the way, we took Bolton in this draft at 29).

Point is, you need a player like Bolton to be a genuine contender. A game changer. A player that can create momentum when there isn't any.

With experience, foresight, skill and a huge amount of luck, you may draft a player like Bolton. Or you might draft Andy McGrath.

Unless you are talking about a 8+ year rebuild.

And no thank you.

 

[mrposhman]

Remember its not also about the draft. We can also trade and look at free agency.

The one I'd be looking at as a FA for 2025 is LDU. Perfect type of player for us that we don't have, if North finish bottom 2 again, then you'd think he'd be gettable. He'd be wanting to see quicker improvement than that.

 

[Baron Samedi]

I feel that you're intentionally missing the point.

If you want to be a contender, you need A graders.

You're right in that we need a player like Martin to win our premierships. But there is no player like Martin. Having 5 picks in the top 5 the year doesn't guarantee a player like Martin.

Though we already have a player that is about at close at you can get.

We could even project 8 years into the future. Look at the top 10 from 8 years ago.

1. Andrew McGrath
2. Tim Taranto
3. Hugh Mcclugage
4. Ben Ainsworth
5. Will Settersfield
6. Sam Petrevski-Seton
7. Jack Scrimshaw
8. Griffin Logue
9. Will Brodie
10. Jack Bowes

How many of these picks would we need to have to be helping us contend more than Bolton?

Taranto is probably the best of them, and we already have him, because trading is a thing.

(By the way, we took Bolton in this draft at 29).

Point is, you need a player like Bolton to be a genuine contender. A game changer. A player that can create momentum when there isn't any.

With experience, foresight, skill and a huge amount of luck, you may draft a player like Bolton. Or you might draft Andy McGrath.

Unless you are talking about a 8+ year rebuild.

And no thank you.

nah I am not missing the point. you are making the art of recruiting sound like an impossible gamble and there is no evidence that our club is lacking in that department.

the point is that Bolton IS a game changer, but not even he can save us from ten goals down.

our on-field performance will get worse before it gets better. our list is in poor shape. it will take a few years to rise again.

what can Bolton do for us in that time aside from give fans a modicum of joy? it is in our best interests to attack the draft, rebuild the midfield, have a bunch of high picks coming through together.

bolton is wasted at our club for the next three years and simply saying it's "hard to draft good players" won't convince me otherwise.

our premiership teams were laced with high picks we got right - cotch, dusty, jack, prestia (trade), vlastuin, ellis and so on. our most recent crack at the first round yielded gibcus, who barring injury looks great.

no reason why an elite club can't get it right again. reading this thread you'd think our recruiters were completely incompetent