Pick 29: Shai Bolton

[Carter]

I am taking the factors you mention into account. You're a stuck record, I'm a stuck record back.

a) The list isn't in as bad a shape as you seem to be implying. Yes we need to rebuild, but we have a few good and promising young players on the list. If we didn't, you'd have a point.
b) We have a good draft hand this year, and probably next. If we didn't, you'd have a point.
c) There are other players with currency we can trade, they might not have as much currency as Shai sure, but good currency nonetheless, which is critical when combined with b). If we didn't, you'd have a point.
d) He's got 10 years left. Look at a player like Michael Walters, he's been in top 4 side, bottom 4 side, back to looking like contenders. The players love him, the fans love him. We could be vastly improved in 2,3, 5,6 years Shai will still be a champ.
e) The fans need reasons to buy tickets. The hope and entertainment Richo provided got me through 15 years of cellar dwelling.


In short, we do not NEED to trade Shai, (a,b and c) and there are compelling structural and cultural reasons why we shouldn't (d and e).

I get it, there is no misunderstanding here. We have different opinions on the list, that is all.

We won’t know the outcome of that disagreement for another few years yet. As a fan of the club I hope you’re right.

 

[Carter]

We can assess Hawthorn, sure. But not one person has posited we follow their model outside of King’s Mitch Lewis notion.

Bolton is just one player after all.

FWIW I think Hawthorn went too hard on the cull and simply haven’t recruited very well.

 

[tigersnake]

We have different opinions on the list, that is all.

We also disagree on the strength of our existing draft hand, and the currency of other trade possibilities.

We agree we're in rebuild mode, thats self evident, and we agree we have to trade a player or players with currency. We disagree on the need to trade our franchise player.

 

[tigersnake]

Bolton is just one player after all.

Not really. A franchise player and superstar is not just one player. Thats not to say he can never be traded, franchise players get traded on occasion, but lets be clear on what he is.

 

[Carter]

We also disagree on the strength of our existing draft hand, and the currency of other trade possibilities.

We agree we're in rebuild mode, thats self evident, and we agree we have to trade a player or players with currency. We disagree on the need to trade our franchise player.

Sounds about right.

 

[Carter]

Not really. A franchise player and superstar is not just one player. Thats not to say he can never be traded, franchise players get traded on occasion, but lets be clear on what he is.

A trade would shake the AFL landscape, no doubt.

If we got the equivalent of a Kennedy, pick 3 and pick 20 I’d consider the trade a success and exactly what we needed.

 

[MalenyTiger]

respectful conversation without trying to destroy each other . well done guys. The world needs more of this.

 

[tigersnake]

A trade would shake the AFL landscape, no doubt.

If we got the equivalent of a Kennedy, pick 3 and pick 20 I’d consider the trade a success and exactly what we needed.

Yes, but you want to shop him, I don't. Thats the key difference. If the club agreed with you, or he wanted to go home, he'd bring a motza. Thats not up for debate.

We're gunna end up with 3, maybe even 4 good picks and change this year regardless, which as good as you'd ever want in a single draft anyway.

Shai for Reid, that would make it interesting.

 

[Carter]

Shai for Reid, that would make it interesting.

I see this sentiment coming up a lot in the debate. The general idea seems to be that drafting in the first round is difficult and a mystery box to such a degree that clubs mostly get it wrong.

I get that but the club in question is Richmond. So it’s only logical we take a look at Richmond’s first round picks.

There have been some errors, no doubt. But they’ve mainly come at the end of the first round, lower than pick 20. These picks are clearly more speculative the lower you go. Dow, Coleman-Jones off the top of my head.

We’ve nailed picks in the 1-19 range for fifteen years.

Gibcus, Brown, Vlastuin, Higgins, Ellis, Cotchin, Martin.

Unlike many others I don’t doubt our accuracy at the top end. I think we can make high picks work.

 

[AngryAnt]

I am just referencing the proposal to trade one player in his prime for draft capital, nothing more. The rest of Hawthorn’s strategies and plans I am largely unfamiliar with.

Edit - I didn’t even read the article, just picked up on the basic concept of Kingy’s proposal re: Mitch Lewis.

Defensive? Aside from engaging in debate about the benefits of a Bolton trade even I think is unlikely to happen, I don’t know what you’re referring to. All good here.

No worries

 

[tigersnake]

I see this sentiment coming up a lot in the debate. The general idea seems to be that drafting in the first round is difficult and a mystery box to such a degree that clubs mostly get it wrong.

I get that but the club in question is Richmond. So it’s only logical we take a look at Richmond’s first round picks.

There have been some errors, no doubt. But they’ve mainly come at the end of the first round, lower than pick 20. These picks are clearly more speculative the lower you go. Dow, Coleman-Jones off the top of my head.

We’ve nailed picks in the 1-19 range for fifteen years.

Gibcus, Brown, Vlastuin, Higgins, Ellis, Cotchin, Martin.

Unlike many others I don’t doubt our accuracy at the top end. I think we can make high picks work.

This is a straw man. I've never said any of this. I've been saying, boring the *smile* out of people probably, that drafting is a numbers game for 15 years. High chance of an elite player with top 2, less chance 3-8, 30% 8-15 etc etc (those numbers are off the top of my head, point is, high chance of a gun with top 3 or 4, odds increase dramatically from then on.

So its a straw man. I haven't been saying this. My point for years is the odds are the odds. If you have pick 10 in your mitt you have a 30% chance of success, not much to do with who holds the pick, whether its Richmond or North or whoever.

So if we traded Shai for say, picks 2 and 6, for arguments sake. Pick 2 70% chance of 200 game player, pick 6 28% chance of a 200 gamer (200 gamer being a proxy for a star). So 100% chance of drafting one 200 gamer with both picks. Then would that player be as good as Shai? Big question. For me, why would you do it if you didn't have to? Answer is a no brainer.

Lottery tickets or close to a sure thing? What AFL draft picks are actually worth

Lottery tickets or close to a sure thing? What AFL draft picks are actually worth

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[Coburgtiger]

This is a straw man. I've never said any of this. I've been saying, boring the *smile* out of people probably, that drafting is a numbers game for 15 years. High chance of an elite player with top 2, less chance 3-8, 30% 8-15 etc etc (those numbers are off the top of my head, point is, high chance of a gun with top 3 or 4, odds increase dramatically from then on.

So its a straw man. I haven't been saying this. My point for years is the odds are the odds. If you have pick 10 in your mitt you have a 30% chance of success, not much to do with who holds the pick, whether its Richmond or North or whoever.

So if we traded Shai for say, picks 2 and 6, for arguments sake. Pick 2 70% chance of 200 game player, pick 6 28% chance of a 200 gamer (200 gamer being a proxy for a star). So 100% chance of drafting one 200 gamer with both picks. Then would that player be as good as Shai? Big question. For me, why would you do it if you didn't have to? Answer is a no brainer.

Lottery tickets or close to a sure thing? What AFL draft picks are actually worth

Lottery tickets or close to a sure thing? What AFL draft picks are actually worth

www.foxsports.com.au

Not to mention that there is very often just not a kid as good as Bolton in the top 10, regardless of how well you pick.

 

[AngryAnt]

I liked someone else's take on this earlier - paraphrasing "we should trade Bolton for a couple of draft picks who will probably be good long term players for us... Hey, we might get really lucky, one of them might even be as good as Bolton!!"

 

[tigersnake]

Not to mention that there is very often just not a kid as good as Bolton in the top 10, regardless of how well you pick.

Bloody oath. Hence my 'big question' point. Thats the bottom line, players like Shai are extremely hard to find regardless of what picks you have.

 

[Carter]

This is a straw man. I've never said any of this. I've been saying, boring the *smile* out of people probably, that drafting is a numbers game for 15 years. High chance of an elite player with top 2, less chance 3-8, 30% 8-15 etc etc (those numbers are off the top of my head, point is, high chance of a gun with top 3 or 4, odds increase dramatically from then on.

So its a straw man. I haven't been saying this. My point for years is the odds are the odds. If you have pick 10 in your mitt you have a 30% chance of success, not much to do with who holds the pick, whether its Richmond or North or whoever.

So if we traded Shai for say, picks 2 and 6, for arguments sake. Pick 2 70% chance of 200 game player, pick 6 28% chance of a 200 gamer (200 gamer being a proxy for a star). So 100% chance of drafting one 200 gamer with both picks. Then would that player be as good as Shai? Big question. For me, why would you do it if you didn't have to? Answer is a no brainer.

Lottery tickets or close to a sure thing? What AFL draft picks are actually worth

Lottery tickets or close to a sure thing? What AFL draft picks are actually worth

www.foxsports.com.au

It’s not a straw man, you said Bolton for Reid would be interesting.

Folks here are fond of saying drafting is difficult, even high in the draft.

But clubs are not equal for obvious reasons. Different needs, different recruiting staff, different philosophies.

Fact is our club has done well with high picks. So well, in fact, that we haven’t missed with any pick below 20 since 2010.

Not bad. Bloody good. But when it comes to the idea of trading Bolton, we are suddenly the club who can’t be trusted with high picks. We are the club who will look for Jarryd Oakley-Nicholls every time.

If you are speculating on the “Bolton for Reid” scenario then that is hyperbolic for two reasons. 1) we have a better recent record with high picks than that and 2) we are getting more than one first rounder for Bolton.

 

[Carter]

I liked someone else's take on this earlier - paraphrasing "we should trade Bolton for a couple of draft picks who will probably be good long term players for us... Hey, we might get really lucky, one of them might even be as good as Bolton!!"

This is omitting the entire argument around Bolton’s age and the probability he is not playing in our next premiership. It does not take into account the age profile required to challenge. It is therefore a simplistic notion.

The trade you should actually be describing is trading 26yo Bolton for a 18yo Bolton and another star player.

Where do I sign?

 

[tigersnake]

It’s not a straw man, you said Bolton for Reid would be interesting.

Folks here are fond of saying drafting is difficult, even high in the draft.

But clubs are not equal for obvious reasons. Different needs, different recruiting staff, different philosophies.

Fact is our club has done well with high picks. So well, in fact, that we haven’t missed with any pick below 20 since 2010.

Not bad. Bloody good. But when it comes to the idea of trading Bolton, we are suddenly the club who can’t be trusted with high picks. We are the club who will look for Jarryd Oakley-Nicholls every time.

If you are speculating on the “Bolton for Reid” scenario then that is hyperbolic for two reasons. 1) we have a better recent record with high picks than that and 2) we are getting more than one first rounder for Bolton.

I genuinely don't understand your point. Me saying Shai for Reid would be interesting is exactly that. It would be interesting, it would get my attention. Nothing to do with our drafting ability. Like I said, for me its a numbers game. Some might say we struggle with early picks, some might say we nail them, I'm skeptical of both those positions. for me, the numbers don't lie. Its all about the odds, the long term trend.

I think you're undervaluing Shai and overvaluing draft picks.

 

[Carter]

I genuinely don't understand your point. Me saying Shai for Reid would be interesting is exactly that. It would be interesting, it would get my attention. Nothing to do with our drafting ability. Like I said, for me its a numbers game. Some might say we struggle with early picks, some might say we nail them, I'm skeptical of both those positions. for me, the numbers don't lie. Its all about the odds, the long term trend.

I think you're undervaluing Shai and overvaluing draft picks.

if you aren’t denigrating our chances of nailing a top ten pick and a top twenty pick then all good!

I think we have a good record.

Edit - sorry mate yes, if it was HARLEY Reid not ZACH Reid I’m with you lol

 

[AngryAnt]

This is omitting the entire argument around Bolton’s age and the probability he is not playing in our next premiership. It does not take into account the age profile required to challenge. It is therefore a simplistic notion.

The trade you should actually be describing is trading 26yo Bolton for a 18yo Bolton and another star player.

Where do I sign?

Lighten up son

 

[Carter]

Ah *smile* sorry Snake I thought you were referring to Essendon’s Reid!

Ha ha