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Pick 29: Shai Bolton
- Thread starter puregreen
- Start date
The data says the probabilities of that happening are extremely low. A more likely scenario is say an 18yo Isaak Rankine (in other words a star, a similar type on paper, but not as good as Shai), and another OK player. Thats what the data says.
Another reason, but a related one, why I'm against trading Shai is that these trades never deliver real value. Going purely by the numbers, in draft picks only, Shai is worth pick 1 or 2, pick 4 or 5 and pick 8. But you wouldn't get that, you'd get pick 3, pick 12 and pick 18, which is very different, and the media would be trumpetting 'mega deal', 'Tigers massive draft haul from Shai trade' etc etc. Buts its not really.
All clubs miss with picks inside 20, including us, including since 2010. And we didn't have a top 20 pick in 2016 (But got Bolton with 29).
And there were other players in the top 20 that are no longer playing since then as well, and a hell of a lot in the top 20 that are not as good as Bolton. As you can see with the list below, yes with a pick inside 20 we have more often picked a good player, but just having a pick inside, or multiple picks inside 20 doesn't mean you are going to get players as good as Bolton. So trade Bolton for multiple top 20 picks (unless they are multiple top 5ish pick and I doubt you would get that) means that you may have a net gain, maybe break even, but more than likely you will have a net loss.
So overall in that timeframe
2010 - Pick 6, Reece Conca
2011 - Pick 15, Brandon Ellis
2012 - Pick 9, Nick Vlastuin
2013 - Pick 12, Ben Lennon
2014 - Pick 12, Corey Ellis
2015 - Pick 15, Dan Rioli
2016 - No Pick inside 20
2017 - Pick 17, Jack Higgins
2018 - No pick inside 20
2019 - No pick inside 20
2020 - No pick inside 20
2021 - Pick 09, Josh Gibcus, Pick 17, Tom Brown
2022 - No pick inside 20
2023 - No pick inside 20
You did say below pick 20 but CCJ was pick 20 in 17 and RCD pick 20 in 18 and Dow Pick 21 in 19
It's the same point you've made about 20 times already. You'll have to forgive some of us for resorting to humour to cope with the sheer repetitiveness of it all.
Again, it's irrelevant how good or bad our recruiters are. There is skill to recruiting, but picking up an 18 yo is always going to be a bit of a crapshoot.
As an aside, equalisation measures would work heaps better if we had a college system for AFL and drafted at 21 years old. But that's another story.
You've said before that we need another Cotchin/Martin to be competitive. There hasn't been another Martin available in the draft, at any pick, for 15 years (though Reid is certainly looking similar).
I love clever trading to accumulate a draft hand, or climb the order. There are also sometimes necessary sacrifices. But the draft is always speculative. You would only ever trade a player like Bolton if your hand was forced (like with Judd or Ablett or Dangerfield). You simply don't get the commensurate value unless you're very very lucky.
We don't need to nuke our competitiveness for the next 5 years by trading Bolton. We can have a couple of rolls on the roulette wheel without betting the farm.
I did stats at uni and I’m very much an expected values man.
Even if our top 10 recruiting performance in the last ten years above average do we still have the same team?
To carts point how many more years do we have of shai being a gun? His elite traits rely on speed and agility - he twists and turn out of positions that most mere mortals can’t escape from and has a crazy leap. Do we get this for 5 more years? At 35 can he be Hawkins like and still delivering a grade performance? Betts played 350 games - shai is at 118….. When would we contend next and can it coincide with shai still as an a grader?
If your answer to the above he is going to drop off in five years then the trade to me probably on balance of probabilities makes sense otherwise no way. The picks in the bush aren’t worth the gun in the hand.
Even if our top 10 recruiting performance in the last ten years above average do we still have the same team?
To carts point how many more years do we have of shai being a gun? His elite traits rely on speed and agility - he twists and turn out of positions that most mere mortals can’t escape from and has a crazy leap. Do we get this for 5 more years? At 35 can he be Hawkins like and still delivering a grade performance? Betts played 350 games - shai is at 118….. When would we contend next and can it coincide with shai still as an a grader?
If your answer to the above he is going to drop off in five years then the trade to me probably on balance of probabilities makes sense otherwise no way. The picks in the bush aren’t worth the gun in the hand.
And because Bolton is contracted on decent coin, any suitor would use that as leverage to give us less for him, or we’d wind up paying a large chunk of his salary while he’s playing for another club.
If your list is *smile* you want to get more draft picks and pay salary cap elsewhere so as to not creat future pay expectation issues.
No way. This only happens if a player is overpaid. He's on big coin 'cos he's worth big coin.
Forget picks.
Straight swap for JUH.
Solves our big issue up fwd.
Only way i'd be comfortable trading Bolton
Straight swap for JUH.
Solves our big issue up fwd.
Only way i'd be comfortable trading Bolton
You obviously don't bother watching any Richmond games irritated insect. Not only does the Nankster ruck for us, but he also regularly wins clearances and lays tackles on oppo mids as well. The most effective mid we've got by a long way.
You seem to have purposely forgotten that 2013 and 2014 existed, Not missed with any pick below 20 since 2010, you think Lennon and Corey Ellis were successful picks?
Yeah it’s not a perfect record, my bad.
We’ve done better in the first round, particularly in the last decade, than many make out.
Higgins, Prestia, Gibcus, Brown.
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Yeah see above, my mistake. Our overall first round record is still pretty good and certainly after the 2021 effort with two promising first round picks I’d be confident of using them well.
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I would say we are 5 from 7 under 20. If you include pick 20, then its 5 from 8. Not as *smile* hot as you are painting it.
There is also a massive difference as to where those 1st rounders are, we would clearly need as a minimum a top 5 pick and then probably a later 1st for a player of Shais quality and I don't see anyone that will end up with a top 5 pick being willing to trade it, so the whole discussion IMO is pretty much moot anyway. We wouldn't get anywhere near enough quality back for him, it then becomes a massive risk. Look at how many failures that there are every year between 11 and 20.
