The Key Questions

[The Big Richo]

I'm really struggling to form an opinion on how we are going to go this year.

Thought I'd have a go at listing the key questions in my mind that will determine our fate, feel free to add your own or answer mine.

1. Where will the pressure come from?

We've gone from a forward line with D Rioli, Castagna and Butler putting the wind up every opposition to having every egg in the MRJ basket. It's not really Bolton's bag, nor Dustin's so who will bring it? Can Cumberland, Cotchin?

2. What difference will clearances make?

We have been successful for a while now without being a first possession team. With Hopper and Taranto that should change to some extent, but will that be a plus or a minus for us? Can we use clearances as a weapon?

3. Can we get into a 'premiership' defence window?

History shows you need to be top 6 or better in key defence indicators to win the flag. Last year we were 7th in points against but a horrible 17th in scores against per inside 50, where will the improvement come from?

4. What will Dustin do?

If he plays largely forward can he kick 50 goals? Or can he give us the midfield presence we desperately need?

 

[Smoking Aces]

Last year we were the highest scoring team. No reason why that will change drastically.

Whilst we haven’t dominated clearances and won games it was also our weakness and reason why we lost so many close games. Also cast your mind back to our 2020 finals series especially the game against Port we dominated that stat. A big reason why we won.

Defence is a worry. We are very reliant on Tarrant and Grimes remaining fit.

I expect a bumpy start to the year as we work out how we best manage the guys Hopper and Tarranto replace in the midfield.

 

[richards42]

After Melbourne spanking us I have lowered my expectations a little. I have a feeling we will start off slow and work our way into the season.

 

[Redford]

I'm really struggling to form an opinion on how we are going to go this year.

Thought I'd have a go at listing the key questions in my mind that will determine our fate, feel free to add your own or answer mine.

1. Where will the pressure come from?

We've gone from a forward line with D Rioli, Castagna and Butler putting the wind up every opposition to having every egg in the MRJ basket. It's not really Bolton's bag, nor Dustin's so who will bring it? Can Cumberland, Cotchin?

2. What difference will clearances make?

We have been successful for a while now without being a first possession team. With Hopper and Taranto that should change to some extent, but will that be a plus or a minus for us? Can we use clearances as a weapon?

3. Can we get into a 'premiership' defence window?

History shows you need to be top 6 or better in key defence indicators to win the flag. Last year we were 7th in points against but a horrible 17th in scores against per inside 50, where will the improvement come from?

4. What will Dustin do?

If he plays largely forward can he kick 50 goals? Or can he give us the midfield presence we desperately need?

Of these, number 1) for me is the biggest question on your list.

We can all bang on about tactics, injuries, draws, other teams, this player and that player doing this and that etc etc but for me the team’s collective pressure and intensity is a massive factor if not the biggest.

A number of people have said - think you might be one of them - that you’ve questioned that the last couple of years. Does this group still have the hunger ? I know I have. It’s a bit simple to say, but the term “no pressure = no Richmond” is sort of true from my perspective. We don’t have the other tools, or level of them, that some other teams do, so we rely on extreme pressure. It masks some of our weaknesses. And I still think that our premiership winning pressure was like no other. That’s our 1 wood (geez I hate *** corny term). Anyway.

Last year, you could almost tell how we were gonna go in a game or a quarter by the level of pressure we were applying.

The others are all important questions too, especially the backline. You could throw the forward line group in as well and the way it rebounds so easily, but it’s more around the pressure factor again anyway where that’s concerned.

Personally, looking at the ladder predictions on here, I don’t have us ranked as high as most. Not to say we can’t finish top 4, we certainly can, but I have as many questions this year as I had last year ….and I had us finishing 7th last year.

 

[Leysy Days]

Good questions and thread. Was gunna start something similar.

Agree with Chumpford that pressure being the key indicator us.

To apply that over the ground you need the team balance along with the players at the right stage of their careers that are also fit.

For the large part we've been leaders in that (although somewhat in decline) that over the past 6 years.

But there are some question marks for Leysy whether some of our key personnel still have the body to transition run, stay fit and stay strong in the contest.

The question marks in no particular order:

Tarrant - Age/body
Nank - Undersized battering ram ruck for a number of years
Grimes - Faith in his body
Chimp - Can forward line work
Jack - Can he eek another year out
Hopper - He's a stoppage to stoppage player. Not yet 100% convinced that will work for us (will it negate the transition running/pressure we want).
Dusty - Can he still play that 50%+ game time through the middle that adds a lot to his forward game.
Prestia - Body (obviously)
Lynch - Can he come off no pre-season and dominate forward again

Sure we've had some youth come through along with an excellent recruit (Taranto), and not all the above are key players now.

But ILO we'll live or die by how the bodies of these Tiger champions (except Hopper) allow them to perform. Cos as a collective if it fails them we aint providing the pressure/run (or the quality of football) that will allow us to compete.

 

[deedee]

Pressure and pace, we need to find both.

 

[hutstar]

The elephant in the room is whether Dusty and Cotchin really add value at this point. As Richo notes, forward pressure is a huge issue. It's an issue because as great as it is having Dusty forward to add goals, is it worth as much as the pressure it takes off the opposition? Likewise with Cotchin, I think he'll try to be a pressure guy, but if he can't make that work, I'm not sure he's even best 22 any more.
OR we pick a couple of the younger guys who can chase, make the pressure work.
Dusty needs to be midfield fit, resting forward a bit, but not enough to get a man on him. Cotch, likewise I guess, though I really don't see him getting much midfield time. To me he's got to spend less time on ground, and make impact when he's on - or not play.

 

[tigerdell]

Surprised the negative views on Cotch in the side and playing midfield.
Lets remembe that last season he was our #2 mid and was terrific. It looks like now he'll be #6. When the whips are cracking he'll be there

 

[bairdy380]

Rucks will determine our fate this year… it’ll be hard yards if the rolls Royce midfield has to adapt and shark opposition taps all around the ground… you lose your structure straight up

 

[eZyT]

The elephant in the room is whether Dusty and Cotchin really add value at this point.

Is that one of those pygmy fairydust elephants?

 

[eZyT]

1. Where will the pressure come from?

Cotchin?

Where we will play home games?

MCG????

 

[ToraToraTora]

A flag would be a massive turn up, historically.
Aging champions. It happens to everyone. I know what the club is trying to do but I suspect 2-3 years of pain ahead, get our hands on some top picks, and we are ready to go again. The rebuild is in progress but incomplete.

 

[Ian4]

After Melbourne spanking us I have lowered my expectations a little. I have a feeling we will start off slow and work our way into the season.

I haven’t lowered my expectations. I am still thinking its premiership or bust. But I am genuinely concerned we are going into the season underdone with too many players not ready.

We all know the phrase “Premierships aren’t won in March.” That’s true, but they can definitely be lost. And we if end up 2-4 after 6 rounds, then it’s almost certainly lost.

 

[TigerPort]

1. Where will the pressure come from?

This is the main question for me and until I see it improve I am worried we will have a 2022 repeat

2. What difference will clearances make?

We were successful at the losing clearances because we attacked the next contest with extreme pressure. Having Hopper and Taranto will change how we operate and we should win more clearances as a result. This is a good thing for mine. EG the final against Brisbane, Neale has 15 clearances and we lose by 2 points. If we had of won more clearances would we have had a bigger lead??

3. Can we get into a 'premiership' defence window?

A lot of the problems the defense is having is the easy ball into the defensive 50. Again low pressure up the ground is helping the opposition. What did Melbourne do on the weekend? Kicked 6 goals from defensive inceptions

4. What will Dustin do?

Depends on his state of mind. Is he back with the hunger to dominate or more of just going through the motions??

 

[tigertime2]

For me it is very very simple. We have the cattle. Do we have the magic? Can we gel as a team and go all in team first, That chemistry we found in 2017. That is the HUGE question. our year will be determined in the mind of the players individually and collectively. The positive genuine energy to do it for each other regardless of the cost.
The Fear of loss or someone getting injured is a negative force.....roll the dice play to win. if people get injured so be it. make do, adapt..Believe!! someone will step up if our attitude is right....Townsend in 2017.

 

[graystar1]

For me after watching the practice game. is what is our game plan going to be.
if there was a plan in that game it escaped me.
In our premiership years we had the chaos plan, force the oppo into poor decisions and then capitalize on those mistakes.
We also had a good run and carry plan. Run, run and run the other side off their feet.
As for players here or there, who knows what injuries or what the selectors have in mind for various players.
Time will tell, and in the meantime all we mere mortals can do id speculate, just like TBR.

 

[lidss]

Last year we were the highest scoring team. No reason why that will change drastically.

Whilst we haven’t dominated clearances and won games it was also our weakness and reason why we lost so many close games. Also cast your mind back to our 2020 finals series especially the game against Port we dominated that stat. A big reason why we won.

Defence is a worry. We are very reliant on Tarrant and Grimes remaining fit.

I expect a bumpy start to the year as we work out how we best manage the guys Hopper and Tarranto replace in the midfield.

yep on the couch had the stat that we recorded the biggest clearance differential ever in a finals series in 2020.

 

[DuD_Delist]

Hunger & Lynch is my major concern.
We have about 15 Premiership players in the side.Most with at least 2 flags.Do they have the hunger to push that xtra 5%?
Lynch out with an injury at anytime will destroy us.

 

[The Big Richo]

Does this group still have the hunger ?

Last year was the first time since 2016 we have been below AFL average for pressure acts. We also had only a 1.5 differential from our opponents in pressure acts last year, in our premierships that was double figures.

I don't have access to our pressure rating numbers but I'm sure I heard they were in the bottom 2.

I think there's a combination of factors in it, hunger, fatigue from playing like that for a while and personnel. If you accept pressure is a given from defenders, it really needs to addressed in the front half and I'm not sure the mix we have now is going to change it all that much.

 

[tigerman]

I've got one key question.
Will we transition from the high pressure, lock it in forward line, or will look to play an extra tall. The stand rule make it more conducive to have another tall forward marking option.
My preference is to go with the extra tall, with Ryan to be given an opportunity.
If we decide to continue to with the high pressure, lock it in forward line, Mansell is my choice to partner Junior in that role.