The March to September - 2019

lamb22

Tiger Legend
Jan 29, 2005
10,691
135
Brisbane look pretty good to me. interesting two weeks coming up.

Ideal scenario Geelong beat Lions, we beat WC and Adelaide beat Pies.

That means in rd 23 a certainty that Geelong cannot move from first and we cannot miss top 4.

We can then rest Jack, Nank, Cotch etc, see what Balta, Marlion, Aarts, CCJ etc bring to the table, have gallant loss to Lions and meet Geelong in a qualifier at the G two weeks later . Delicious.

Bonus is we play on the Sunday too so will know the state of play.
 
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aoc1974

Tiger Rookie
Mar 1, 2015
337
242
Hope our players aren't sitting around crunching ladder predictions. ...apart from doing their heads in, I just want them concentrating on the only game they can impact this week...
West Coast Round 22!
 

tigerlove

Tiger Legend
Aug 9, 2014
11,181
397
We will know the exact chances of WC or Geelong coming 2nd because their games are the day before ours.
Again missed my point. Based on my round 22 scenario eventuating we wouldn't have to worry what happens in Round 23 at all. As long as we lost to Brisbane we would play Geelong at the MCG. No reliance on outcomes of other games in Round 23 and no reliance on us having to win for a more favourable outcome. My round 22 scenario probably won't eventuate anyway, it was a rhetorical look at my favoured outcome to allow us to take last round easy and a guaranteed first final against Geelong at tthe MCG.
 

Ian4

BIN MAN!
May 6, 2004
19,225
135
Melbourne
If we beat Brisbane then there's a big chance West Coast will finish top 2. Their percentages are quite close and WC play Hawks at home last game.
If both us and Brisbane win by 3 goals this week, and we beat Brisbane next week by 3 goals... West Coast would have to beat Hawthorn by about 100 points to overtake Brisbane. That is not gonna happen.

You sort of missed my initial point. The scenario I portrayed for Round 22 meant that we don't have to rely on outcomes in the last round to finish 4th and a guaranteed game against Geelong at the MCG and still able to rest players or play easier. The round 22 scenarios you portray doesn't guarantee anything, it keeps open all sorts of scenarios.
My scenario improves our chances of winning the flag. If we play Geelong or Brisbane in Brisbane in week 1, I believe we will win. West Coast finishing 3rd or 4th decreases their chance of winning the flag as they will have to win a final away from home to make the GF.
 

tigerlove

Tiger Legend
Aug 9, 2014
11,181
397
If both us and Brisbane win by 3 goals this week, and we beat Brisbane next week by 3 goals... West Coast would have to beat Hawthorn by about 100 points to overtake Brisbane. That is not gonna happen.
Actually that's a fair point I had in my mind the relative difference BEFORE Brisbane smacked Gold Coast. West Coast would have to win in final round by 50+ and Brisbane beat the Tigers by 50+. We could of course tank completely and allow Brisbane a 100+ point win but I don't think that would be a good strategy. I think we all agree, we need to smack West Coast.
 

Platinum member

Tiger Rookie
Nov 30, 2015
399
11
38
Reservoir
Actually that's a fair point I had in my mind the relative difference BEFORE Brisbane smacked Gold Coast. West Coast would have to win in final round by 50+ and Brisbane beat the Tigers by 50+. We could of course tank completely and allow Brisbane a 100+ point win but I don't think that would be a good strategy. I think we all agree, we need to smack West Coast.
We don’t need to smack them at all ... win by 2-3 goals will do.. Brisbane beat cats.. then we beat Brisbane next week.. we will be 4th cats 1st ... Lions 2nd Eagles 3rd..

We will probably play Brisbane in the GF.. perfect
 
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eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
10,369
649
I've had RFC v Bris GF pencilled in for weeks. They are on freakin fire. Will smash Geel. I think.
I think they are on premature fire.

I think they will beat Geelong too, then have a pretty brutal welcome to big boy month, population 3
 
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mad_tiggy911

Tiger Legend
Mar 30, 2009
5,996
48
Reckon we will massacre the Lions in rd23. Might be doing WCE a favour if that happens.
 
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tigerlove

Tiger Legend
Aug 9, 2014
11,181
397
We don’t need to smack them at all ... win by 2-3 goals will do.. Brisbane beat cats.. then we beat Brisbane next week.. we will be 4th cats 1st ... Lions 2nd Eagles 3rd..

We will probably play Brisbane in the GF.. perfect
OK we don't need to but I want us to. Let's not get too carried away though about playing grand finals. Next 2 games are very tough. If we win those we go in as hot favourites for sure but finals are a whole new ball game. For me West Coast are the biggest danger. Reigning premiers, few injuries, finals experienced.
 

Platinum member

Tiger Rookie
Nov 30, 2015
399
11
38
Reservoir
OK we don't need to but I want us to. Let's not get too carried away though about playing grand finals. Next 2 games are very tough. If we win those we go in as hot favourites for sure but finals are a whole new ball game. For me West Coast are the biggest danger. Reigning premiers, few injuries, finals experienced.
Was meaning if we belt them we’d go ahead of them...I’d rather stay 4th have Them third travelling to the Gabba week 1
 

DavidSSS

Tiger Matchwinner
Dec 11, 2017
910
122
Melbourne
Hnmm much rather finish 2nd
Yeah absolutely.

But we have to secure top 4 first and the next 2 games are really tough. Will show us where we are at.

The ladder looks pretty accurate at the moment: the top 4 are ahead of the rest and any of the top 4 can win. Don't write off Geelong, they are a real chance.

DS
 

Ian4

BIN MAN!
May 6, 2004
19,225
135
Melbourne
Hnmm much rather finish 2nd
Zero chance of that. how is it even possible? Brisbane and West Coast to lose both? West Coast won't lose next week. Even if we catch up with them percentage wise this week, we're unlikely to beat Brisbane by a bigger margin than the Eagles over Hawthorn next week. better to have Brisbane finish top 2 than West Coast. That’s why we need Brisbane to win this week IMO.
 
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TV Josh

Tiger Cub
May 26, 2005
142
27
Melbourne, VIC
Foxsports burning questions "Brisbane has played just one game against a top six side since Round 5 - that was the impressive away win over GWS in Round 16 ".

I think Geelong will belt them on Saturday and belt Carlton Light next week. Meaning we need to lose to the Eagles or the Lions for a week one "home" final. Could be some late outs with injury on Sunday? Give Prestia and Lynch a week off perhaps?
 

Ian4

BIN MAN!
May 6, 2004
19,225
135
Melbourne
I think Geelong will belt them on Saturday and belt Carlton Light next week. Meaning we need to lose to the Eagles or the Lions for a week one "home" final. Could be some late outs with injury on Sunday? Give Prestia and Lynch a week off perhaps?
che?