The March to September - 2019

TigerPort

Tiger Superstar
Jun 29, 2006
1,059
80
NSW
I think it is going to be quite hard for us to finish top 2 now, so we must hope we finish 4th and play Geelong!

Correct me if Im wrong someone, but basically if we win both our games, we would need Brisbane to beat Geelong this week and the Eagles to beat Hawks! This should have us finish 4th on %.

IF all the above happens, BUT Geelong beats Brisbane this week then we finish 3rd and play West Coast in Perth! :eek:
To finish 2nd we need Geelong to beat Brisbane. We need to beat Eagles by 31 points or more to get our % above theirs. We would be in 2nd as at end of round 22.

Then we need to beat Brisbane by more than Eagles beat Hawthorn (if in fact they do) in the last round.

If we do not beat the Eagles by 31 or more we then have to beat Brisbane by more than the Eagles beat Hawthorn.

The beauty is that by Sunday of Round 23 we will know exactly what is needed

And if Collingwood beat Adelaide and then flog Essendon by 52+ they jump into 4th and Brisbane fall to 5th
 

tigerlove

Tiger Legend
Aug 9, 2014
11,181
397
Crazy season. Depending on results next game, it could go into the last round with Essendon in 7th on 44 points and 6 other teams on 40 points (all except 1 with a higher percentage than Essendon). Personally though I am hoping Cats beat Lions, we beat Eagles, Adelaide beat Pies and we can then go into the last round against Lions with 4th guaranteed against Cats at the MCG if we lose to them and giving players who need it easier games to be in tip top shape for the first final. That's my ideal scenario as I don't really want us to have to go to Perth or Brisbane.
 

Al Bundy

Premiers 2017 ! Go Tiges in 2019 !
Aug 27, 2003
6,422
19
RFC
I am just rapt to see the Tiges being in the equation to have a chance at the flag. Compared to all those years ago before 2017 when just making the finals was a dream !

I truly hope, depending on how results fall, it comes down to us against the Lions to work out what benefits the club best. Either winning or losing the game to sStaying in Vic to play at the MCG. There is no guarantees but hoping for the best chance to continue to win.
 
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spook

It is only the intellectually lost who ever argue.
Jun 18, 2007
10,723
401
Top 2 is still a possibility. We are geared for these last two games. I think we will beat West Coast and slap Brisbane silly.
 
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Tigerfan

Roar Power
Apr 28, 2004
24,498
195
Gold Coast (SE - QLD).
It’s championship time
The AFL team are 4th and VFL are 1st.

2 weeks coming up that are almost a pre-finals fortnight.

R21 - WCE (3rd)
R22 - Bris (2nd)
Week off
QF. -
SF -
PF -
GF -
 

Tigaman

Tiger Champion
May 23, 2010
2,555
14
Laff and Diggler. No-one turns up at the caravan park in September these days.

I was on a overseas cruise holidays first three weeks September 2017 & end result Glory Glory Hallelujah. Almost same format this year so is it an omen that will lead to 2019 Tiger glory Glory Hallelujah.
 
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antman

Tiger Legend
Nov 25, 2004
16,242
441
Bali/Jakarta
Crazy season. Depending on results next game, it could go into the last round with Essendon in 7th on 44 points and 6 other teams on 40 points (all except 1 with a higher percentage than Essendon). Personally though I am hoping Cats beat Lions, we beat Eagles, Adelaide beat Pies and we can then go into the last round against Lions with 4th guaranteed against Cats at the MCG if we lose to them and giving players who need it easier games to be in tip top shape for the first final. That's my ideal scenario as I don't really want us to have to go to Perth or Brisbane.
Yeah. Essendon won't want to make finals, would be even more embarrassing than last time.

I'd like Cats to beat Lions but don't think they will. I really don't want to tank the last game as that's messing with form, but maybe we might need to to avoid a trip to Perth. I'd prefer to go to the Gabba than Perth.
 

YinnarTiger

Opening goal, 23 Sept 2017
May 2, 2007
6,744
39
70
Gippsland
I’m doing a mini research report into winning a GF.

Teams have travelled interstate for a final since 2009.

61 finals.

Travelling team has won 5 times.
Home team has won 56 times.

In 4 out of those 5 times the away team has won the premiership.

2 of those win were in the same year by the same club: Western Bulldogs 2016.

2018 GF - WCE d Coll
2016 - EF WBD d GWS
PF WBD d WCE
2015. SF Nth d Syd
2012, GF Sydney d Hawks

And in the last 20 years the premier has finished either 1,2, or 3, except once (western bulldogs 2016).

In 2016 the western bulldogs finished 7th and won two interstate finals. However they were the home team in the GF opposed to an interstate opponent. That occurrence was statistically ridiculous and the outcome has not occurred twice and therefore should be treated as an outlier and removed.

If a team plays an interstate final then they are less likely to win but if they do win they are more likely to win the premiership. Especially if it’s on GF day.

Furthermore if that team finished 1, 2 or 3 they are much more likely to win the premiership.

So your chances of winning the premiership are much higher if you finish 1, 2, or 3 and play finals at home against teams from interstate.

This isn’t groundbreaking information and it’s not evaluated all variables but it’s good to see the cases that lead to the conclusions.
I don't think the 2016 result should be treated as an outlier. It was one year out of only 18 under that finals system, so a 6% chance.

The earliest interstate final I could find was 1986. From then until 2008 the visiting side won about 42 out of 112 finals (including grand finals) so a little bit better for them than the last 10 years you researched. 9 of the visiting teams won grand finals.
 
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Tigerfan

Roar Power
Apr 28, 2004
24,498
195
Gold Coast (SE - QLD).
I don't think the 2016 result should be treated as an outlier. It was one year out of only 18 under that finals system, so a 6% chance.

The earliest interstate final I could find was 1986. From then until 2008 the visiting side won about 42 out of 112 finals (including grand finals) so a little bit better for them than the last 10 years you researched. 9 of the visiting teams won grand finals.
I just believe ten years gives a good snap shot of relevancy. If you go back beyond that time you end up looking at many different variables you need to explain. Especially for a fan forum.
 
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Tigerfan

Roar Power
Apr 28, 2004
24,498
195
Gold Coast (SE - QLD).
Seems the simplest path to 2nd place is

Geel beats Bris by say 20 pts
RIch defeat WCE by 30

We then have to beat Bris by around the same margin that WCE beat hawks (if).

But I’m just not sure whether Geelong can defeat Brisbane Lions.
 

blx

Tiger Champion
Feb 11, 2004
4,052
164
Melbourne
I would love nothing more than going to Perth and spanking WCE on their own dunghill!!!
 
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Ian4

BIN MAN!
May 6, 2004
19,225
135
Melbourne
Really miss their hilarious input since 2017.......
yeah me too. and Claw.

Crazy season. Depending on results next game, it could go into the last round with Essendon in 7th on 44 points and 6 other teams on 40 points (all except 1 with a higher percentage than Essendon). Personally though I am hoping Cats beat Lions, we beat Eagles, Adelaide beat Pies and we can then go into the last round against Lions with 4th guaranteed against Cats at the MCG if we lose to them and giving players who need it easier games to be in tip top shape for the first final. That's my ideal scenario as I don't really want us to have to go to Perth or Brisbane.
Its crazy in terms of 11 wins and a good percentage might be enough for 8th when most years you need 13.

But i disagree re lions v Cats. I would rather Brisbane finish second over the eagles and that will happen if we beat the Eagles, Brisbane beat the Cats and Geelong beat Carlton in R23.
 

tigerlove

Tiger Legend
Aug 9, 2014
11,181
397
But i disagree re lions v Cats. I would rather Brisbane finish second over the eagles and that will happen if we beat the Eagles, Brisbane beat the Cats and Geelong beat Carlton in R23.
The above would mean Brisbane end up on top of the ladder (assuming we then threw our game against them in Rd 23) and we'd have to play in Brisbane. I'd prefer to play Geelong at the MCG. Brisbane have been very impressive, now 8 wins on the trot. Geelong have been average and in the same period have lost to Port, Bulldogs, Hawks and Dockers.
 

Ian4

BIN MAN!
May 6, 2004
19,225
135
Melbourne
The above would mean Brisbane end up on top of the ladder (assuming we then threw our game against them in Rd 23) and we'd have to play in Brisbane. I'd prefer to play Geelong at the MCG. Brisbane have been very impressive, now 8 wins on the trot. Geelong have been average and in the same period have lost to Port, Bulldogs, Hawks and Dockers.
I never said I wanted to lose to Brisbane in R23. To me, there is no defference between playing an inexperienced Brisbane away or Geelong at the G in week 1 (apart from finding a way to get up to Brisvegas). Our best chance of winning the flag is West Coast not making the top 2. They are by far the biggest danger.
 
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tigerlove

Tiger Legend
Aug 9, 2014
11,181
397
I never said I wanted to lose to Brisbane in R23. To me, there is no defference between playing an inexperienced Brisbane away or Geelong at the G in week 1 (apart from finding a way to get up to Brisvegas). Our best chance of winning the flag is West Coast not making the top 2. They are by far the biggest danger.
If we beat Brisbane then there's a big chance West Coast will finish top 2. Their percentages are quite close and WC play Hawks at home last game. You sort of missed my initial point. The scenario I portrayed for Round 22 meant that we don't have to rely on outcomes in the last round to finish 4th and a guaranteed game against Geelong at the MCG and still able to rest players or play easier. The round 22 scenarios you portray doesn't guarantee anything, it keeps open all sorts of scenarios.