Thoroughbred racing

[Tiger44]

Happy to gamble on the 3yo with the weight relief (Anamoe) - the main concern is that C Williams can try to be too cute and where he gets to in the run. Got $5 each way earlier in the week.

Hasn't the NSW race The Everest stuffed the Manikato Stakes tonight - basically G3 quality for a G1 race - Racing Australia really needs to sort out the calendar so these clashes are avoided when possible. Typical V'Landys just doing as he pleases and stuff the rest of you!

 

[Leysy Days]

Im backing Mo'ungo in The Plate EW tomo at luxury odds.

why?

1. took lengths off and almost beat Incentivise in the final 400m in the Maybe Diva, Kicked on and beat the late Sir Dragonet (who was tracking beautifully for the plate).

I think that the best form in the world right now.

2. Racing pattern is mid-field (rail, or wide, doesnt matter), and sustains a long run from 800m, which is required to win the Cox Plate. Doesnt have a brilliant sprint, but builds and sustains. Cox Plate.

3. drawn and ridden well.

4. doesnt have the risk profile of Zaaki or Verry Ellegant (form), or Probabeel (wet)

5. Incentivise formline surely the superior middle distance formline (see 1)

6. Tough. keeps coming, likes to win.

7. see Rosehill guineas win - 2000m, soft track.

8. $12/$4

Nice one ET.

As we know Leysy is all in on Zaaki as final leg of futures bets with a clear best result.

Also jumped into Mo'ungo at $21 earlier in the week for the reasons you outlined. Can see him sneaking up along the rail around the final bend and being in the finish.

 

[Leysy Days]

Also have a rolled gold special at the Valley tonight to bankroll the weekend's punting tonight.

Is short - $1.90 (should be $1.50) but will lead on it's ear with the gun front running Linda Meech aboard (2 win totaling 12 lengths on this horse) and win by panels.

Launch straight out like Leysy has or if taking any multi's simply use this as an anchor.

Race 2 - Thought of That.

 

[scottyturnerscurse]

Im backing Mo'ungo in The Plate EW tomo at luxury odds.

why?

1. took lengths off and almost beat Incentivise in the final 400m in the Maybe Diva, Kicked on and beat the late Sir Dragonet (who was tracking beautifully for the plate).

I think that the best form in the world right now.

2. Racing pattern is mid-field (rail, or wide, doesnt matter), and sustains a long run from 800m, which is required to win the Cox Plate. Doesnt have a brilliant sprint, but builds and sustains. Cox Plate.

3. drawn and ridden well.

4. doesnt have the risk profile of Zaaki or Verry Ellegant (form), or Probabeel (wet)

5. Incentivise formline surely the superior middle distance formline (see 1)

6. Tough. keeps coming, likes to win.

7. see Rosehill guineas win - 2000m, soft track.

8. $12/$4

Decent value and you make a good case.

 

[Ridley]

Im backing Mo'ungo in The Plate EW tomo at luxury odds.

why?

1. took lengths off and almost beat Incentivise in the final 400m in the Maybe Diva, Kicked on and beat the late Sir Dragonet (who was tracking beautifully for the plate).

I think that the best form in the world right now.

2. Racing pattern is mid-field (rail, or wide, doesnt matter), and sustains a long run from 800m, which is required to win the Cox Plate. Doesnt have a brilliant sprint, but builds and sustains. Cox Plate.

3. drawn and ridden well.

4. doesnt have the risk profile of Zaaki or Verry Ellegant (form), or Probabeel (wet)

5. Incentivise formline surely the superior middle distance formline (see 1)

6. Tough. keeps coming, likes to win.

7. see Rosehill guineas win - 2000m, soft track.

8. $12/$4

I really don't like anything in the Cox Plate; you can make very strong cases against most runners and I find very few strong cases for any runners. Does Zaaki go as well the Melbourne way? I'd suggest not and he is miles under the odds in my opinion. His best is likely the best of any runner but don't think he is near his best. Verry Eleegant beat a C grade field 2 starts back in Sydney and ran poorly in the Turnbull; big question marks. I like Mo'unga but is he good enough to win a Cox Plate? Yes the Incentivise form is the clear yardstick but 1600mm is well below his optimum distance. I also think it is Mo's optimum distance and that he is suspect at 2000m. I know he won the Rosehill Guineas but it was his own age group and the form out of that race is a bit suspect. He's some chance but more a place than win I think. Even though Probabeel won at 2000m last start that was a funny race in a 5 horse field (they generally are) and I still think 2000m is beyond her ideal range of 1400-1600m. Plus the prospect of rain does not help her (weird as Kiwis are usually mudlarks). Really not sure how you line up the internationals; Gold Trip has one win in 10 starts.

I think Anamoe probably has most in his favour. But is 2000m an issue? The Guineas win would suggest not but was that his Grand Final? And he is $4 against Captivant who is $19. There was a half length between them in the Guineas. And Captivant has improved with each run as he has stepped up in distance; 2000m looks right up his alley.

Yep; so without much confidence I think I'll be on Captivant e/w. Maybe just have a bit on Mo as well because I'd spew if he won and I wasn't on.

 

[Ridley]

Just saw Gold Trip is out of the Cox Plate.

 

[spook]

Had one bet tonight and Jonker saluted ($7.80 betfair).

With all the rain tonight and more tomorrow. Verry Elleegant should get her preferred Soft track. I've boosted to $6.50. Also something on Mo'unga at 11 and Captivant 18.

Randwick r5 Emerald Kingdom, and a spec Kinloch at 12 in r10.

 

[22nd Man]

Happy to gamble on the 3yo with the weight relief (Anamoe) - the main concern is that C Williams can try to be too cute and where he gets to in the run. Got $5 each way earlier in the week.

Hasn't the NSW race The Everest stuffed the Manikato Stakes tonight - basically G3 quality for a G1 race - Racing Australia really needs to sort out the calendar so these clashes are avoided when possible. Typical V'Landys just doing as he pleases and stuff the rest of you!

As they reminded me on racing.com, Manikato,used to be first G1 of Spring. Maybe move it back.

 

[22nd Man]

Zaaki out. That's racing. Shame as will be 8 next year, history doesn't bode well for his chances then.
I still think VE has to be a solid chance. "Best" horse since Winx.

 

[eZyT]

WTF is Zaaki out?

@Leysy Days isnt gonna be happy

 

[22nd Man]

Had one bet tonight and Jonker saluted ($7.80 betfair).

With all the rain tonight and more tomorrow. Verry Elleegant should get her preferred Soft track. I've boosted to $6.50. Also something on Mo'unga at 11 and Captivant 18.

Randwick r5 Emerald Kingdom, and a spec Kinloch at 12 in r10.

Jonker for me too.. Plus Wicklow Town. Mate of mine spruiked get his big multi for the weekend that had so Si Bon as number 1 leg... ..

 

[22nd Man]

WTF is Zaaki out?

@Leysy Days isnt gonna be happy

High temp.

 

[eZyT]

question: they've deducted 28% from prices with Zaaki Scratching (which part of the 'Fixed' dont they get?),

if there was another scratching, leaving 7 runners and only 2 place divs,

would they add 33% to the fixed place divs?

somehow, I doubt it

 

[Jake]

question: they've deducted 28% from prices with Zaaki Scratching (which part of the 'Fixed' dont they get?),

if there was another scratching, leaving 7 runners and only 2 place divs,

would they add 33% to the fixed place divs?

somehow, I doubt it

So if you backed Mo yesterday fixed at $11.50, it will be 28% less after the scatching today?

 

[eZyT]

So if you backed Mo yesterday fixed at $11.50, it will be 28% less after the scatching today?

yep, its a fixed price, until its not.

 

[Leysy Days]

Nooooooooooo

 

[eZyT]

Nooooooooooo

they pay you out on the successful legs Leysy,

just cash them in and plonk it on Incentivise in The Cup

Zaaki clearly wasn't gonna win. was obviously coming down with something last start.

just hope he hasn't given it to Mo’unga

 

[Redford]

KFC is classed as a restaurant and still delivering Red.

Bet you order the junior meals….

 

[eZyT]

Also have a rolled gold special at the Valley tonight to bankroll the weekend's punting tonight.

Is short - $1.90 (should be $1.50) but will lead on it's ear with the gun front running Linda Meech aboard (2 win totaling 12 lengths on this horse) and win by panels.

Launch straight out like Leysy has or if taking any multi's simply use this as an anchor.

Race 2 - Thought of That.

well done leysey. was $1.45 when I saw your post

 

[royce67]

yep, its a fixed price, until its

Only truly fixed odds if you bet All In. i.e. no refunds for scratchings like Cup doubles.