U.S Presidential Election | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
  • IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.

U.S Presidential Election

Baloo said:
America is broken
Click to expand...

"Western" politics is broken. Abbott, Dutton, Hanson, Boris Johnson, Jeremy Corbyn, Nigel Farage, Marine Le Pen, Trump, Clinton, Biden. These are the calibre of people that are bubbling to the top of their respective political systems. The systems are broken.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
What has happened in politics is quite interesting.

From early in the 20th century until around 1980 politics was more class based. The poor voted for left/labour parties and the wealthy voted for the right/conservative parties.

In the USA this is a bit more complicated because of race. Up until the early 1960s blacks in the South would mainly vote Republican but this turned around remarkably quickly with the Civil Rights Movement and Democrat support for civil rights.

Since 1980 what has tended to happen is that the wealthy still vote right/conservative but the big shift has been the highly educated now vote more left/labour (used to be the other way around). The poor are voting for parties who have not been the major parties or populist and/or nationalist parties; but the other big factor is that the poor are not voting as much, their rate of voting has fallen.

Now, Australia is interesting because of compulsory voting. The same shifts have happened but with compulsory voting the poor still vote. There has been a drift to populist and/or nationalist parties and there has been a drop in the primary vote of the major parties but compulsory voting, along with preferential voting, means slight differences here.

In the Presidential election the reality is that the winner will be the candidate who can get their vote out in the swing states. This is crucial and will decide the election.

DS
 
Can someone who knows the American system enlighten me about voter registration. Seems to be mentioned in a lot of news reports. Here we get on the electoral at first election after we turn 18 and with a few exceptions we stay there until we die. Over there?
 
Voter registration?

Not particularly well versed on this in the USA but it does depend on which state you live in.

Always remember, the USA is a union of states not a federation.

What this means in practice is that the states have a lot of say over a lot of things - including how voters register and how the vote takes place.

So, in some states it would be relatively easy to register to vote. In other states they make it much harder and ask for ID when you vote. Also some states go out of their way to remove voters from the electoral roll, generally they will do this more vigorously for poor and black voters. You also get states who will, for example, have 10 polling booths for 10,000 people in one area, and 1 polling booth for 10,000 voters in another area. If you want to stand for President you are not guaranteed to be on the ballot paper in every state, it depends on the state laws about this. There have been many elections where candidates have been on the ballot in some states and not others. The way you vote is different in different states - in some states (such as Florida - remember the hanging chads, that was only in one county) the ballot is different in different counties. Some states/counties might have voting machines (pull a lever, push out a chad etc) and others have a paper ballot which you fill out.

The President is also indirectly elected, see last night's Planet America for a reasonable explanation of this.

It is often asked why the USA has no Federal Electoral Commission like most countries. The answer is that a Federal Electoral Commission makes no sense in the US model. The states decide how voting, registration, nominating, appearing on the ballot etc happen. You can't have the same rules for the whole country as the election is far more state based.

So, voter registration? Can't give one answer because it is such a convoluted and messy system which differs from state to state. In fact, until the voting rights act in the 1960s many Southern states would use various nefarious means to prevent blacks from registering, and that act has been undermined over the years.

Sorry I can't be clearer, I really don't know the details but the above is what I do know.

DS
 
Has this been posted? Devastating, heart-breaking, accurate summation of the terminal decline of the US:

www.rollingstone.com

The Unraveling of America

Anthropologist Wade Davis writes about Covid-19 and its devastating impact on the international standing of the United States.
www.rollingstone.com www.rollingstone.com
 
spook said:
Has this been posted? Devastating, heart-breaking, accurate summation of the terminal decline of the US:

www.rollingstone.com

The Unraveling of America

Anthropologist Wade Davis writes about Covid-19 and its devastating impact on the international standing of the United States.
www.rollingstone.com www.rollingstone.com
Click to expand...

I think it has, good article though.

One term presidents are the exception in US politics, Bush Senior, Jimmy Carter are the only examples in recent memory. You really have to stink it up big time to not get to two terms as a US President, except Trump's margins were wafer thin in many states that he carried, so in theory won't take much to swing it the other way. 538 still has it at around a 30/70 split Biden's way. I reckon it will tighten up further though. it's not a guaranteed Biden win by any means.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

2020 Election Forecast

Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
Great article. Reinforces a point many miss, Trump is a product of the American malaise, not the cause. Yes he doesn't help it but the issues have been emerging and building for decades. Equally, another President, regardless of party, age, gender or race isn't going to turn the ship around in one term or even a decade.
That the 21st century is or will be the Asian century has been forecast since last century. The danger now is that Asia is this context is increasingly one nation, not the continent.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 2 users
The more worrying aspect of the US, for me, isn't Trump per se, it's the fact the Republican party has let him do and say what he wants. The whole party is corrupted but due to their big business sponsors, they're looking like still holding onto the senate.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
Agree the Dems are just as bad, but didn't Trump invent "Space Force" and increase military spending by 2tn?
 
jb03 said:
Excuse my ignorance but why is the mail voting so favourable to the Democrats?
Click to expand...

There wouldn't be an exact correlation but there are a few factors.

Firstly, you have to remember, voting is on a Tuesday, yeah, I know, WTF?

There has always been talk of extra overtime and extra shifts for casuals on election day in the USA, makes it hard to vote in person and mainly affects the less well off and "minorities" as they call them in the USA.

Less polling booths in black areas, blacks vote more for the Democrats since the 1960s. Longer wait times mean discouraged from voting, mail voting gives you an alternative.

That's a couple of reasons I can think of. The other one is that the observation is that the higher the voter turnout the better the Democrats perform. Allowing mail voting means better chance for a higher turnout. The voter turnout will largely determine the result. Turnout has been around 50% for a while.

DS
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 users
The smartest bloke in the room, not looking too smart today. Did he think Bob Woodward wouldn't release the tapes? Still, I won’t be surprised if he's reelected. ... it is America after all.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
< What to do about the conspiracy theory problem? | Anzac Day !! >
Official PRE merch now on Redbubble!
Top Bottom