U.S Presidential Election | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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U.S Presidential Election

"Modelling" is a reflection of the modellers biases.
I didn't think the ABC were 'modelling' outcomes, they're just giving away California and a couple of other states to the Dems that are obvious (ie have been Democrat for decades if not centuries), not calling any that will be in doubt.
 
"Modelling" is a reflection of the modellers biases.


I know too well that modelling is an imprecise science.

but im honestly a bit confounded by the concept of "modelling"

I thought maybe it was a Elle Macpherson look-a-like?
 
These absentee ballots are having a big difference on current counted numbers. Lots are counting late, so unlikely to get a definitive answer today in many states.
 
here comes Joe with a rails run!

into $2.7

im getting more on.

Murdoch can get *smile*. I'll take his money.
 
Keeping an eye on politico.com as it seems to be the most non-partisan site I can find. There is no sign on there, either numbers or commentary that explains the betting odds swing.

The only thing I can think of is Florida's latin vote didn't go as expected so they are modeling that in other latin heavy areas.

bookies brain fades

are opportunities to profit.

this market is one of the strangest things ive ever seen.

a 2 horse race, and the horse in front halfway through is $4.50?
 
here comes Joe with a rails run!

into $2.7

im getting more on.

Murdoch can get *smile*. I'll take his money.

As just mentioned above, I think the absentee votes being counted late that are swaying peoples thoughts.

For example, IanG mentioned above about Wisconsin, that trumps is "winning", yet the absentees are coming late, something like 55-60% of votes were absentee of which something like 58% were for Biden. This is mirrored in a lot of states.
 
I didn't think the ABC were 'modelling' outcomes, they're just giving away California and a couple of other states to the Dems that are obvious (ie have been Democrat for decades if not centuries), not calling any that will be in doubt.
Then why did they say their numbers are based on their "modelling" then?
Why not just report the results as they come in?
 
This could well end up even tighter than the Bush Jnr Vs Gore election, if that's possible.

Such an outcome is a recipe for absolute chaos in the courts and on the streets. Looks like that investment in plywood sheeting by business owners could well come in handy.
 
This could well end up even tighter than the Bush Jnr Vs Gore election, if that's possible.

Such an outcome is a recipe for absolute chaos in the courts and on the streets. Looks like that investment in plywood sheeting by business owners could well come in handy.

Especially being as this could take days to actually get a result.
 
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Id welcome some sophistication also.

perhaps the human species is devolving?

regressing to cavemen, cavewomen and non-binary cavethems?
Perhaps people aren't willing to devote the effort required to gain deeper understanding of complex issues? And when you have loud mouths like Jones/Bolt etc many just accept that these guys have done the research for them?

Its funny, kids go through primary & high school mostly taught by left leaning individuals. They don't appear to have much long term influence on their political bias.

Maybe it is just the Murdoch influence?
 
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US is completely *smile*, can't claim to be a world leader.
yes , no matter which way it goes the votes themselves doesn't make one view right or wrong anymore than they did 4 years ago. If Trump wins it won't change my view of him or the US, all it will do it make me even more despairing about what the future holds for that country and all that it influences.
I have no idea why anyone would vote for Trump but they do.
 
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Perhaps people aren't willing to devote the effort required to gain deeper understanding of complex issues? And when you have loud mouths like Jones/Bolt etc many just accept that these guys have done the research for them?

Its funny, kids go through primary & high school mostly taught by left leaning individuals. They don't appear to have much long term influence on their political bias.

Maybe it is just the Murdoch influence?
I certainly experienced that as a student. And it was counterproductive. I tended to rebel against the grievance politics being rammed down my throat. Not in a dumb Trump, Hanson kind of way. I tended to be a bit of a bookworm on history, politics, international affairs etc. So it was from a considered stand point. I simply didn't agree with the teacher's viewpoint. And made no secret of it in essays and even had a couple of stand up arguments with one particularly smug, condescending quite left leaning English and humanities teacher.

I've moderated over time. On economics I'm pretty centre (centre left on some issues - centre to centre right on others). Social and issues to do with national security, I tend to be a bit right of centre (but not in a Hanson/Trump kind of way. More closely resembling the DLP form of conservatism, but I'm more moderate on certain key social issues that they take a very dogmatic stance on). And environmentally I tend to sway centre left.

Hence I have no real political home.
 
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Perhaps people aren't willing to devote the effort required to gain deeper understanding of complex issues? And when you have loud mouths like Jones/Bolt etc many just accept that these guys have done the research for them?

Its funny, kids go through primary & high school mostly taught by left leaning individuals. They don't appear to have much long term influence on their political bias.

Maybe it is just the Murdoch influence?

I think that as the world population grows, and competition for food and money intensifies, people get meaner.

I do it. Our long term go-to idyllic family camp spot on the beach down near Coffs Harbour is overrun with gold coasters with all the toys.

as competition for shady spots under a pandanus intensifies, my hatred for 'them' grows, and my morals decline (we'll leave the Yaegal people out of this one)

'They' are different to me. 'I' was here first (I wasn't). I'm right, they are wrong and truth plays no part

To me, this is a microcosm of the world.

more people, less resources, people revert to individualism,

like a bunch of non-binary cave-thems.

* we need to do everything in our power, every day, to actively reverse this phenomenon in Australia. Reconcile with our past, be kind with our present, and intelligent with our future.
 
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"And here comes JOE!!!!"

JB $2.2
DT $1.65

the most volatile market ive ever seen
 
Amazingly they are pointing out Trump has increased his vote amongst groups you would expect him to have decreased ihis vote in

White women
Latinos
Black men

Apparently this is based on exit polling.