-
IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
U.S Presidential Election
- Thread starter Chiang Mai Tiger
- Start date
trump at Winx odds now
$1.12
to Bidens $4.50
Jesus H christ.
I just cant see what this is based on. Sky News has 130 seats Biden to 110 Trump. ABC have it 210 Biden 110 Trump.
The odds, which SKY are running as a banner continuously, make no sense.
Is it Murdoch putting pocket change say $10m on trump
to distort the market?
why dont we back Biden?
$1.12
to Bidens $4.50
Jesus H christ.
I just cant see what this is based on. Sky News has 130 seats Biden to 110 Trump. ABC have it 210 Biden 110 Trump.
The odds, which SKY are running as a banner continuously, make no sense.
Is it Murdoch putting pocket change say $10m on trump
to distort the market?
why dont we back Biden?
BBC haven't called many, they are at 94 Biden, 72 Trump.
Thats an odds on bet now at $1.12.
Someone knows something that the results don't show yet.
But most of those votes are the States that we pretty much knew were going to the respective candidates. It's the marginal States where the latest count is turning in Trump's favour.
Ohio and Michigan were thought of as a high likelihood of Biden gaining. But looking at some figures CNN just posted, they now are leaning towards Trump retaining those two.
It will be a knife's edge, but bloody hell, things are starting to go against the Biden camp. I tipped it as marginal Biden winning in a very tight contest. I may well be proven incorrect.
agree, its looking knifes edge.
But $1.10 to $4.50 suggests its Richmond Verses North Melbourne and Richmond are 40 points up at 3/4 time.
It makes zero sense.
I think thats the point, it WAS looking knife edge. Not sure thats the case now. Trump starting to pull away in the states that were expected to be close. Florida he has basically won, Ohio he is ahead, Pennsylvania looking better, Michigan looking like they've had a further swing to Trump rather than a swing back to dems (they won by 10,500 votes in 2016).
Seems like the popular vote is growing for Biden but not showing in the electoral college system. Just on the popular vote, there will be a swing to Biden in Texas which will increase popular votes but has zero effect on electoral college.
what is "modelling"?
I just backed Biden at $4.5
I'm betting against Murdoch.
Now thats "punting"
Its the "calling" of states that is done by media only.
BBC currently showing Biden leading 98 to 89
Sky showing Biden leading by 129 to 109
None of it is science its just how aggressive each media source is.
Its hard to gauge halfway through. Just heard that they aren't even counting Milwaukee until tomorrow, the county was nearly 70% Clinton in 2016 and had a difference of over 100k to the dems, so without some of that info the current counts will be warped.
Is it simply like what happened here, the left have put up a an extremely poor candidate and suffered accordingly? Labour may lose the 2 unloseable elections. I hope the analysis isn't simply Murdoch influenced the elections. I hope there is a more sophisticated analysis if Trump does win.
Last edited:
Yeah I think they should have swung to a young candidate. Biden was a lazy choice by the dems.
Its not only labour making those mistakes though, remember who the opposition is in VIC?
Id welcome some sophistication also.
perhaps the human species is devolving?
regressing to cavemen, cavewomen and non-binary cavethems?
Keeping an eye on politico.com as it seems to be the most non-partisan site I can find. There is no sign on there, either numbers or commentary that explains the betting odds swing.
The only thing I can think of is Florida's latin vote didn't go as expected so they are modeling that in other latin heavy areas.
The only thing I can think of is Florida's latin vote didn't go as expected so they are modeling that in other latin heavy areas.
Think the ABC starts with a baseline of states which were held by 10% or more at the last election being automatically given to the incumbent party.
So far not a single state where counting has commenced looks likely to change hands, with the possible exception of Arizona.
Not even close to science.
Get a more accurate result from checking out some chicken entrails.
