Talking Politics

[Panthera Tigris]

Bloody hell, you are right, Hanson is up for election.

However, not sure she will lose.

LNP have 2.2 quotas
ALP have 1.7 quotas
Greens have 0.9 quotas

So, you would think LNP 2 seats, ALP 2 seats, Greens 1 seat. That leaves 1 left and Hanson has 0.55 of a quota.

Very much depends on where the preferences go and the preference count in proportional rep is insanely complex. The left over quotas from tickets who have elected senators are allocated as partial votes, so, looking at the above, after using 2 quotas worth of votes the LNP preferences go through as one eleventh of a vote each (as the other 10 elevenths were used to elect their 2 senators. These are allocated before candidates are knocked out. When candidates are knocked out their preferences go through as full votes as the vote has not been used to elect any senators.

This will take time and they will need to wait for all the votes to come in, including postal and international votes. But Hanson has the highest proportion of the last quota as it stands at the moment.

Counting, yeah, tell me about it. I was employed to do senate re-count back before above the line voting, it was laborious but at least we didn't have to deal with exhausted votes with optional preferential.

DS

Agree, could go either way for her. To be honest, if she gets in, probably a fair result for QLD in terms of the demographic and social composition and how they vote. And hence it’s probably a good representation. Two right, two left, one far left, one far right.

I’ve done a few State elections. Am on the employment register in my State’s Electoral Commission. I really enjoy it. Find the work fascinating. I’m a geography and demographics nerd, so it feeds into that general interest as to how geography and social demographics contribute into voting trends. I really value the system we have too. Cannot understate how crucial it is to have an independent electoral commission of the likes of the UK, Canada, NZ and Australia. We don’t have a perfect system but it *smile* all over the corruption of the US electoral system, that has no independent electoral commission. And is instead run by the parties themselves. So I feel it’s my way of caring about, contributing to and upholding the integrity of our democratic system. In saying this I am a disillusioned voter with no natural political home (my views are pretty divergent on various issues). But I can still care about the integrity of the electoral system itself and the crucial role it plays in the fabric of our society.

We have the Hare-Clarke system of preferential voting in our state elections down here, so it’s a similar kind of distribution process as the complex Senate distribution you talk about. I have been meaning to register with the AEC and do a Federal election to compare and contrast with State. Had intended to work this one. But am tied up with junior sports coaching for my little bloke and his friends this winter.

 

[spook]

Not looking good for the Libs. If Fryedburger goes to State, it could be a b!tch fight between him and Guy.

It'd be a short fight. Then we'd get to enjoy seeing Dan wipe the floor with Fraudenturd.

 

[tigersnake]

Corruption lolol Do you think Holmes a court has been supporting these independents from the goodness of his heart ,he has business in the renewables.

Cheer up bengal. Turn that frown upside down.

 

[TT33]

Really hoping Tater head Dutton becomes leader of the Libs, Labor will me morals to win the next election with an increased majority.

If Potato Head does get to be The Leader of the Opposition, it'll just reinforce that the Libs are really way out of touch with the community.

 

[AngryAnt]

Corruption lolol Do you think Holmes a court has been supporting these independents from the goodness of his heart ,he has business in the renewables.

It's almost as if you've never heard of oil and gas donating money to political parties

 

[Tiger44]

I can answer that:

ALP 32.8%
Liberals 23.8%
Greens 11.9%
Nationals 7.6%

Thanks Ian, so we should have a Labor government according to Bengal's electoral theory. And we have.

 

[eZyT]

Corruption lolol Do you think Holmes a court has been supporting these independents from the goodness of his heart ,he has business in the renewables.

Pretty smart - buy up big on turbines

And harness all the *smile* and wind of politics.

The crooked mother *smile* er probably has an army of people on the minimum wage and he'll harvest a dollar an hour off them like slaves?

Probably trademarked the Uluru statement from the heart as well?

And i bet hes gonna race out and buy a first mansion and live in the govt's 40% stake rent free?

Gormless

 

[year of the tiger]

It's almost as if you've never heard of oil and gas donating money to political parties

Nah - that would be influencing a democratic process - can’t see that happening, can you

 

[mrposhman]

I get why most in here are happy, good riddance Scomo, but whilst Labor will win the election and should gain a majority government, they will do so on preference., They have gained from the publics distaste for Scomo, but the question for Labor is why have the public who are disillusioned with Scomo not voted for the ALP. Despite 2019 being a poor result for the ALP, the popular vote right now shows a REDUCTION in primary voting for the ALP.

It suggests to me that the public do not trust the ALP but just wanted shot of Scomo. Thats a challenge for Albo to deal with over the next 3 years. The thing I read recently was Scomo was the 1st prime minister to see out his full term since 2007. Thats what a lot of people remember the ALP as, the constant back and forth between Rudd and Gillard so will be interesting to see how the ALP deal with this as it does seem like a massive challenge to them.

Whilst I don't like Dutton, the public clearly aren't sure on Albo, if he doesn't deliver over the next 3 years, the Aussie public could swing back the other way (probably through preferences again rather than direct voting) could see a change of government again in 3 years if the ALP don't listen to what these results are telling us.

I'm hoping they come out and go harder on the environment than what they have said initially, this will be a policy that the public will support, bear in mind the vast majority of the Independents campaigned including strong focus on the environment (largely due to how they were financed), so the results again suggest that the public want a stronger position on the environment than what the ALP went in with in their campaign.

 

[Panthera Tigris]

It's almost as if you've never heard of oil and gas donating money to political parties

Pretty smart - buy up big on turbines

And harness all the *smile* and wind of politics.

The crooked mother *smile* er probably has an army of people on the minimum wage and he'll harvest a dollar an hour off them like slaves?

Probably trademarked the Uluru statement from the heart as well?

And i bet hes gonna race out and buy a first mansion and live in the govt's 40% stake rent free?

Gormless

Despite the fact I agree we needed change. And Holmes a Court’s influence was definitely one of the moving parts that helped achieve that. He really is just Clive Palmer of the left. One of those filthy-rich spoiled brats, born with a platinum spoon in his mouth, who think they influence elections by spending millions and millions of dollars. Sure he’s far from unique in this Murdochs and co of course have been doing this for years. But I just have no trust. Narcissistic egotistical *smile* with a big element of self interest.

 

[RoarEmotion]

I get why most in here are happy, good riddance Scomo, but whilst Labor will win the election and should gain a majority government, they will do so on preference., They have gained from the publics distaste for Scomo, but the question for Labor is why have the public who are disillusioned with Scomo not voted for the ALP. Despite 2019 being a poor result for the ALP, the popular vote right now shows a REDUCTION in primary voting for the ALP.

It suggests to me that the public do not trust the ALP but just wanted shot of Scomo. Thats a challenge for Albo to deal with over the next 3 years. The thing I read recently was Scomo was the 1st prime minister to see out his full term since 2007. Thats what a lot of people remember the ALP as, the constant back and forth between Rudd and Gillard so will be interesting to see how the ALP deal with this as it does seem like a massive challenge to them.

Whilst I don't like Dutton, the public clearly aren't sure on Albo, if he doesn't deliver over the next 3 years, the Aussie public could swing back the other way (probably through preferences again rather than direct voting) could see a change of government again in 3 years if the ALP don't listen to what these results are telling us.

I'm hoping they come out and go harder on the environment than what they have said initially, this will be a policy that the public will support, bear in mind the vast majority of the Independents campaigned including strong focus on the environment (largely due to how they were financed), so the results again suggest that the public want a stronger position on the environment than what the ALP went in with in their campaign.

You described me to a T. Voted against LNP not for ALP but preferenced them ahead of nutter parties.

It will be interesting to see if the public does support environmental focus because in the short term to make real rapid change it will impact quality of life negatively for most of the population (IMO). Eg massive carbon taxes impacting cost of everything and banning extractive processes smashing share prices (super funds etc) and leading to energy instability. Against planetary extinction it’s a good choice but doesn’t mesh with 3 year political terms. People want to feel good we are doing things without really appreciating the massive pain a transition will cause (again IMO). Will be interesting to watch how it evolves - was bad enough the drivel that came out against vaccination - a free smart choice with known benefits and costs. Environmental policy has none of that certainty.

 

[Redford]

In a very strong message to the world, Russia has banned Joe Biden from entering Russia.

Oh well. Guess there goes Joe’s Summer holidays.

 

[spook]

If we had a fair and balanced media, Labor wins in a landslide. If it were as biased the other way, Labor wins by a record margin.

There's also the element of class, well described in this Twitter thread explaining why upper middle class women couldn't bring themselves to vote Labor (identity crisis), yet voted for the further-left Greens:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1528262856684470272

 

[eZyT]

Despite the fact I agree we needed change. And Holmes a Court’s influence was definitely one of the moving parts that helped achieve that. He really is just Clive Palmer of the left. One of those filthy-rich spoiled brats, born with a platinum spoon in his mouth, who think they influence elections by spending millions and millions of dollars. Sure he’s far from unique in this Murdochs and co of course have been doing this for years. But I just have no trust. Narcissistic egotistical *smile* with a big element of self interest.

Palmer has a fibreglass lifesize dinosaur collection, and digs up coal

Holmes a court has picassos and doesnt want the planet to fry.

Both rich, yes.

 

[spook]

Labor's primary vote was virtually identical to 2019. But as I said earlier, many in now-Teal seats voted for independents to get rid of the entitled blueblood idiot who thought it was theirs for life.

 

[mrposhman]

You described me to a T. Voted against LNP not for ALP but preferenced them ahead of nutter parties.

It will be interesting to see if the public does support environmental focus because in the short term to make real rapid change it will impact quality of life negatively for most of the population (IMO). Eg massive carbon taxes impacting cost of everything and banning extractive processes smashing share prices (super funds etc) and leading to energy instability. Against planetary extinction it’s a good choice but doesn’t mesh with 3 year political terms. People want to feel good we are doing things without really appreciating the massive pain a transition will cause (again IMO). Will be interesting to watch how it evolves - was bad enough the drivel that came out against vaccination - a free smart choice with known benefits and costs. Environmental policy has none of that certainty.

There are definitely different levels of focus on the environment, and one of these is why I would never vote Green, just purely because their solutions would largely do what you are suggesting. There does need to be a structured move away from the fossil fuel industry and towards greener fuels but there has to be a structured method.

For example, moves to legislate moves away from certain fuels like coal by say 2035 with massive penalties on energy generated from coal sources following this. That ensures that companies can invest now for their future, as my expectation would be that future fuel duties or whatever you want to call them would be so cost prohibitive that they would have no energy retailer wishing to purchase their energy.

I want to see a change to the solar subisidies / FIT's. They need to be increased for those that install rooftop solar. That is a significant move, this should especially be focused on businesses. The reason being, is that currently payback is there for businesses but it takes too long. Payback of 7 years or so, will not be prioritized against other capital investment options purely due to the payback period. Reducing that to around 3-4 would result in significant business uptake IMO, and for me rooftop solar is the biggest no brainer that Australia has ever seen.

The government also need to focus on offering grants etc towards ideas that can replace the coal industry in those coal industry hubs we have specifically around Newcastle and Gladstone. Has to be something around plastic recycling IMO. Companies would pay you to take plastics off them and technologies exist to deal with this but they are capital intensive, so there needs to be some focus on attracting these industries to areas with deepwater ports that can utilise excess port capacity in these locations.

These things would result in massive steps forward for us as a nation without going down the issues that you raise around transition pain.

 

[spook]

There is no such thing as a "Clive Palmer of the left". Clive Palmer's are exclusive to the right.

 

[Panthera Tigris]

You described me to a T. Voted against LNP not for ALP but preferenced them ahead of nutter parties.

It will be interesting to see if the public does support environmental focus because in the short term to make real rapid change it will impact quality of life negatively for most of the population (IMO). Eg massive carbon taxes impacting cost of everything and banning extractive processes smashing share prices (super funds etc) and leading to energy instability. Against planetary extinction it’s a good choice but doesn’t mesh with 3 year political terms. People want to feel good we are doing things without really appreciating the massive pain a transition will cause (again IMO). Will be interesting to watch how it evolves - was bad enough the drivel that came out against vaccination - a free smart choice with known benefits and costs. Environmental policy has none of that certainty.

I’m on pretty much exactly the same page as you RE. You conveyed pretty much my thought process going into the polling booth.

It’s interesting listening to the commentary about the makeup of the Parliament with the uniqueness of the results. A lot of commentary suggesting that from left to right you have the Greens, then ALP, then the teal independents, then L/NP, and One Nation at the furthest right (Lambie is an odd one in that she would be with One Nation on some stuff, but blue collar Labor on other issues).

However from everything I have seen I don’t think this commentary has the teal independents correct. It suggests that the teals are the moderate Libs splintering off (the inference that the coalition might be splitting into moderate and conservative parties). It’s messier than such a straight forward explanation as that. Most of the policy platform I have read of the teals, they seem somewhere between the Greens and ALP on the left right spectrum. Certainly on environmental and socio-cultural they are. Haven’t seen enough on their economic thoughts and spending on welfare to really form a view of where they sit there. Certainly someone like Holms a Court I could see talking the talk - that we should tax the rich more to spend on social programmes - meanwhile using sophisticated transfer pricing and trust structures in offshore tax havens to minimise his tax liability.

 

[mrposhman]

If we had a fair and balanced media, Labor wins in a landslide. If it were as biased the other way, Labor wins by a record margin.

There's also the element of class, well described in this Twitter thread explaining why upper middle class women couldn't bring themselves to vote Labor (identity crisis), yet voted for the further-left Greens:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1528262856684470272

spook you are almost sliding into the same errors that Scomo did. Blame someone else. Facts are, the public clearly didn't want to vote for Morrison but couldn't vote Labor. You can blame the media, or do something about it (not you in particular). I expect Albo to focus on this.

Look further than 2019. Assuming the ALP vote remains consistent with 2019 (or slightly down), it really highlights the problem. The electorate has grown significantly since 2010 but the ALP has not grown its voting base. The voting base is voting their primary vote towards non traditional party candidates and both of the major parties need to acknowledge that and identify how they can claim this back, otherwise I expect to see a continuing growth in the Others group. They will create another party and send 1 of these parties to the wall, being as it would most likely be some sort of left leaning party (as I expect the focus to be on the environment), I see this as a bigger negative to the ALP.

 

[mrposhman]

spook you are almost sliding into the same errors that Scomo did. Blame someone else. Facts are, the public clearly didn't want to vote for Morrison but couldn't vote Labor. You can blame the media, or do something about it (not you in particular). I expect Albo to focus on this.

Look further than 2019. Assuming the ALP vote remains consistent with 2019 (or slightly down), it really highlights the problem. The electorate has grown significantly since 2010 but the ALP has not grown its voting base. The voting base is voting their primary vote towards non traditional party candidates and both of the major parties need to acknowledge that and identify how they can claim this back, otherwise I expect to see a continuing growth in the Others group. They will create another party and send 1 of these parties to the wall, being as it would most likely be some sort of left leaning party (as I expect the focus to be on the environment), I see this as a bigger negative to the ALP.

View attachment 15482

I probably should have included the %'s of the primary vote to make the point better. ALP are currently at 32.8%).

Others (which includes One Nation and UAP) rising to 19.6% at this stage.