Talking Politics

[Panthera Tigris]

If we had a fair and balanced media, Labor wins in a landslide. If it were as biased the other way, Labor wins by a record margin.

There's also the element of class, well described in this Twitter thread explaining why upper middle class women couldn't bring themselves to vote Labor (identity crisis), yet voted for the further-left Greens:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1528262856684470272

Only just read this Spook. But you’ll note my last posting that I agree. The ‘teals’ as far as I can tell are between the greens and ALP on the left-right spectrum. Not a moderate splintering of the L/NP as has been suggested in many other sources.

This identity crisis the author describes you see in other parts of the spectrum too.

Take an electorate like Hunter in the Newcastle hinterland. Traditionally one of the safest of safe ALP seats. Blue collar coal mining (and in the past, steel manufacturing) territory. These people’s interests and focus areas have diverged enormously from the left leaning inner-city professionals that the ALP pitches to. So they feel alienated. Disdained even. But at the same time, they cannot bring themselves to vote for the class enemy (the coalition). So they actually voted even further to the right in the 2019 election to make it marginal. It helped that the One Nation candidate was a staunch CFMEU man I believe, who had worked in the coal mines or an associated trade. But the massive One Nation vote and that preference flow brought the Coalition up to nearly level with the ALP.

There was a small swing back to the ALP this time. But they only achieved that by running a bloke who would look more at home on the Shooters, Rooters, Fishers & Farmers ticket. And the One Nation vote there was still relatively strong.

You see this in the north of England too. Staunch Labour constituencies who feel culturally alienated by the left leaning London professional class, who tend to dominate much of Labour’s narrative. But cannot bring themselves to vote for the class enemy they still hold massive distrust towards (Tories). It was these constituencies who essentially carried the Brexit vote, despite Labour strongly encouraging voters to vote remain. Feeling politically suffocated, they saw Brexit as their moment to give the middle finger to the political establishment they feel so alienated and disdained by. That is what quite a bit of the post-mortem pieces written have concluded.

 

[spook]

spook you are almost sliding into the same errors that Scomo did. Blame someone else. Facts are, the public clearly didn't want to vote for Morrison but couldn't vote Labor. You can blame the media, or do something about it (not you in particular). I expect Albo to focus on this.

Look further than 2019. Assuming the ALP vote remains consistent with 2019 (or slightly down), it really highlights the problem. The electorate has grown significantly since 2010 but the ALP has not grown its voting base. The voting base is voting their primary vote towards non traditional party candidates and both of the major parties need to acknowledge that and identify how they can claim this back, otherwise I expect to see a continuing growth in the Others group. They will create another party and send 1 of these parties to the wall, being as it would most likely be some sort of left leaning party (as I expect the focus to be on the environment), I see this as a bigger negative to the ALP.

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You should put your CV in to the ABC. "Why Labor's election victory is really an embarrassing loss" is their narrative.

Clearly, a large percentage of people have expressed their dissatisfaction with the two majors. I don't see that as a bad thing. The Greens (and the Teals on climate) are likely to drag them back from centre-right-ish to centre-left again, which is where Albo wants to be (given he's unlikely to ever get his 'True Left' preference) and where the electorate clearly wants things to go.

The people have spoken. Australia has been slipping too far to the right for 26 years and we want a correction. They say change happens slowly, then all at once - boom, Labor's been told they are also too far right. There are a lot in Labor, first and foremost the PM, who will be rapt to hear it.

 

[spook]

Only just read this Spook. But you’ll note my last posting that I agree. The ‘teals’ as far as I can tell are between the greens and ALP on the left-right spectrum. Not a moderate splintering of the L/NP as has been suggested in many other sources.

Nup. Disagree. They're Liberal voters who want action on climate change. "Doctors Who Like Trees" as the scotch inspired me to call them last night.

 

[Panthera Tigris]

Nup. Disagree. They're Liberal voters who want action on climate change. "Doctors Who Like Trees" as the scotch inspired me to call them last night.

Sorry you misinterpreted me.

I was agreeing with the author that the teal candidates are not really moderate libs. They are left of the ALP (between the ALP-GNS). Not referring to the voters.

 

[spook]

Sorry you misinterpreted me.

I was agreeing with the author that the teal candidates are not really moderate libs. They are left of the ALP (between the ALP-GNS). Not referring to the voters.

No, I get you. But some of them are not left of the ALP, except on climate action. Some are. That's why they're not a party - some of them are former ALP members, some former Liberal members.

 

[Panthera Tigris]

No, I get you. But some of them are not left of the ALP, except on climate action. Some are. That's why they're not a party - some of them are former ALP members, some former Liberal members.

Like I said in another post. I think on environmental and socio-cultural a lot of them are between the ALP and Greens. But economically, I hadn’t seen enough to get a feel.

Some seem the types who would talk the talk that we should pay more tax to fund their pet social programs. Meanwhile using sophisticated trust structures and offshore tax havens to minimise their own tax liability.

 

[tigerman]

I really hope that Labor get to govern as a majority government. They will have no excuses, and won't be able to blame the Greens or Independents.
Come next election they will then be judged on their election promises, and whether they implemented them, and what impact they have had. They deserve that.

 

[RoarEmotion]

There are definitely different levels of focus on the environment, and one of these is why I would never vote Green, just purely because their solutions would largely do what you are suggesting. There does need to be a structured move away from the fossil fuel industry and towards greener fuels but there has to be a structured method.

For example, moves to legislate moves away from certain fuels like coal by say 2035 with massive penalties on energy generated from coal sources following this. That ensures that companies can invest now for their future, as my expectation would be that future fuel duties or whatever you want to call them would be so cost prohibitive that they would have no energy retailer wishing to purchase their energy.

I want to see a change to the solar subisidies / FIT's. They need to be increased for those that install rooftop solar. That is a significant move, this should especially be focused on businesses. The reason being, is that currently payback is there for businesses but it takes too long. Payback of 7 years or so, will not be prioritized against other capital investment options purely due to the payback period. Reducing that to around 3-4 would result in significant business uptake IMO, and for me rooftop solar is the biggest no brainer that Australia has ever seen.

The government also need to focus on offering grants etc towards ideas that can replace the coal industry in those coal industry hubs we have specifically around Newcastle and Gladstone. Has to be something around plastic recycling IMO. Companies would pay you to take plastics off them and technologies exist to deal with this but they are capital intensive, so there needs to be some focus on attracting these industries to areas with deepwater ports that can utilise excess port capacity in these locations.

These things would result in massive steps forward for us as a nation without going down the issues that you raise around transition pain.

You made my point.

These things will help but won’t make change quickly enough. No one in the world who has stuff is going to embrace the pain needed.

Globally we have 9 years at current excess co2 to consume the budget that leads to a 1.5c rise. Then we need to be net zero.

At the same time the “turn off co2” approach only done by one country is also completely ineffective.

Doing what you propose is definitely movement in the right direction but the legacy of global Inaction has basically *smile* us all with the costs exponentially rising to change course at the rate required.

 

[Brodders17]

I reckon the *smile* show that was the Morrison government helped keep Labor's primary vote down. there is a constant (incorrect) narrative that both major parties are the same. people who fall for this narrative therefor couldnt vote for Labor, in case they really as bad as the Libs.

and i reckon a lot of people vote without much thought. that used to mean they just gave their vote to Labor or the Libs, but that is not cool anymore so votes go to smaller parties on both sides.

 

[mrposhman]

You see this in the north of England too. Staunch Labour constituencies who feel culturally alienated by the left leaning London professional class, who tend to dominate much of Labour’s narrative. But cannot bring themselves to vote for the class enemy they still hold massive distrust towards (Tories). It was these constituencies who essentially carried the Brexit vote, despite Labour strongly encouraging voters to vote remain. Feeling politically suffocated, they saw Brexit as their moment to give the middle finger to the political establishment they feel so alienated and disdained by. That is what quite a bit of the post-mortem pieces written have concluded.

Englands (or the UK) is actually an interesting example of something the ALP need to be careful about here, it was much easier to achieve in the UK, but with the UK being a 1st past the post democratic vote, Labour may never get back into power. They have always been dominant in Northern England, Wales and some parts of London, and the 1 kicker in Scotland. Losing almost every seat in Scotland to the SNP (another left leaning party), sucked too many seats away from Labour in an area that was a Labour stronghold (the tories were never strong in Scotland and probably never will be). Scotland was such a big part of their strategy but those seats are largely off limits now. Unless they merge with the Lib Dems then it will be very hard for them to win another election, without a massive sway in support for a significantly popular party leader.

 

[Scoop]

Easy breakdown of events here.

Here's where things went right for Labor, and very wrong for the Liberals, on election night

The Australian people have spoken, and the big winners are Labor and the "teal" independents. So how did it all unfold?

www.abc.net.au

 

[mrposhman]

I reckon the *smile* show that was the Morrison government helped keep Labor's primary vote down. there is a constant (incorrect) narrative that both major parties are the same. people who fall for this narrative therefor couldnt vote for Labor, in case they really as bad as the Libs.

and i reckon a lot of people vote without much thought. that used to mean they just gave their vote to Labor or the Libs, but that is not cool anymore so votes go to smaller parties on both sides.

Thats certainly possible and it will be really interesting to see what happens in 3 years. If Albo can deliver on what he says, and can deliver on driving significant economic change, then maybe we will see a difference as that will lead to some significant trust in the standing government which clearly was lost under the Morrison government.

The ALP have gained no voters in 12 years and thats the challenge that sits ahead of Albo, is how can he engage with those voters, so they don't feel inclined to vote the way of the independents, as you can guarantee this is what the Dutton lead Libs will be doing, how can they swing the votes of those independents across to them which may alienate some of their core base further (as winning back the One Nation / UAP voters will do very little as they probably all voted their preferences to the Libs already ahead of the ALP).

 

[tigersnake]

You described me to a T. Voted against LNP not for ALP but preferenced them ahead of nutter parties.

It will be interesting to see if the public does support environmental focus because in the short term to make real rapid change it will impact quality of life negatively for most of the population (IMO). Eg massive carbon taxes impacting cost of everything and banning extractive processes smashing share prices (super funds etc) and leading to energy instability. Against planetary extinction it’s a good choice but doesn’t mesh with 3 year political terms. People want to feel good we are doing things without really appreciating the massive pain a transition will cause (again IMO). Will be interesting to watch how it evolves - was bad enough the drivel that came out against vaccination - a free smart choice with known benefits and costs. Environmental policy has none of that certainty.

This isn't easy to untangle. In short, the carbon tax was and will be a good thing. If you talk to anyone with expertise who doesn't work for the mining industry, (and even some of them like it), the Murdoch press or the Coalition. Check out assessments of Gilliards Carbon Tax, on a rational analysis it was a raging success. Amazing, filled government coffers, reduced emmissions and had no impact on joe public, and it was only in for 18 months or so. Canning it was insanity. But thats Murdoch and the Coalition.

There will will be impacts of transition to low hydrocarbon economy, but the CT will help that not hinder it. Companies will pay the tax, and they will pass on some of the cost, but not all of it. People will only pay so much for stuff. For example the price of beef has tripled at the saleyards, but only gone up 50-100% at the butcher. Companies will have a reason to get clean, and they will, and that process will create jobs, and the tax itself will be ploughed back into the economy and create innovation and jobs.

As for share prices, like all other structural change, some winners some losers, but generally any big new innovative change its an overall positive. Ethical share funds have been doing very well. Business is a step ahead of government anyway.

There are no certainties thats true, and also true on the gear grinding with 3 year terms. But this is already happening. weaning our economy off coal won't be easy, but it won't be as hard as most think and will deliver benefits. Environmental and economic. Besides, we have a shitload of rare earth, tungsten, lithium, cobalt and vanadium reserves we can sell for a motza.

 

[tigersnake]

Despite the fact I agree we needed change. And Holmes a Court’s influence was definitely one of the moving parts that helped achieve that. He really is just Clive Palmer of the left. One of those filthy-rich spoiled brats, born with a platinum spoon in his mouth, who think they influence elections by spending millions and millions of dollars. Sure he’s far from unique in this Murdochs and co of course have been doing this for years. But I just have no trust. Narcissistic egotistical *smile* with a big element of self interest.

This is a wierd post PT. First, filthy-rich people don't think they can influence elections, they can and do influence elections. We live in a capitalist system. Rich people run the show. Second, I don't know how your moral compass is set up, but for me, I'll take a rich guy who is trying to help save the planet over one who is trying to destroy it any day of the week. And after all, everyone has some element of self interest in everything they do. I'm not sure what your point is, all rich people are the same? We need a communist revolution?

 

[DavidSSS]

From the ABC, results by party. I should have continued:

ALP 32.8%
Liberals 23.8%
Greens 11.9%
Liberal National Party 7.6%
One Nation 4.9%
UAP 4.2%
The Nationals 4.1%

rest is independents and more minor parties

Not quite right, Sorry, very right! It is very complicated with the LNP being a coalition in most states but 1 party in Queensland and the NT.

The numbers from the AEC as they stand at the moment are:
ALP: 32.84%
Liberal: 23.82%
Liberal National Party of Queensland: 7.58%
The Nationals: 4.06%
Country Liberal Party (NT): 0.24%

All of the above except the ALP make up the LNP coalition.

See: https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-27966-NAT.htm

This is also where it gets difficult comparing results over the years, the LNP of Qld has not always been 1 party, can't remember when they joined together but there used to be separate Lib and Nat parties in Queensland.

One interesting aspect of the election is the seats. In Queensland the LNP have 22 seats and ALP 5. In Victoria it is LNP 10 and ALP 24, NSW is LNP 16 ALP 23. Clearly Queensland is an outlier, and they keep voting in ALP State governments. The ALP have work to do in Queensland.

Although the AEC is projecting seat outcomes and is very conservative when doing this as well as waiting for formal preference counts (see how Melbourne is not called by the AEC, no preference count by the look of it, even though Bandt has over 50% of the primary vote), to determine whether the indication of the result is clear, see: https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDefault-27966.htm This will change over time as counting continues. Also note how no seats are yet declared, that won't happen for a little while as the initial count at the booths on election night is just an indicative count, the votes are counted again over the next couple of weeks.

The AEC are possibly the best electoral commission in the world, we have amazingly smooth elections which are very well organised and it is damned hard to cheat on a scale that might change results (the occasional dead voter is not enough to swing seats).

It is true that both major parties saw a reduction in their primary vote from 2019. It is also true that the primary votes of both major parties does not justify their combined proportion of seats won in the lower house. However, that is mostly a function of single member electorates. To some extent the long term reduction of primary votes for both major parties has hit a bit of a significant point where others, in the case of the 2022 election this means Greens and independents, are now taking some of the seats. The numbers on the cross bench are seeing a very big increase in the next parliament. If the trend continues expect even more cross benchers to be elected. With single member electorates there is a threshold where below the threshold independents and minor parties are only rarely elected, but you move above that threshold and you do start to see less seats won by the major parties. We seem to be around that threshold as reflected in the results.

As for the incoming government. they will need to act on the issues which had an impact in the election. What they would be wise to do is to avoid the ScoMo modus operandi of basically acting like it was always an election campaign and focussing mainly on denigrating their opponents. ScoMo always seemed to be campaigning. The ALP should get some things done quickly and ignore the opposition for a while. Specifically climate change needs to be acted on, the later you act the more drastic the actions need to be. One very big issue in climate change is that we are the world's largest exporter of coal, this has to stop, if not for the environment then for the cliff we will fall off when coal demand slows (think of Geelong getting too old to contend!). They need to set up an ICAC quickly, they should take the model put forward by one of the independents in the last parliament and just check it over to see if it is ok, and get it passed. The toxic anti-women culture in parliament simply has to end, a lot more women, and independent women, elected this time should help. Plus, address indigenous issues - this is trickier than it sounds as the Uluru statement did not represent all indigenous voices, but it would be a good start.

DS

 

[spook]

Another good thread:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1528373435432587264

 

[Panthera Tigris]

This is a wierd post PT. First, filthy-rich people don't think they can influence elections, they can and do influence elections. We live in a capitalist system. Rich people run the show. Second, I don't know how your moral compass is set up, but for me, I'll take a rich guy who is trying to help save the planet over one who is trying to destroy it any day of the week. And after all, everyone has some element of self interest in everything they do. I'm not sure what your point is, all rich people are the same? We need a communist revolution?

There’s wealthy and then there’s wealthy. I’m always skeptical of people THAT obscenely wealthy. How above board really was it obtained? I see extremely wealthy people and corporations preaching all manner of social awareness to us uncultured heathen masses. Yet in the background they are paying slave wages in third world countries, using all manner of convoluted transfer pricing, shell companies and trust structures via offshore tax havens to minimise their tax. But all is forgiven because they do a lookaway hand pass with their apparent social and environmental awareness.

 

[spook]

All this talk about it being an "ugly" or "weak" victory for Labor is so much horseshit. The Liberal Party has been banished, and will now eat itself alive. Labor will be in government for a decade. Minimum.

 

[tigersnake]

There’s wealthy and then there’s wealthy. I’m always skeptical of people THAT obscenely wealthy. How above board really was it obtained? I see extremely wealthy people and corporations preaching all manner of social awareness to us uncultured heathen masses. Yet in the background they are paying slave wages in third world countries, using all manner of convoluted transfer pricing, shell companies and trust structures via offshore tax havens to minimise their tax. But all is forgiven because they do a lookaway hand pass with their apparent social and environmental awareness.

I take your point, and share your skepticism, but my point stands. You'd be be hard pressed to find a bigger *smile* than Palmer. His career has been one of corruption and ruthlessness and dodgey deals par excellence. And he keeps doubling down.

 

[tigersnake]

The Liberal Party has been banished, and will now eat itself alive. Labor will be in government for a decade. Minimum.

Once I would have agreed. But you can't take anything for granted in politics nowadays.