He’ll get back in with a reduced majority.
Serious question: You say Andrews will win on a reduced majority, but where are the losses coming from?
They are likely to lose Hawthorn to the Teals and Nepean to the Libs.
There is talk of disgruntlement in the west. I think there will be a swing against Labor in the west, but will it be enough to unseat any of them? I guess a couple of independents might have a chance in a couple of seats (including PRE's own Joe Garra in Point Cook). The Liberals don’t.
Then you have Northcote that may fall to the Greens. And the Liberals might have a chance in Ashwood (2.0% swing needed), Pakenham (2.2%) and Ripon (2.7%). Anything else required a 3% swing or higher.
The Nationals may take Mildura.
At best I can only see the Libs/Coalition winning 4-5 seats (they need 18 to form government).
Now lets look at the other side. The Libs have 9 seats with a margin of 1.3% or less.
Hastings is 0.0% after redistribution and Paul Mercurio is running for Labor. Both Labor and Teals believe they can take Caulfield. The Teals can win Brighton and Labor will think Sandringham, Bass, Glen Waverley and Bayswater are winnable.
Teals will almost certainly win in Kew and an independent is a very good chance in Benambra.
Based on this, the Liberals will take a few, but will lose a few. No real net gain.