Thought I'd separate this discussion from the Shai thread. It's worthy of discussion but shouldn't be clogging Shai's thread.
The entry of GC and GWS deeply impacted the 2010 and 2011 drafts, and to a lesser extent, the 2012 and even subsequent drafts with compensation picks.
They both had a double dip at their inaugural draft years, able to take a dozen 17-year-olds the year prior. Then they had nine of the first 15 picks in their first draft. So theoretically, Gold Coast could have secured 21 of the best 27 18-year-olds in 2010, and GWS the same a year later. Except picking kids a year out from the draft is a crap shoot. Gold Coast went with Luke Russell, Mav Weller, Josh Toy, Taylor Hine, Matt Shaw, Piers Flanagan, Hayden Jolly, Alex Keath, Jack Hutchins, Tom Nicholls, Brandon Matera and Trent McKenzie. How did that crop look a year later?
Even with a dozen kids removed from the draft pool a year earlier and the swag of Suns' picks meaning that we had picks 6 and 30 after finishing second-last, we still could have walked away from the draft with Tom Lynch and Luke Parker. (We got Conca and Batchelor.)
GWS did better with their 17-year-olds, securing Jeremy Cameron, Adam Treloar, Dylan Shiel, Nathan Wilson, Jack Hombsch, Tom Bugg, Tim Golds, Sam Darley, Josh Growden, Jarrod Harding, Simon Tunbridge and Gerard Ugle. 4/12.
Our reward for finishing 12th of 17 in 2011 was pick 14, which we traded to the Giants for pick 15 and the rights to Steve Morris. We drafted Brandon Ellis and Todd Elton (26) but could have had Elliott Yeo (30), Brad Hill (33), Lachie Neale (58), Lincoln McCarthy (66), Jarrod Witts (67), Rory Laird (RD5), Sam Menegola (RD44) or Harry Cunningham (RD93!).
So the opportunity was still there to find topline players. Tasmania is highly unlikely to scoop the pool just because it gets draft concessions.
In the meantime we have the 2024, 2025 and 2026 drafts to improve our list before Tassie has a bite.
We have a full hand this year. The first-round picks of Brisbane, Carlton and Gold Coast are likely to be up for grabs. With two second-rounders, three third-rounders and three fourth-rounders we have points galore to trade up. Aiming for a top-10 pick to go with our likely own top-10, plus another pick inside 20 and one or two more inside 30 is not unrealistic in what is shaping as a strong draft (would like to see some talls emerge).
Carts wants to trade Shai to improve that hand further. I'd rather see what we can get for Bakes and Graham. Maybe a late teens pick for Bakes and probably no more than a pick in the 30s for Jack. (I'd probably keep one of them anyway.)
I did the ladder predictor last night and we could finish 16th with 7 wins and a percentage of 90, knocking Dimma out of the finals in the last round. A competitive season and a blue-chip young mid coming in.
Carts is right that we don't have our next Dusty (no one does) or Cotch (does anyone? Maybe Sydney with Warner, maybe Poort with Horney-Toad at least playingwise if not leadership). But we do have what many of us think is the makings of our next core. We can draft our next champions ovee the next three years.
But didn’t we have the same issue when GWS and GC were coming into the comp? We didn’t throw out the baby with the bath water and trade out a Cotchin or Martin?
My philosophy is keep your elite talent and hit the draft hard this year and next. We certainly have the draft capital.
We’d already bottomed out to get Cotchin and Martin, Aces. Only way to get ‘em.
We’re further back than we were even in 2010. By the end of 2010 we’d recruited Cotch and Dusty in consecutive years.
So we need draft capital. Fast, before Tassie gets most of it. Otherwise the door is shut on our next elite midfield.
Prime time Bolton is stuck out of sync now in a mediocre team. The only efficient way we pave the way for the next flag is to make hay from a Bolton trade.
The chances of shooting the lights out again with rookie and peripheral picks like we did with Lambert, Grigg etc are pretty remote.
Sure, we’ll get some right, but we also need a strong top end injection this draft, no time to waste.
Remember there’s no guarantee we’ll pick up a Dusty-like messiah at the top end either.
If we just kept Bolton and sit on our hands we might get a pick 7 or 8 this year, the same next year, then perhaps be pushed out of the top ten by Tassie? That’s a mediocre result for a team steadily sinking into no man’s land. We aren’t building a contending midfield like that.
Far better to triple our chances this year by adding a couple of high picks in an uncompromised draft. Attack the top five picks.
No one wants to see Bolton go, I’m a fan too. But he’s our ticket to the next gen before Tassie gets involved and that’s where our focus should be.
With our draft hand this year there is a good chance we’ll be able to manufacture a second top 10 pick ( in conjunction with our own) for teams chasing academy/father son points. If we trade Baker to one of the WA teams there’s another potential late first rounder and we’ll probably have an early/mid second rounder left over too with a bit of luck. Use one of those top 10 picks on a gun mid, the other on the next best key position player, the late first on another mid and the second rounder on another KPP and all of a sudden our future might not look so bad?
The entry of GC and GWS deeply impacted the 2010 and 2011 drafts, and to a lesser extent, the 2012 and even subsequent drafts with compensation picks.
They both had a double dip at their inaugural draft years, able to take a dozen 17-year-olds the year prior. Then they had nine of the first 15 picks in their first draft. So theoretically, Gold Coast could have secured 21 of the best 27 18-year-olds in 2010, and GWS the same a year later. Except picking kids a year out from the draft is a crap shoot. Gold Coast went with Luke Russell, Mav Weller, Josh Toy, Taylor Hine, Matt Shaw, Piers Flanagan, Hayden Jolly, Alex Keath, Jack Hutchins, Tom Nicholls, Brandon Matera and Trent McKenzie. How did that crop look a year later?
Even with a dozen kids removed from the draft pool a year earlier and the swag of Suns' picks meaning that we had picks 6 and 30 after finishing second-last, we still could have walked away from the draft with Tom Lynch and Luke Parker. (We got Conca and Batchelor.)
GWS did better with their 17-year-olds, securing Jeremy Cameron, Adam Treloar, Dylan Shiel, Nathan Wilson, Jack Hombsch, Tom Bugg, Tim Golds, Sam Darley, Josh Growden, Jarrod Harding, Simon Tunbridge and Gerard Ugle. 4/12.
Our reward for finishing 12th of 17 in 2011 was pick 14, which we traded to the Giants for pick 15 and the rights to Steve Morris. We drafted Brandon Ellis and Todd Elton (26) but could have had Elliott Yeo (30), Brad Hill (33), Lachie Neale (58), Lincoln McCarthy (66), Jarrod Witts (67), Rory Laird (RD5), Sam Menegola (RD44) or Harry Cunningham (RD93!).
So the opportunity was still there to find topline players. Tasmania is highly unlikely to scoop the pool just because it gets draft concessions.
In the meantime we have the 2024, 2025 and 2026 drafts to improve our list before Tassie has a bite.
We have a full hand this year. The first-round picks of Brisbane, Carlton and Gold Coast are likely to be up for grabs. With two second-rounders, three third-rounders and three fourth-rounders we have points galore to trade up. Aiming for a top-10 pick to go with our likely own top-10, plus another pick inside 20 and one or two more inside 30 is not unrealistic in what is shaping as a strong draft (would like to see some talls emerge).
Carts wants to trade Shai to improve that hand further. I'd rather see what we can get for Bakes and Graham. Maybe a late teens pick for Bakes and probably no more than a pick in the 30s for Jack. (I'd probably keep one of them anyway.)
I did the ladder predictor last night and we could finish 16th with 7 wins and a percentage of 90, knocking Dimma out of the finals in the last round. A competitive season and a blue-chip young mid coming in.
Carts is right that we don't have our next Dusty (no one does) or Cotch (does anyone? Maybe Sydney with Warner, maybe Poort with Horney-Toad at least playingwise if not leadership). But we do have what many of us think is the makings of our next core. We can draft our next champions ovee the next three years.