Preparing for Tasmania: RFC 2024-2028

[spook]

Thought I'd separate this discussion from the Shai thread. It's worthy of discussion but shouldn't be clogging Shai's thread.

But didn’t we have the same issue when GWS and GC were coming into the comp? We didn’t throw out the baby with the bath water and trade out a Cotchin or Martin?

My philosophy is keep your elite talent and hit the draft hard this year and next. We certainly have the draft capital.

We’d already bottomed out to get Cotchin and Martin, Aces. Only way to get ‘em.

We’re further back than we were even in 2010. By the end of 2010 we’d recruited Cotch and Dusty in consecutive years.

So we need draft capital. Fast, before Tassie gets most of it. Otherwise the door is shut on our next elite midfield.

Prime time Bolton is stuck out of sync now in a mediocre team. The only efficient way we pave the way for the next flag is to make hay from a Bolton trade.

The chances of shooting the lights out again with rookie and peripheral picks like we did with Lambert, Grigg etc are pretty remote.

Sure, we’ll get some right, but we also need a strong top end injection this draft, no time to waste.

Remember there’s no guarantee we’ll pick up a Dusty-like messiah at the top end either.

If we just kept Bolton and sit on our hands we might get a pick 7 or 8 this year, the same next year, then perhaps be pushed out of the top ten by Tassie? That’s a mediocre result for a team steadily sinking into no man’s land. We aren’t building a contending midfield like that.

Far better to triple our chances this year by adding a couple of high picks in an uncompromised draft. Attack the top five picks.

No one wants to see Bolton go, I’m a fan too. But he’s our ticket to the next gen before Tassie gets involved and that’s where our focus should be.

With our draft hand this year there is a good chance we’ll be able to manufacture a second top 10 pick ( in conjunction with our own) for teams chasing academy/father son points. If we trade Baker to one of the WA teams there’s another potential late first rounder and we’ll probably have an early/mid second rounder left over too with a bit of luck. Use one of those top 10 picks on a gun mid, the other on the next best key position player, the late first on another mid and the second rounder on another KPP and all of a sudden our future might not look so bad?

The entry of GC and GWS deeply impacted the 2010 and 2011 drafts, and to a lesser extent, the 2012 and even subsequent drafts with compensation picks.

They both had a double dip at their inaugural draft years, able to take a dozen 17-year-olds the year prior. Then they had nine of the first 15 picks in their first draft. So theoretically, Gold Coast could have secured 21 of the best 27 18-year-olds in 2010, and GWS the same a year later. Except picking kids a year out from the draft is a crap shoot. Gold Coast went with Luke Russell, Mav Weller, Josh Toy, Taylor Hine, Matt Shaw, Piers Flanagan, Hayden Jolly, Alex Keath, Jack Hutchins, Tom Nicholls, Brandon Matera and Trent McKenzie. How did that crop look a year later?

Even with a dozen kids removed from the draft pool a year earlier and the swag of Suns' picks meaning that we had picks 6 and 30 after finishing second-last, we still could have walked away from the draft with Tom Lynch and Luke Parker. (We got Conca and Batchelor.)

GWS did better with their 17-year-olds, securing Jeremy Cameron, Adam Treloar, Dylan Shiel, Nathan Wilson, Jack Hombsch, Tom Bugg, Tim Golds, Sam Darley, Josh Growden, Jarrod Harding, Simon Tunbridge and Gerard Ugle. 4/12.

Our reward for finishing 12th of 17 in 2011 was pick 14, which we traded to the Giants for pick 15 and the rights to Steve Morris. We drafted Brandon Ellis and Todd Elton (26) but could have had Elliott Yeo (30), Brad Hill (33), Lachie Neale (58), Lincoln McCarthy (66), Jarrod Witts (67), Rory Laird (RD5), Sam Menegola (RD44) or Harry Cunningham (RD93!).

So the opportunity was still there to find topline players. Tasmania is highly unlikely to scoop the pool just because it gets draft concessions.

In the meantime we have the 2024, 2025 and 2026 drafts to improve our list before Tassie has a bite.

We have a full hand this year. The first-round picks of Brisbane, Carlton and Gold Coast are likely to be up for grabs. With two second-rounders, three third-rounders and three fourth-rounders we have points galore to trade up. Aiming for a top-10 pick to go with our likely own top-10, plus another pick inside 20 and one or two more inside 30 is not unrealistic in what is shaping as a strong draft (would like to see some talls emerge).

Carts wants to trade Shai to improve that hand further. I'd rather see what we can get for Bakes and Graham. Maybe a late teens pick for Bakes and probably no more than a pick in the 30s for Jack. (I'd probably keep one of them anyway.)

I did the ladder predictor last night and we could finish 16th with 7 wins and a percentage of 90, knocking Dimma out of the finals in the last round. A competitive season and a blue-chip young mid coming in.

Carts is right that we don't have our next Dusty (no one does) or Cotch (does anyone? Maybe Sydney with Warner, maybe Poort with Horney-Toad at least playingwise if not leadership). But we do have what many of us think is the makings of our next core. We can draft our next champions ovee the next three years.

 

[tony_montana]

Well said, good balanced post.

I'll add, Sometimes, often, you don't know what you have until a few years later - nobody here thought Rance would develop into one of the very best backmen of all time. No one thought aSTBURY would be that good, or Grimes or Houli etc etc etc. A few astute trades and FA's and all of a sudden you have a good blend of class, and work horses. We will learn a lot about our list this season and with a strong draft hand we could finish 2024 feeling pretty bullish about our list moving fwd.

 

[spook]

Well said, good balanced post.

I'll add, Sometimes, often, you don't know what you have until a few years later - nobody here thought Rance would develop into one of the very best backmen of all time. No one thought aSTBURY would be that good, or Grimes or Houli etc etc etc. A few astute trades and FA's and all of a sudden you have a good blend of class, and work horses. We will learn a lot about our list this season and with a strong draft hand we could finish 2024 feeling pretty bullish about our list moving fwd.

We got Balta at 25, Shai at 29. We need to get the recruiting manager appointment right.

 

[mrposhman]

We all have to remember that Carter does the "implosion model" better than anyone else. Anyone remember the melt in 2017 after the Saints loss. We'd have never won 3 premierships in 4 years with Carter as our list boss.

Trading out Bolton is a ludicrous assumption, we can rebound quickly with our draft hand. Add Adelaide to your list of teams wanting to trade back for draft points and you have at least Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton and Gold Coast wanting to trade back in the draft. I agree with you on Baker, if there is 1 that we trade out, its potentially him. High value, and we probably aren't getting the best of him as we aren't playing him in his best position. Graham is a possible too, he's a free agent so potentially we could get more than a trade value for him, if teams prioritise his salary over giving up draft picks. I'm a big fan of both players BUT if we want to trade players to get a better draft hand to find our next Dustys's, Cotch's, Jacks then you do that with your nuxt rung down, not your Grade A players.

I also did a more pessimistic ladder predicter after losing both of our opening games and funnily enough had us finishing 16th too. If we could turn our current picks, Baker and Graham into 2 top 10's and potentially a couple between 11 and 20 then we would be in a great spot, and we would certainly have the currency for that IMO.

I've previously commented that I see this list build as more of a reverse listbuild compared to what we built to get our premierships. ie. our premierships were built on getting top 10 draft picks (and a few important ones in the teens) to build the basis of our premiership team, there doesn't have to be that many. The only top 5 draft picks we had in our premiership teams (that we had drafted) were Dusty and Cotch, the others were later picks or trades (Prestia and then Lynch as a FA). We can replace the Dusty / Cotch picks potentially in 1 draft and if we are lucky adding some of those other top 20 picks that supplement (ala Rance / Jack / Vlastuin etc).

I certainly don't think our list is in as bad a shape as some do, very similar viewpoints to at other times when "the world is collapsing around us" types brought it up in the past. We have a solid group that will take us forward over the next 5 years or so, we just need to add the additional superstar talent on that list to supplement the likes of Shai in that squad.

 

[Leysy Days]

One important thing to remember - Tassie's concessions will be very different to what GWS/GC got.

The club and the AFL dont want a team full of kids (now matter how talented) with little quality experience getting thumped week after week in early years. Everyone wants them to be competitive from the start and not so worried about building a supposed super team.

They are getting $$$ outside the cap to be used as a sign-on bonus to attract players.

But more importantly a large volume of the suite of draft picks will have to be mandatorily traded. i.e. Say 10 of first 20 picks go to Tas -half of them must be traded including 5 x top 10 for example.

What does this mean? Who will Tassie target? Number one will be Tasmanians as they will be more likely to come but will get better public buy-in to the team. Having a Tasmanian on the team will be an advantage in one aspect as you will get potentially big overs. For say a Mansell if a core footballer by then. Similar to what North did when using picks for Fisher and Stephens from memory.

Also if you are in a rebuild at that time it could actually be an advantage, firstly players will be more likely to leave. Those clubs will also be more likely to want to trade. Look at say West Coast if Tas were coming in this year. They would want to trade guys like McGovern, Yeo or even get a Kelly and Barrass off the books (top 10 picks) if they were getting overs in return from a club that must trade high picks.

Food for thought and a big chance for clubs with the best list managers.

 

[Carter]

We all have to remember that Carter does the "implosion model" better than anyone else. Anyone remember the melt in 2017 after the Saints loss. We'd have never won 3 premierships in 4 years with Carter as our list boss.

Phew! Bullet dodged for RFC as I am just a mug from the terraces speculating on a fan forum.

Posh I cannot remember what I said to you that rankled you so but I sincerely apologise !

 

[RoarEmotion]

Can we see the AFL basically allowing Tassie to pick a player from every other clubs' list (without compensation) in addition to one year of massive draft concession.

Basically like a free agency for any player (maybe outside 1-3 year players and top 5 in B&F or something)

Until you know the rules, its a fair bit of guesswork to know how to plan for it. Assuming it will be the same as previously done is highly risky.

 

[Carter]

If we could turn our current picks, Baker and Graham into 2 top 10's and potentially a couple between 11 and 20 then we would be in a great spot, and we would certainly have the currency for that IMO.

Sorry Posh but this just ain’t gonna happen. Dream land.

Well Shai of what we need to crack open the top ten.

 

[mrposhman]

Phew! Bullet dodged for RFC as I am just a mug from the terraces speculating on a fan forum.

Posh I cannot remember what I said to you that rankled you so but I sincerely apologise !

Haha you don't rankle me. It was a comment that you do tend to jump to the nuclear option (I'm on the footy board so nobody come at me with Dutton comments) when things don't go well. It was more a comment that we need to take the emotion out of where we are and really assess. I personally don't think we are in as bad a position as we think we are.

We can get the midfield sorted potentially in 1 draft, just leaves the biggest elephant in the room and thats tall forwards.

 

[RoarEmotion]

We can get the midfield sorted potentially in 1 draft, just leaves the biggest elephant in the room and thats tall forwards.

Yep we will need to do a Sydney and get a Lockett / Franklin given where our list is right now.
(We already did it once with Lynch)

 

[Carter]

We can get the midfield sorted potentially in 1 draft

On this we are in perfect agreement.

Just a question of how ambitious we would like to be.

 

[Carter]

Thanks for Spooker for setting this up in such balanced fashion.

 

[mrposhman]

Sorry Posh but this just ain’t gonna happen.

Well Shai of what we need to crack open the top ten.

It could be done.

All based on assumed finishing positions, but lets say we finish 16th, West Coast finish bottom and Freo finish 13th (obviously people will have finishing positions different but this is a guide that we aren't far off what we want).

So our picks (I haven't allowed for priority picks here I've just tried to keep it simple), become 3, 21, 24, 37, 39, 42, 57, 66 and 68. Not a bad start.

I've speculated above to potentially trade Bakes. Freo seem like the most obvious one if he chooses to leave, lets say they use Ports or the Pies pick to do so (they won't use their own), that might be Pick 15. Graham moves to Port, they offer him a bit overs so we don't match, lets say we get a 2nd rounder (band 3), that would be Pick 22.

So we now have Picks 3, 15, 21, 22, 24, 37, 39, 42, 57, 66 and 68.

They are a number of teams that will try and trade back to gain more points for their academy / father sons. Adelaide / Carlton / Brisbane and Gold Coast are the most obvious ones currently. Adelaide will either try and trade up (I doubt they will manage to get into the top 5), so will look to trade back behind a Welch bid. Carlton a bit more tricky, depends how the Camp twins go, are they 2nd rounders? 1st rounders? This year will likely figure that out, but lets say we trade for Adelaides 1st.

Thats Pick 8 in my assumed model (based on expected finishing positions - I did a ladder predictor), maybe we trade 15 and 22 for Pick 8.
If Carlton are worried about a 1st round bid for one of the twins, they will likely look to trade back, so assuming Pick 14, maybe we can trade those later picks, 37, 39, 42, 57, 66 and 68 or a combination of them to get it.

Thats only a couple of trades and could leave us with Picks 3, 8, 14, 21 and 24 or something around there. Maybe we could try Brisbane for the other one, or we might be happy with 5 in the top 25 with 2 in the top 10.

It can be done with what we've got and not require us to trade Shai out.

 

[mrposhman]

On this we are in perfect agreement.

Just a question of how ambitious we would like to be.

Hopefully we are aggressive at trade period. This is where Blair earns his money.

 

[spook]

The other thing to remember is we have two million-dollar contracts coming out of the cap in the next couple of years. Hopefully Balta will demand one of them, but Shai is already signed to the age of 30 at what - 700k? - per year. Hopefully he's still worth that post-30 but he won't be getting a mil - or if he does the cap will have risen relative to salary.

So we'll have cash to go after a free agent or two before Tassie gets them. We're still a destination club, but if we're seen to return to cellar-dwellers you can bet the 'bad old Richmond' narrative will be pushed hard by the media.

 

[Carter]

It could be done.

All based on assumed finishing positions, but lets say we finish 16th, West Coast finish bottom and Freo finish 13th (obviously people will have finishing positions different but this is a guide that we aren't far off what we want).

So our picks (I haven't allowed for priority picks here I've just tried to keep it simple), become 3, 21, 24, 37, 39, 42, 57, 66 and 68. Not a bad start.

I've speculated above to potentially trade Bakes. Freo seem like the most obvious one if he chooses to leave, lets say they use Ports or the Pies pick to do so (they won't use their own), that might be Pick 15. Graham moves to Port, they offer him a bit overs so we don't match, lets say we get a 2nd rounder (band 3), that would be Pick 22.

So we now have Picks 3, 15, 21, 22, 24, 37, 39, 42, 57, 66 and 68.

They are a number of teams that will try and trade back to gain more points for their academy / father sons. Adelaide / Carlton / Brisbane and Gold Coast are the most obvious ones currently. Adelaide will either try and trade up (I doubt they will manage to get into the top 5), so will look to trade back behind a Welch bid. Carlton a bit more tricky, depends how the Camp twins go, are they 2nd rounders? 1st rounders? This year will likely figure that out, but lets say we trade for Adelaides 1st.

Thats Pick 8 in my assumed model (based on expected finishing positions - I did a ladder predictor), maybe we trade 15 and 22 for Pick 8.
If Carlton are worried about a 1st round bid for one of the twins, they will likely look to trade back, so assuming Pick 14, maybe we can trade those later picks, 37, 39, 42, 57, 66 and 68 or a combination of them to get it.

Thats only a couple of trades and could leave us with Picks 3, 8, 14, 21 and 24 or something around there. Maybe we could try Brisbane for the other one, or we might be happy with 5 in the top 25 with 2 in the top 10.

It can be done with what we've got and not require us to trade Shai out.

Well laid out but it still just has a little bit of best case scenario about it.

I’d love it to happen though.

 

[Carter]

Remember also the AFL hates Richmond and the secret herbs and spices will more likely be the KFC variety than Michelin star coq au vin

 

[mrposhman]

Well laid out but it still just has a little bit of best case scenario about it.

I’d love it to happen though.

Correct its probably close to the best case scenario from a draft perspective, ie we finish bottom 3 with West Coast, Freo don't make finals). Final finishing positions may make that sort of scenario much harder, maybe none of the top 10 picks are held by teams with academy / father sons, or we perform strongly for the rest of the year and finish just outside finals so getting a Pick 8-10 instead of 3.

Lots of water to go under the bridge, but just an example of how we potentially could get there.

 

[year of the tiger]

Well, from these posts it looks like season 2024 is over, done and dusted after 2 games……

All I know is 2 things:

first - it’s dam hard to trade up into the top 10, particularly with picks from 20 onwards. this is made harder as I wouldn’t expect all those teams listed above all finishing outside the top 10 pick positions.

secondly - we have so far played 6 competitive qtrs out of 8, so right now I am still gunning for a competitive season as we are playing above a standard that I thought possible 3 weeks ago. Will we make the 8, won’t say yes but certainly won’t say no either.

 

[Leysy Days]

The other thing to remember is we have two million-dollar contracts coming out of the cap in the next couple of years. Hopefully Balta will demand one of them, but Shai is already signed to the age of 30 at what - 700k? - per year. Hopefully he's still worth that post-30 but he won't be getting a mil - or if he does the cap will have risen relative to salary.

So we'll have cash to go after a free agent or two before Tassie gets them. We're still a destination club, but if we're seen to return to cellar-dwellers you can bet the 'bad old Richmond' narrative will be pushed hard by the media.

Shai's on over a million this year until 2028