2014 Hindsight Draft

[bullus_hit]

This is beyond dispute. And the crazy thing Bully is that these late picks & rookie picks are almost guilt free if taken on untried kids.

Would you or I be furious if Chol or Cal Moore don't make it? I suspect not because the process is sound.

No I wouldn't be upset in the slightest. As for Chol, this has been Frank's best rookie selection for ten years but it's certainly been a long time coming. Going from a plodder like Browne to an athletic mobile tall has at least reassured me that the mindset has changed. Could be a case of too little, too late, but at least we have a great prospect entering the system.

As for Callum Moore, I thought long and hard about selecting him myself, the two big issues for me was firstly, he's an overage kid who didn't dominate the carnival as I expected, and secondly, he possesses a very awkward kicking action which will require some immediate remedial work. Given he's a former rugby player I'm happy enough to treat him like an Irish convert and hope he's a quick learner. If he can make a swift transition then I believe we have an excellent prospect who plays tall but has some excellent qualities at ground level. I could see him modeling himself on Alex Rance, another who had to work tirelessly on his disposal. I think the improvement in Rance is reason enough to give him a decent chance at making the grade.

Been some good posting bullus

Some very good posting Bullus. I have enjoyed reading your insights. Well done on your drafting as well. We would be a stronger team if you had been in charge of the recruiting department.

Cheers

 

[bullus_hit]

The Ditch Blair Project

I'll concede I was a big fan of Hartley and his initial recruiting, Maric was a very astute selection, Grigg a nice trade to clean up the Collins mess and there was some cunning manouvering to rid ourselves of Tambling. Incidentally, those picks were largely squandered by Jackson with the Elton, McDonald and McIntosh selections. I'll even give Chaplin a big tick given he cost us nothing and Houli was another player who has proven his worth. So far, so good.

Fast forward a couple of years and Hartley has done absolutely nothing to enhance the list, in fact he's clogged up the production line in a similar manner to Jackson with his retread obsession.

Fail #1 (2012) - There's no doubting that Chris Knights is a talented footballer but he also came with plenty of baggage on the injury front. His last three seasons at Adelaide produced 5, 16 & 5 games respectively. At Richmond this trend continued with 5 games in his first season and 1 game in his second. Poor due diligence and a reluctance to accept that some players are injury prone cost the club half a million dollars and prevented a junior from being recruited.

Fail #2 (2013) - Much like Knights, Shaun Hampson is an injury waiting to happen, his footablling ability can also be called into question. 36 games his in last 4 seasons at Carlton should have been a warning sign. We now have a major crisis with two ruckmen clearly on their way out and very little to play with at the trade table.

Fail #3 (2014) - Taylor Hunt was delisted by Geelong and that should have been good enough in the scheme of things, unfortunately this just follows the great tradition of believing we can resurrect the dead.

Fail #4 (2015) - Chris Yarran came to the club out of shape and with some significant injury worries. With the season just about done and dusted, our forfeited second rounder will probably be a top 25 pick and we have also given up the chance to secure players such as Marcus Adams, Harley Balic, Riley Bonner & Rhys Mathieson. As mentioned before, we also don't have any leverage to trade for a ruckman. Top ups like Yarran are fine for finals contenders but once again we have overrated the list.

Fail #5 (2012-2015) - We have ignored some very good players in the free agency market, Hartley's obsession with the bargain basement bin has seen us ignore guys like Betts, Higgins, Suckling, Leuenberger, Waite & Dal Santo, all of whom would have been obtainable at the right price. Instead we have had to field bush footballers like Steve Morris and continually play discards from other clubs.

From my perspective 2 very good years cannot compensate for the poor performance of the past 4. Every trade period we appear to be asleep at the wheel, but that aside, we have failed to bridge the gap through free agency, something which has kept the Kangaroos as a top 4 contender and ensured we remain their September b!tches. Much like Jackson, I think four years of failure is four too many. Time to clear the decks.

 

[uhuh uhuh]

The Ditch Blair Project

I'll concede I was a big fan of Hartley and his initial recruiting, Maric was a very astute selection, Grigg a nice trade to clean up the Collins mess and there was some cunning manouvering to rid ourselves of Tambling. Incidentally, those picks were largely squandered by Jackson with the Elton, McDonald and McIntosh selections. I'll even give Chaplin a big tick given he cost us nothing and Houli was another player who has proven his worth. So far, so good.

Fast forward a couple of years and Hartley has done absolutely nothing to enhance the list, in fact he's clogged up the production line in a similar manner to Jackson with his retread obsession.

Fail #1 (2012) - There's no doubting that Chris Knights is a talented footballer but he also came with plenty of baggage on the injury front. His last three seasons at Adelaide produced 5, 16 & 5 games respectively. At Richmond this trend continued with 5 games in his first season and 1 game in his second. Poor due diligence and a reluctance to accept that some players are injury prone cost the club half a million dollars and prevented a junior from being recruited.

Fail #2 (2013) - Much like Knights, Shaun Hampson is an injury waiting to happen, his footablling ability can also be called into question. 36 games his in last 4 seasons at Carlton should have been a warning sign. We now have a major crisis with two ruckmen clearly on their way out and very little to play with at the trade table.

Fail #3 (2014) - Taylor Hunt was delisted by Geelong and that should have been good enough in the scheme of things, unfortunately this just follows the great tradition of believing we can resurrect the dead.

Fail #4 (2015) - Chris Yarran came to the club out of shape and with some significant injury worries. With the season just about done and dusted, our forfeited second rounder will probably be a top 25 pick and we have also given up the chance to secure players such as Marcus Adams, Harley Balic, Riley Bonner & Rhys Mathieson. As mentioned before, we also don't have any leverage to trade for a ruckman. Top ups like Yarran are fine for finals contenders but once again we have overrated the list.

Fail #5 (2012-2015) - We have ignored some very good players in the free agency market, Hartley's obsession with the bargain basement bin has seen us ignore guys like Betts, Higgins, Suckling, Leuenberger, Waite & Dal Santo, all of whom would have been obtainable at the right price. Instead we have had to field bush footballers like Steve Morris and continually play discards from other clubs.

From my perspective 2 very good years cannot compensate for the poor performance of the past 4. Every trade period we appear to be asleep at the wheel, but that aside, we have failed to bridge the gap through free agency, something which has kept the Kangaroos as a top 4 contender and ensured we remain their September b!tches. Much like Jackson, I think four years of failure is four too many. Time to clear the decks.

Excellent assessment bully

Who can we get to replace them, who is the best recruiting expert on the market

 

[mtench]

Excellent assessment bully

Who can we get to replace them, who is the best recruiting expert on the market

Doesn't matter if they're available make them an offer they can't refuse!!

 

[bullus_hit]

Excellent assessment bully

Who can we get to replace them, who is the best recruiting expert on the market

Spend money here and it will pay for itself. The other two clubs that have done exceedingly well have been the Kangas & the Dogs, different approaches but hard to fault either model. And contrary to common belief, the Doggies have largely built their team on the back of smart drafting at the deep end, guys like Daniel (46), Easton Wood (43), Tory Dickson (57), Jason Johannisen (rookie), Luke Dahlhaus (rookie), Tom Campbell (rookie) and Lin Jong (rookie).

Here's an interesting comparison.

WESTERN BULLDOGS TOP-20 PICKS

Tom Boyd (No.1, 2013) Ex-GWS Giants

Marcus Bontempelli (No.4, 2013)

Jake Stringer (No.5, 2012)

Jackson Macrae (No.6, 2012)

Clay Smith (No.17, 2011)

Will Minson (No.20, 2002)

Robert Murphy (No.13, 1999)

RICHMOND’S TOP-20 PICKS

Daniel Rioli (No. 17, 2015)

Corey Ellis (No.12, 2014)

Ben Lennon (No.12, 2013)

Nick Vlastuin (No.9, 2012)

Brandon Ellis (No.15, 2011)

Reece Conca (No.6, 2010)

Dustin Martin (No.3, 2009)

Andrew Moore (No.9, 2009) Ex-Port Adelaide

Ben Griffiths (No.19, 2009)

Chris Yarran (No.6, 2008) Ex-Carlton

Ty Vickery (No.8, 2008)

Trent Cotchin (No.2, 2007)

Alex Rance (No.18, 2007)

Jack Riewoldt (No.13, 2006)

Shaun Hampson (No.17, 2006) Ex-Carlton

Shaun Grigg (No.19, 2006)

Brett Deledio (No.1, 2004)

Troy Chaplin (No.15, 2003) Ex-Port Adelaide

 

[spook]

The Ditch Blair Project

Gold. And spot on. Sack Blair, retiire FJ. Make a massive play for someone like Wright or Dalrymple, and resource the *smile* out of them.

 

[Dev Tiger]

Some very clear examples of problems with our list management and recruiting. The question is if the club will accept the problem and follow your advice. The problem is that we seem to have a board that doesn't have any understanding of football issues and will accept whatever Benny Gale tells them. Benny has a conflict between doing what is best for the club and protecting his own highly paid position. He has been a strong supporter of the Hardwick/Jackson/Hartley era so it will take a big about face for him to admit they have led the club down the wrong path.

The more likely scenario is that they continue blindly down the same path before they are eventually removed by a board challenge. If we don't acquire a second to none list management team we are doomed to continue the cycle of failure. It is over to you Benny. You have done a great job off the field. Now you need to show you can be ruthless in making football decisions for the betterment of the club. If you can't you should have just taken the NRL job.

 

[Scoop]

Get Bucky. He'll know exactly what is happening at the Hawks & what is required resource wise.

But we must make changes now. Right now.

 

[toby64]

Get Bucky. He'll know exactly what is happening at the Hawks & what is required resource wise.

But we must make changes now. Right now.

God you would hope they are onto this. If the past 5 weeks hasn't woken em up to the fact we need to make wholesale changes in this area nothing will. I have little confidence in the clubs ability to make good decisions at the moment.

 

[Leysy Days]

Has the mature-age experiment stunted Richmond's growth?
Nathan Schmook
April 24, 2016 10:00 AM

AFL 2016 Rd 03 - Richmond v Adelaide
Ben Lennon was dropped by Damien Hardwick this week
WHEN Richmond coach Damien Hardwick went on radio two weeks ago to explain his "half-step back" strategy, Ben Lennon and Corey Ellis were two players he said the club needed to stick with at selection.

"We'll continue to invest in those two boys … they're probably the little half-step back that we take," he said.

They were three little words that were analysed to their core, but the coach's reasoning made sense. He had invested in a lot of mature-age talent and the time had come to back in youth.

The question now being asked is why, two weeks on, is Lennon out of the team? And has an aggressive mature-age strategy stunted the growth of the Tigers' draftees?

Questioning draft selections in hindsight can be like shooting fish in a barrel, but the Tigers' strategy to use free agency and mature-age recruiting the way they have deserves scrutiny after their 1-3 start to the season.

Dating back to the end of 2012, the club's last exchange period before their first finals series under Hardwick, Richmond has recruited the following:

• Eight players via trade and free agency (aged 22-29)
• Three mature-age draftees (aged 22-24)
• Eight mature-age rookies (aged 23-30)

That's a total of 19 mature-age players – eight of whom have since retired or been delisted – who have collectively played 288 games for the club since round one, 2013.

In the same period they have gone to the NAB AFL Draft and recruited 12 players (excluding mature-age selections).

That dozen, which includes prized picks Lennon and Ellis, has combined for 145 games – half the output of the ready-made players the club has brought in.

It's a strategy that has helped get Richmond to three straight finals series, but recycled talent hasn't helped the club take the next step.

Recycled players who have come and gone in the past three seasons include Aaron Edwards, Nathan Gordon, Ricky Petterd, Matt Thomas, Sam Lonergan and Todd Banfield.

Aaron Edwards managed just 12 games in his two years at Richmond. Picture: AFL Media


Former Adelaide half-forward Chris Knights stands aside as a player Richmond brought in who could have been a success if not for repeated knee, quad and hamstring injuries.

The only recycled players from 2013-2015 selected in Richmond's round five squad to face Melbourne are Troy Chaplin and Sam Lloyd.

There has clearly been a shift in the Tigers' selection in recent weeks and – Lennon's omission aside – talented young players seems to be a priority.

"Ellis played his best game for the club last week and in (Connor) Menadue we've found a player," Hardwick said this week.

"Kamdyn McIntosh down back has been a revelation and Daniel Rioli is an excitement machine.

"We've got some really exciting talent in the side."

All would stay in the team, Hardwick said, as long as their "form continues to press their credibility".

Hardwick can't pick players who aren't ready, and injury has played a big role in keeping draftees like Nathan Drummond out of the team.

Likewise, if tall forward Liam McBean hasn't done enough to knock down the door at selection then there is no requirement on the match committee to select him.

But the numbers don't lie and the Tigers have clearly invested more game time in their mature-age picks than their talented teenagers.

Had it been the other way around they might not have three consecutive elimination finals to their name, but they may find themselves in a better position four rounds into this season.

FREE AGENT/TRADE GAMES POSSIBLE GAMES
Troy Chaplin 69 71
Aaron Edwards* 12 46
Shaun Hampson 19 50
Taylor Hunt 25 27
Chris Knights* 6 69
Andrew Moore 1 4
Jacob Townsend 2 4
Chris Yarran 0 4
MATURE DRAFT GAMES POSSIBLE GAMES
Sam Lloyd 23 50
Nathan Gordon* 21 46
Nathan Broad 0 4
MATURE ROOKIES GAMES POSSIBLE GAMES
Sam Lonergan* 2 23
Ricky Petterd* 30 69
Orren Stephenson* 7 46
Todd Banfield* 0 23
Anthony Miles 39 50
Kane Lambert 17 27
Matt Thomas* 15 46
Adam Marcon 0 4
* No longer at the club

That is the single truest article on why we stand where we stand leysy has seen.

Leysy will post more on that when has time.

BTW Bully, as you know leysy doesnt always agree with you, and thats normal, but ripper posting Bully, opinion backed by facts. Top work.

 

[Ridley]

Get Bucky. He'll know exactly what is happening at the Hawks & what is required resource wise.

But we must make changes now. Right now.

Yep. We must make the moves on Hartley and Jackson now. Immediately. If we put the right people in place in the next few weeks it will give them enough time to prepare for the October trade and November draft period.

But I bet we don't do it. We don't have the guts. The whale saving, tree hugging, hippies at RFC will give each other a hug, sniff the flowers and tell each other what a great job they have done in the past few years.

 

[Ridley]

BTW Bully, as you know leysy doesnt always agree with you, and thats normal, but ripper posting Bully, opinion backed by facts. Top work.

For once in his life Boozy Ways is correct.

Sensational posting from Bully. Informative and concise.

 

[tigersnake]

The Ditch Blair Project

I'll concede I was a big fan of Hartley and his initial recruiting, Maric was a very astute selection, Grigg a nice trade to clean up the Collins mess and there was some cunning manouvering to rid ourselves of Tambling. Incidentally, those picks were largely squandered by Jackson with the Elton, McDonald and McIntosh selections. I'll even give Chaplin a big tick given he cost us nothing and Houli was another player who has proven his worth. So far, so good.

Fast forward a couple of years and Hartley has done absolutely nothing to enhance the list, in fact he's clogged up the production line in a similar manner to Jackson with his retread obsession.

Fail #1 (2012) - There's no doubting that Chris Knights is a talented footballer but he also came with plenty of baggage on the injury front. His last three seasons at Adelaide produced 5, 16 & 5 games respectively. At Richmond this trend continued with 5 games in his first season and 1 game in his second. Poor due diligence and a reluctance to accept that some players are injury prone cost the club half a million dollars and prevented a junior from being recruited.

Fail #2 (2013) - Much like Knights, Shaun Hampson is an injury waiting to happen, his footablling ability can also be called into question. 36 games his in last 4 seasons at Carlton should have been a warning sign. We now have a major crisis with two ruckmen clearly on their way out and very little to play with at the trade table.

Fail #3 (2014) - Taylor Hunt was delisted by Geelong and that should have been good enough in the scheme of things, unfortunately this just follows the great tradition of believing we can resurrect the dead.

Fail #4 (2015) - Chris Yarran came to the club out of shape and with some significant injury worries. With the season just about done and dusted, our forfeited second rounder will probably be a top 25 pick and we have also given up the chance to secure players such as Marcus Adams, Harley Balic, Riley Bonner & Rhys Mathieson. As mentioned before, we also don't have any leverage to trade for a ruckman. Top ups like Yarran are fine for finals contenders but once again we have overrated the list.

Fail #5 (2012-2015) - We have ignored some very good players in the free agency market, Hartley's obsession with the bargain basement bin has seen us ignore guys like Betts, Higgins, Suckling, Leuenberger, Waite & Dal Santo, all of whom would have been obtainable at the right price. Instead we have had to field bush footballers like Steve Morris and continually play discards from other clubs.

From my perspective 2 very good years cannot compensate for the poor performance of the past 4. Every trade period we appear to be asleep at the wheel, but that aside, we have failed to bridge the gap through free agency, something which has kept the Kangaroos as a top 4 contender and ensured we remain their September b!tches. Much like Jackson, I think four years of failure is four too many. Time to clear the decks.

I basically agree. I still reckon you use extreme cases and little context, but that's just me. For example, we might have got a Bonner or Mathieson, or we might have got any number of busts that aren't unique to Frank. Also, the number 1 reason for where we're at is the compromised drafts. FJ and Hartley haven't been up to scratch, but its not all them. For me, 50-60% the compromised drafts, all the 40-50% FJ and BH.

Yarran is not a fail, at least not yet. and is not old so can't really be put in the top-up category. As for the FA's, its a fair point, but of a lot of the players you bundle-up as ammo were never going anywhere but where they went, that's just the way it is, but I agree with the broad point. You argue as if we can just shop around for FAs at will, it just doesn't work like that. There is an infinite number every year, you have to pay overs, a lot of them are go-homes. You have to be very strategic and selective, but yeah we haven't been up to scratch on it. For me, a good example is us V Hawthorn. Hawks need ready made key backs, Lake then Frawley, ie, proven performers who can mark and stop a key forward, who do we get for this list -defining move? Chaplin.

Plus you can't have it both ways, you say we have to be active, but when we act (Yarran) its a fail.

 

[bullus_hit]

I basically agree. I still reckon you use extreme cases and little context, but that's just me. For example, we might have got a Bonner or Mathieson, or we might have got any number of busts that aren't unique to Frank. Also, the number 1 reason for where we're at is the compromised drafts. FJ and Hartley haven't been up to scratch, but its not all them. For me, 50-60% the compromised drafts, all the 40-50% FJ and BH.

Yarran is not a fail, at least not yet. and is not old so can't really be put in the top-up category. As for the FA's, its a fair point, but of a lot of the players you bundle-up as ammo were never going anywhere but where they went, that's just the way it is, but I agree with the broad point. You argue as if we can just shop around for FAs at will, it just doesn't work like that. There is an infinite number every year, you have to pay overs, a lot of them are go-homes. You have to be very strategic and selective, but yeah we haven't been up to scratch on it. For me, a good example is us V Hawthorn. Hawks need ready made key backs, Lake then Frawley, ie, proven performers who can mark and stop a key forward, who do we get for this list -defining move? Chaplin.

Plus you can't have it both ways, you say we have to be active, but when we act (Yarran) its a fail.

One can't blame the compromised drafts when you look at the players selected after, for example pick 6 in 2010 was pole position to take possibly the two best players in Lynch & Heppell. Ellis was a sound selection but in 2012 & 2013, we broke the cardinal rule of drafting, don't grab flankers with premium picks. So in the wash-up, Frank has picked two flankers in Lennon & Vlastuin, with Conca arguably being a third. The compromised draft also presented us with a third pick in the Tambling trade, that player was McIntosh so we lose some and then we gain some. Stacked up against the Doggies drafting over that period we have failed to nail our late picks, that's essentially why we find ourselves in the current situation.

As for the lack of free agents, if we cannot entice players to the club then we need to change the personnel. Greg Miller was a silver tongue in that regard, we need someone of his ilk and not just a guy who is obsessed with moneyball. I have no doubt that at least some of those players I mentioned would have come over given the right price. As a case in point, if we are incapable of out-negotiating a bunch of drug cheats destined for the spoon then we have major problems.

As for Yarran, he's 25 with 3-4 years of prime football left in him. He's also the type that compliments a strong squad not a rabble like we've seen thus far. Any fair judge will realise we need to begin the rebuild now and not in 2-3 years time. Two potential 10 year players versus 4 years of Yarran? To me it's a no-brainer.

And back on Hartley, I didn't even include Moore & Townsend who are looking like busts as well. That effectively makes it 6 dud picks in a row. We can stick our heads in the sand or we can take decisive action this year, 4 years of mediocrity is enough in anyone's language.

 

[tigersnake]

I'll blame the buggery out of the compromised drafts. I agree that FJ and BH haven't been good enough, but it ain't all down to them.

Also, you look at all the picks we have stuffed up or could have done better at, and then look at the players after, as if we should have nailed them all. Nobody does, never have never will. Yes our strike rate should have been better, but this totally unforgiving hindsight optimisation (hows that for a term!) is tedious.

 

[bullus_hit]

I'll blame the buggery out of the compromised drafts. I agree that FJ and BH haven't been good enough, but it ain't all down to them.

Also, you look at all the picks we have stuffed up or could have done better at, and then look at the players after, as if we should have nailed them all. Nobody does, never have never will. Yes our strike rate should have been better, but this totally unforgiving hindsight optimisation (hows that for a term!) is tedious.

This thread has evolved due to a request by 17, it has actually taken a fair bit of time to dig up all the selections and there are drafts in which I have only nominated my preferences for the first and second round. My team isn't perfect and to be honest, some of the picks were based on the Richmond squad as opposed to the one I have cobbled together. I have also attempted to list some of the howlers ie. McKernan vs Beams/Hannebury. Feel free to rip it apart if you want.

Backs - Marcus Adams Jack Frost Bachar Houli
Half Backs - Brandon Ellis Alex Rance Adam Saad
Centre - Lachie Weller Luke Parker Rory Atkins
Half Forward - Dustin Martin Jack Darling Brett Deledio
Forwards - Lewis Taylor Jack Riewoldt Sam Reid

Onballers - Brodie Grundy Anthony Miles Trent Cotchin

Bench - Tyrone Vickery Shane Edwards Nick Graham Ryan Bastinac

Emergencies - Kane Lambert Tim Membrey Mitchell Grigg

Ruck Stocks - Ivan Maric, Shaun McKernan, Mabior Chol

Young Guns - Connor Blakley, Mitchell Hibberd, Dean Gore, Jaden McGrath, Reece McKenzie, Nick O'Kearney, Jay Kennedy-Harris, Darcy Byrne-Jones

Depth Players - Adam Marcon, Nic Newman, Shaun Grigg, Steve Johnson, Mitch Clark

State League targets - Hisham Kerbatieh, Greg Clark

 

[tigertim]

I'll blame the buggery out of the compromised drafts. I agree that FJ and BH haven't been good enough, but it ain't all down to them.

Also, you look at all the picks we have stuffed up or could have done better at, and then look at the players after, as if we should have nailed them all. Nobody does, never have never will. Yes our strike rate should have been better, but this totally unforgiving hindsight optimisation (hows that for a term!) is tedious.

I reckon blaming the compromised drafts is tedious. All other clubs bar GCS and GWS dealt with it. There was still quality players out there if you're good enough to identify them, develop them.

 

[bullus_hit]

If only Blair had consulted Tim.

Whether we go after a big fish remains to be seen but there doesn't appear too many ATM. Then it becomes a game of trying to snare someone's else's 2nd stringer eg Gawn, LOwden, Sinclair, Gorringe, Simpson etc.

 

[tigertim]

If only Blair had consulted Tim.

Pfft, Tim just uses a scattergun approach. Throws out enough names he's bound to get one right.

 

[tigersnake]

I reckon blaming the compromised drafts is tedious. All other clubs bar GCS and GWS dealt with it. There was still quality players out there if you're good enough to identify them, develop them.

Might be tedious, but doesn't make it wrong. A lot of very tedious stuff is correct. There are all sorts of ways you can argue this, you can say it was our own fault we were down, yet again, when it happened. But the fact is, the lower you were, the worse the impact. another fact is, the GC and the GWS took all the vast majority of the guns, the bankers.

They are the players that win you flags.