AFL Betting Thread | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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AFL Betting Thread

jb03

Tiger Legend
Jan 28, 2004
33,856
12,108
Melbourne
WTF is going on with the GF Quins market this year?

tigers $3.75
Cats $5
Lions $5

for the flag

by my reckoning, that should make the Tigers/Cats and Tigers/Lions Quins $10 ((3.75 X 5 / 2) + a bit)

but both Quins are $5?

the bookies have gone completely pissweak on half price GF quins this year

why?
Doesn't quite work like that. Take as an example that if Richmond are a given at 3.75, then that is the favourite out of an otherwise now 7 horse race so the runner up or other spot is taken by a team with Richmond out - so Geelong as example to fill the second spot might be now $3.5 to do that so 3.75*3.50/2=6.56. Furthermore, once the 8 is established some combinations are simply not possible.

Betfair is a better guide - best you can get from Rich/Geel quin is $7.00 There is some $8.20 about Rich/Brisbane.
 
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an_oxford_man

Tiger Champion
Nov 21, 2004
2,552
127
Doesn't quite work like that. Take as an example that if Richmond are a given at 3.75, then that is the favourite out of an otherwise now 7 horse race so the runner up or other spot is taken by a team with Richmond out - so Geelong as example to fill the second spot might be now $3.5 to do that so 3.75*3.50/2=6.56. Furthermore, once the 8 is established some combinations are simply not possible.

Betfair is a better guide - best you can get from Rich/Geel quin is $7.00 There is some $8.20 about Rich/Brisbane.
Probability is the simple world of gambling in any context isn't it, JB? Excellent work. But I think Ezy is bagging them for being *smile* weak in the premiership market which might suggest a wide field, and then gutless in the GF quinella market.
 
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eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
21,429
25,752
Doesn't quite work like that. Take as an example that if Richmond are a given at 3.75, then that is the favourite out of an otherwise now 7 horse race so the runner up or other spot is taken by a team with Richmond out - so Geelong as example to fill the second spot might be now $3.5 to do that so 3.75*3.50/2=6.56. Furthermore, once the 8 is established some combinations are simply not possible.

Betfair is a better guide - best you can get from Rich/Geel quin is $7.00 There is some $8.20 about Rich/Brisbane.

In the past 3 years, the GF market has been pretty much framed as

Side A GF odds = $4 (to make GF =$2)

side B GF odds = $10 (to make GF = $5)

there AB GF quin has been $2 x $5 + about 20% (premium because the 2 best sides can end up on the same side of the draw)

I got the GF quit in '17 and '19 at between 25 - 1 and 50 -1

the bookies have gone fully, inexplicably pissweak in 2020 on this market
 

jb03

Tiger Legend
Jan 28, 2004
33,856
12,108
Melbourne
In the past 3 years, the GF market has been pretty much framed as

Side A GF odds = $4 (to make GF =$2)

side B GF odds = $10 (to make GF = $5)

there AB GF quin has been $2 x $5 + about 20% (premium because the 2 best sides can end up on the same side of the draw)

I got the GF quit in '17 and '19 at between 25 - 1 and 50 -1

the bookies have gone fully, inexplicably pissweak in 2020 on this market
Don't want to get in an argument but that logic is flawed. And even your halving methodology is wrong - half of a $5.00 chance is $3.00 (4-1 down to 2-1).

You can use racing to understand - the logical method of assessing a place price is a third (or a quarter from the old bookies methodology) but if you had a $1.10 favourite and the second favourite was $10.00 with the rest of the field over $40 then the odds of the second favourite running a place is likely to be $1.20-$1.40, not a third or a quarter of $10.00. The footy works in a similar fashion.
 
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MD Jazz

Don't understand football? Talk to the hand.
Feb 3, 2017
13,325
13,704
If you assume the Top 4 will remain unchanged and also that they will fill the GF positions there are only 6 real possible quinella outcomes.

The Tigers combos will be shortest given our favouritism.

I think the Tigers v Port GF quinella should be the shortest..
 
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eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
21,429
25,752
Don't want to get in an argument but that logic is flawed. And even your halving methodology is wrong - half of a $5.00 chance is $3.00 (4-1 down to 2-1).

You can use racing to understand - the logical method of assessing a place price is a third (or a quarter from the old bookies methodology) but if you had a $1.10 favourite and the second favourite was $10.00 with the rest of the field over $40 then the odds of the second favourite running a place is likely to be $1.20-$1.40, not a third or a quarter of $10.00. The footy works in a similar fashion.

I take your points JB,

But it doesn't change the fact that the GF quins this year are half what they have been for the last 3 years

less than half
 

Leysy Days

Tiger Legend
Feb 26, 2004
21,331
7,933
Stop being nice about your disagreement you too. Let's see a proper barnie about bookies pricing of the AFL GF quinella.

Make some of Leysy and Tim's blues seem significant bahaha!
 

tigertim

something funny is written here
Mar 6, 2004
29,891
12,160
Stop being nice about your disagreement you too. Let's see a proper barnie about bookies pricing of the AFL GF quinella.

Make some of Leysy and Tim's blues seem significant bahaha!
Now there’s a challenge!
 

eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
21,429
25,752
Stop being nice about your disagreement you too. Let's see a proper barnie about bookies pricing of the AFL GF quinella.

Make some of Leysy and Tim's blues seem significant bahaha!

yeah what the *smile* do you know jb you good for nothing closet Collingwood *smile*.

how's that Leysy?

Seriously though, I think suggesting my logic is flawed, is flawed.

The fact that the finals are seeded removes your place price (i.e. a GF berth) argument.

and halved or not, the GF price is usually around half the premiership $ price (I agree if you say 7/2 to anyone under 40, they think your telling them the time)

I still want some explanations as to why the Quin value has vanished.

I was getting $9-$10 on likely couplings throughout the tiger dynasty, and it cant be explained away by the tigers dominance, quins without us (effectively a bookmaker donation) are halved too.

I reckon either 1. its pure bookie cynicism and they realise that dumb 20 years olds will back anything on their phone without any mathematics whatsoever

or 2. Some syndicate (like David Walsh and his eastern European friends) is working the quins

the dramatic inflation (>50%) makes me seriously suspect the latter
 
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jb03

Tiger Legend
Jan 28, 2004
33,856
12,108
Melbourne
yeah what the *smile* do you know jb you good for nothing closet Collingwood *smile*.

how's that Leysy?

Seriously though, I think suggesting my logic is flawed, is flawed.

The fact that the finals are seeded removes your place price (i.e. a GF berth) argument.

and halved or not, the GF price is usually around half the premiership $ price (I agree if you say 7/2 to anyone under 40, they think your telling them the time)

I still want some explanations as to why the Quin value has vanished.

I was getting $9-$10 on likely couplings throughout the tiger dynasty, and it cant be explained away by the tigers dominance, quins without us (effectively a bookmaker donation) are halved too.

I reckon either 1. its pure bookie cynicism and they realise that dumb 20 years olds will back anything on their phone without any mathematics whatsoever

or 2. Some syndicate (like David Walsh and his eastern European friends) is working the quins

the dramatic inflation (>50%) makes me seriously suspect the latter

I would need the @The Big Richo to list out all the errors in that post
 
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jb03

Tiger Legend
Jan 28, 2004
33,856
12,108
Melbourne
Special shout out to @spook who suggested the Rich Brissie GF quinella 2 or 3 months ago. Took the 30s and 28s on offer Betfair but alas it wasn't to be
 
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spook

Kick the f*ckin' goal
Jun 18, 2007
21,909
26,406
Melbourne
Special shout out to @spook who suggested the Rich Brissie GF quinella 2 or 3 months ago. Took the 30s and 28s on offer Betfair but alas it wasn't to be
I also laid it off for guaranteed profit, and backed the Richmond-Geelong quinella, and had a little on Geelong to win the flag at $8 to go with my bet on Richmond at $10.

Us beating Geelong in the GF was my best result, followed by us beating Brisbane, then us beating anyone else, then Geelong beating us, then Geelong beating anyone. I've done well, I reckon!
 
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Al Bundy

Premiers 2017, 2019, 2020 ...2021?
Aug 27, 2003
7,141
616
Melbourne
I wondered and asked what were the odds for a manual bet for Tiges to go Back to back ($6.70/1)
Odds for a 3-peat $~about $27/1)

Markets are nervous on how good we are. Made me a touch more confident for tmrw :)
BUMP..

Just rang Sportsbet, girl was laughing and congratulating me. They are paying out the B2B today.

My 3 Peat bet is still live (2 legs completed)

Go TIGES ! How sweet this one was

(Not a big punter, small bets for fun, max $10. But gezz feels so good)
 
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eZyT

Tiger Legend
Jun 28, 2019
21,429
25,752
BUMP..

Just rang Sportsbet, girl was laughing and congratulating me. They are paying out the B2B today.

My 3 Peat bet is still live (2 legs completed)

Go TIGES ! How sweet this one was

(Not a big punter, small bets for fun, max $10. But gezz feels so good)

great stuff Al.

I'm announcing a record annual punting profit.

I think I may have announced my 2017 annual profit in The London?

up around 65% on '17 and 80% on '19.

I like the gradient of this graph
 
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