Doesn't quite work like that. Take as an example that if Richmond are a given at 3.75, then that is the favourite out of an otherwise now 7 horse race so the runner up or other spot is taken by a team with Richmond out - so Geelong as example to fill the second spot might be now $3.5 to do that so 3.75*3.50/2=6.56. Furthermore, once the 8 is established some combinations are simply not possible.WTF is going on with the GF Quins market this year?
tigers $3.75
Cats $5
Lions $5
for the flag
by my reckoning, that should make the Tigers/Cats and Tigers/Lions Quins $10 ((3.75 X 5 / 2) + a bit)
but both Quins are $5?
the bookies have gone completely pissweak on half price GF quins this year
why?
Probability is the simple world of gambling in any context isn't it, JB? Excellent work. But I think Ezy is bagging them for being *smile* weak in the premiership market which might suggest a wide field, and then gutless in the GF quinella market.Doesn't quite work like that. Take as an example that if Richmond are a given at 3.75, then that is the favourite out of an otherwise now 7 horse race so the runner up or other spot is taken by a team with Richmond out - so Geelong as example to fill the second spot might be now $3.5 to do that so 3.75*3.50/2=6.56. Furthermore, once the 8 is established some combinations are simply not possible.
Betfair is a better guide - best you can get from Rich/Geel quin is $7.00 There is some $8.20 about Rich/Brisbane.
Doesn't quite work like that. Take as an example that if Richmond are a given at 3.75, then that is the favourite out of an otherwise now 7 horse race so the runner up or other spot is taken by a team with Richmond out - so Geelong as example to fill the second spot might be now $3.5 to do that so 3.75*3.50/2=6.56. Furthermore, once the 8 is established some combinations are simply not possible.
Betfair is a better guide - best you can get from Rich/Geel quin is $7.00 There is some $8.20 about Rich/Brisbane.
Don't want to get in an argument but that logic is flawed. And even your halving methodology is wrong - half of a $5.00 chance is $3.00 (4-1 down to 2-1).In the past 3 years, the GF market has been pretty much framed as
Side A GF odds = $4 (to make GF =$2)
side B GF odds = $10 (to make GF = $5)
there AB GF quin has been $2 x $5 + about 20% (premium because the 2 best sides can end up on the same side of the draw)
I got the GF quit in '17 and '19 at between 25 - 1 and 50 -1
the bookies have gone fully, inexplicably pissweak in 2020 on this market
Don't want to get in an argument but that logic is flawed. And even your halving methodology is wrong - half of a $5.00 chance is $3.00 (4-1 down to 2-1).
You can use racing to understand - the logical method of assessing a place price is a third (or a quarter from the old bookies methodology) but if you had a $1.10 favourite and the second favourite was $10.00 with the rest of the field over $40 then the odds of the second favourite running a place is likely to be $1.20-$1.40, not a third or a quarter of $10.00. The footy works in a similar fashion.
Now there’s a challenge!Stop being nice about your disagreement you too. Let's see a proper barnie about bookies pricing of the AFL GF quinella.
Make some of Leysy and Tim's blues seem significant bahaha!
Stop being nice about your disagreement you too. Let's see a proper barnie about bookies pricing of the AFL GF quinella.
Make some of Leysy and Tim's blues seem significant bahaha!
yeah what the *smile* do you know jb you good for nothing closet Collingwood *smile*.
how's that Leysy?
Seriously though, I think suggesting my logic is flawed, is flawed.
The fact that the finals are seeded removes your place price (i.e. a GF berth) argument.
and halved or not, the GF price is usually around half the premiership $ price (I agree if you say 7/2 to anyone under 40, they think your telling them the time)
I still want some explanations as to why the Quin value has vanished.
I was getting $9-$10 on likely couplings throughout the tiger dynasty, and it cant be explained away by the tigers dominance, quins without us (effectively a bookmaker donation) are halved too.
I reckon either 1. its pure bookie cynicism and they realise that dumb 20 years olds will back anything on their phone without any mathematics whatsoever
or 2. Some syndicate (like David Walsh and his eastern European friends) is working the quins
the dramatic inflation (>50%) makes me seriously suspect the latter
A good bet, Dusty might be a problem.Took the $101 on Jack Graham to get the three votes v Adelaide. On Sportsbet.
Took the $101 on Jack Graham to get the three votes v Adelaide. On Sportsbet.
I also laid it off for guaranteed profit, and backed the Richmond-Geelong quinella, and had a little on Geelong to win the flag at $8 to go with my bet on Richmond at $10.Special shout out to @spook who suggested the Rich Brissie GF quinella 2 or 3 months ago. Took the 30s and 28s on offer Betfair but alas it wasn't to be
BUMP..I wondered and asked what were the odds for a manual bet for Tiges to go Back to back ($6.70/1)
Odds for a 3-peat $~about $27/1)
Markets are nervous on how good we are. Made me a touch more confident for tmrw
BUMP..
Just rang Sportsbet, girl was laughing and congratulating me. They are paying out the B2B today.
My 3 Peat bet is still live (2 legs completed)
Go TIGES ! How sweet this one was
(Not a big punter, small bets for fun, max $10. But gezz feels so good)