Coronavirus

[pete and tys]

Yes, but it does not tell you that many of the dead died of natural causes from advanced age and associated morbidity who also had covid.
There are no stats available to the public but it is a fact, just can't give numbers.
In Tassie, the first death of this wave was aged 90 with many severe co morbidities in a nursing home. Covid was in the home and she tested positive but had no, zero, covid respiratory symptoms, assume she was vaccinated, so she died of natural causes but is recorded as a covid death.
This is what I was posting a few days ago.
My daughter is an infection control nurse at a large Melbourne public hospital. She confirms that almost everyone in ICU who is sick with covid and some of whom die from covid, are unvaccinated.
The rest in ICU are sick from other natural causes and because around 1 in 25 of all Australians have covid, more in the Eastern states, perhaps 1 in 20 , some of these will die whilst covid positive, but vaccinated and not dying from covid at all.
The figures are deceiving...Omicron is killing the aged and frail unvaccinated almost exclusively but is not killing healthy vaccinated people. There are still some aged and frail vaccinated who are dying from/ with covid. We are not told the breakdown but it is as I have written here....confirmed by a nurse on the wards.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Yes, but it does not tell you that many of the dead died of natural causes from advanced age and associated morbidity who also had covid.
There are no stats available to the public but it is a fact, just can't give numbers.

Many of these victims were in their 50s & 60s. I think you're well wide of the mark with this line of thinking.

 

[MB78]

Some really good trends starting to come out of the data/

I've been monitoring the hospitalisation % over the number of active cases (active cases on a 1 week lag). We were tracking fairly consistently on that metric at between 2.5-3%, but since the start of Jan this has declined to a current level of 0.5%, indicating far fewer people are getting sick enough to enter hospitals. We should be fairly comfortable with the hospitalisation number, but a question mark around active cases as fewer cases potentially being reported. From a stats perspective this is good, as if active cases were higher then we would actually see further declines in this ratio.

We can see this particularly affecting the last week or so, we have seen hospitalistations stabilise, 15th Jan we had 1,054 in hospital in VIC, now at 1,029, 4 days showing increases, 3 days showing decreases in that time, so potentially we may have peaked from a hospitalisation level. Thats not to say it will decrease and take pressure off the health service but hopefully this puts a cap on hospitalisation levels at least for the time being.

Yes, but it does not tell you that many of the dead died of natural causes from advanced age and associated morbidity who also had covid.
There are no stats available to the public but it is a fact, just can't give numbers.
In Tassie, the first death of this wave was aged 90 with many severe co morbidities in a nursing home. Covid was in the home and she tested positive but had no, zero, covid respiratory symptoms, assume she was vaccinated, so she died of natural causes but is recorded as a covid death.
This is what I was posting a few days ago.
My daughter is an infection control nurse at a large Melbourne public hospital. She confirms that almost everyone in ICU who is sick with covid and some of whom die from covid, are unvaccinated.
The rest in ICU are sick from other natural causes and because around 1 in 25 of all Australians have covid, more in the Eastern states, perhaps 1 in 20 , some of these will die whilst covid positive, but vaccinated and not dying from covid at all.
The figures are deceiving...Omicron is killing the aged and frail unvaccinated almost exclusively but is not killing healthy vaccinated people. There are still some aged and frail vaccinated who are dying from/ with covid. We are not told the breakdown but it is as I have written here....confirmed by a nurse on the wards.

Exactly. Look at everything in full context. People in palliative care are getting Covid and being put into these statistics.


ToO is obsessed with NSW.

 

[Tigers of Old]

ToO is obsessed with NSW.

Sure am. Our problems stemmed from that reckless state seeding it here.

 

[MB78]

This is the context we have to look at things.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1484858404707663875

 

[Harry]

Sure am. Our problems stemmed from that reckless state seeding it here.

True but Dan's done very little about it.

 

[Tigers of Old]

This is the context we have to look at things.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1484858404707663875

I'm all for kids returning to school. It's important.
That said there's going to be fallout once the infections inevitably rise again.
Especially with so few still triple vaxxed.

True but Dan's done very little about it.

Maybe you forgot we locked down for a long time but with a cowboy neighbour who let Omicron RIP it's impossible to hold back the dam forever.
I'm sure he'd prefer Victoria to be in WA's situation rather than where we are now.

 

[pete and tys]

Many of these victims were in their 50s & 60s. I think you're well wide of the mark with this line of thinking.

They would be unvaccinated or inadequately vaccinated with multiple co morbidities.
Omicron does not appear to kill healthy vaccinated people .....there will of course be exceptions sadly.
Not down playing covid ,just trying to get clarity and accuracy.

 

[pete and tys]

NSW could not surpress, neither could Vic. ...it's not a political thing.
WA will be over run by covid. No doubt.
Their hospital and ambulance system will be no better prepared no matter how long they wait.
Their vax figures will still not be any better than we have in the East.
It is fantasy to think otherwise.
But WA will have what we have and Tassie and SA. ..nothing will change that.
Their isolation gave them protection but it is in the state now.

 

[Harry]

I'm all for kids returning to school. It's important.
That said there's going to be fallout once the infections inevitably rise again.
Especially with so few still triple vaxxed.


Maybe you forgot we locked down for a long time but with a cowboy neighbour who let Omicron RIP it's impossible to hold back the dam forever.
I'm sure he'd prefer Victoria to be in WA's situation rather than where we are now.

Dan has done little to slow the spread since omricon arrived. It was always gonna arrive regardless of our cowboy neighbour.

 

[mrposhman]

Of the 34 deaths in NSW today, 23 of them were double vaxxed & two that were triple vaxxed. 6 had no vaccine.
So much for Omicron being mild hey Dom?
This is the type of data that needs to be released.

Schools are still about to be reopened with face to face learning...RAT tests will be part of the process..

Did they release the ages of the 23 that were double vaxxed and the 2 that were triple vaxxed?

 

[mrposhman]

Thanks Mr P . One week lag might be too short for hospitalisation but that is great info.
Hospitals are hopeful but I know there is major concern about cases rising with the return to school.
The Age article this morning is very interesting. Shows that Delta still had a major influence on serious cases.

Older Victorians hardest hit

Hey Sin,

I run a 1 week lag and a 2 week lag. I seem to get a better correlation with a 1 week lag, but the 2 week lag has also seen a dramatic decrease in hospitalisation % over the last week. I suspect the active cases were relatively accurate up until the 2nd week of Jan and have gone to pot since then, so I expect the % will start to rise again but not sure it will show accuracy.

Another dip down in overall hospitalisation numbers in VIC again which is a good sign. Whilst the overall number getting sick is a great sign, the 1 negative I see is an increasing proportion of those in hospital and in ICU that are on ventilators, so whilst we have a declining number of people getting sick, those that are sick, are getting more serious. Maybe this is the continued prevalence of an element of Delta still hanging around in the community.

 

[Sintiger]

Hey Sin,

I run a 1 week lag and a 2 week lag. I seem to get a better correlation with a 1 week lag, but the 2 week lag has also seen a dramatic decrease in hospitalisation % over the last week. I suspect the active cases were relatively accurate up until the 2nd week of Jan and have gone to pot since then, so I expect the % will start to rise again but not sure it will show accuracy.

Another dip down in overall hospitalisation numbers in VIC again which is a good sign. Whilst the overall number getting sick is a great sign, the 1 negative I see is an increasing proportion of those in hospital and in ICU that are on ventilators, so whilst we have a declining number of people getting sick, those that are sick, are getting more serious. Maybe this is the continued prevalence of an element of Delta still hanging around in the community.

I know anecdotally that it likely the vast majority of
ICU patients ventilated appear to have Delta ( they don’t know for sure because not all of them have had genetic sequencing done). The other thing is that it has been said that ICU delay after case reporting is typically longer than just hospitalisation as many transition from a hospital bed to ICU.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Did they release the ages of the 23 that were double vaxxed and the 2 that were triple vaxxed?

No unfortunately.

 

[larabee]

I know anecdotally that it likely the vast majority of
ICU patients ventilated appear to have Delta ( they don’t know for sure because not all of them have had genetic sequencing done). The other thing is that it has been said that ICU delay after case reporting is typically longer than just hospitalisation as many transition from a hospital bed to ICU.

Yes, in Victoria most deaths also appear to from Delta variant.
Only about 10% of the 300 deaths in Vic since Dec 22 have been genome sequenced - 6 had Omicron variant and 26 had Delta variant. Average age 67.5.

Older Victorians the hardest hit by latest COVID-19 wave

But there’s some good news in the new hospital data, which reveals patients who had their booster are being admitted to hospital at very low rates.

www.theage.com.au

 

[jb03]

This is the context we have to look at things.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1484858404707663875

What is a side effect of lockdown? How can that be determined? I like Joe but that smacks of making things up.

Kids are very resilient, think it is more that parents are sick of having their kids at home.

 

[larabee]

This is the context we have to look at things.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1484858404707663875

My very small sample of experience is the same. 2 daughters, no covid, 1 has developed anxiety.
But id like to make a few points:

Kids have only been at school over the last two years when there has been no or little community cases

The last term of last year, kids over 12 (high school) had access to vaccines. My daughters high school had one or two cases, my younger daughters primary school started to get cases almost daily when Omicron started appearing. Many parents were keeping their kids home regardless

Home schooling has severely limited covid in school kids, but at the same time resulted in the mental health issues Dr Joe mentions.

So if kids had gone to school full time last two years, then the "side effects of lockdown and school closure" may not have appeared. But COVID symptoms certainly would have.

I hope Joe's experience, and mine, continue when school starts again.
I want my daughters back at school. My oldest has missed so much in her first two years at high school, and my youngest starts high school this year.
But i suspect Joe might start seeing kids with Covid symptoms or side effects this year

 

[Baloo]

Long COVID is still the big unknown. Double vaxxed or triple vaxxed or, as they like to refer to themselves now "Pure Bloods", it's much better to avoid getting infected with Covid than the alternative.

 

[mrposhman]

My very small sample of experience is the same. 2 daughters, no covid, 1 has developed anxiety.
But id like to make a few points:

Kids have only been at school over the last two years when there has been no or little community cases

The last term of last year, kids over 12 (high school) had access to vaccines. My daughters high school had one or two cases, my younger daughters primary school started to get cases almost daily when Omicron started appearing. Many parents were keeping their kids home regardless

Home schooling has severely limited covid in school kids, but at the same time resulted in the mental health issues Dr Joe mentions.

So if kids had gone to school full time last two years, then the "side effects of lockdown and school closure" may not have appeared. But COVID symptoms certainly would have.

I hope Joe's experience, and mine, continue when school starts again.
I want my daughters back at school. My oldest has missed so much in her first two years at high school, and my youngest starts high school this year.
But i suspect Joe might start seeing kids with Covid symptoms or side effects this year

Similar experience to me and sounds like you have 2 daughters similar ages to mine. My eldest is 13 going into Yr 8 and my youngest is 11 and is Year 6 this year. I really feel for those that were in Year 7 in 2020, that must have been such a difficult transition to high school. Speaking to some high school students, when those kids came back to school, some of them were so far behind the syllabus, they went into Year 8 in 2021 and were essentially starting Year 7 students again.

They do need to be back in school, but we have been informed that high school students need to have a negative RAT twice per week to enable them to go to school. I assume if they test positive its like they are sick and therefore no schooling for them. This has the potential to be even worse for kids than if they were learning from home.

At times last year when the UK were doing this, something like 1/3rd of schoolkids were at home, that essentially meant no education for those kids that test positive.

I'm really unsure what this year is going to be like for our kids.

 

[MD Jazz]

Dan has done little to slow the spread since omricon arrived. It was always gonna arrive regardless of our cowboy neighbour.

Kinda pointless raising any opposition to the shrill noise on this thread, its either Scomo's (not defending this poor management) or NSW (take your pick of Gladys & Domicron) fault the rest of the country have covid. It's likely they believe if Dan was in charge we wouldn't have covid.

What is the alternative to shutting everything down and imposing restrictions? Take responsibility for where you go and who you see. Just because something is open doesn't mean you have to go. Look after your older family and friends. If you choose to go on holidays or go to indoor venues etc, understand the risk. And accept the outcome.

Similar experience to me and sounds like you have 2 daughters similar ages to mine. My eldest is 13 going into Yr 8 and my youngest is 11 and is Year 6 this year. I really feel for those that were in Year 7 in 2020, that must have been such a difficult transition to high school. Speaking to some high school students, when those kids came back to school, some of them were so far behind the syllabus, they went into Year 8 in 2021 and were essentially starting Year 7 students again.

They do need to be back in school, but we have been informed that high school students need to have a negative RAT twice per week to enable them to go to school. I assume if they test positive its like they are sick and therefore no schooling for them. This has the potential to be even worse for kids than if they were learning from home.

At times last year when the UK were doing this, something like 1/3rd of schoolkids were at home, that essentially meant no education for those kids that test positive.

I'm really unsure what this year is going to be like for our kids.

Yeh, its a very difficult spot for governments but what is the alternative to going back to school? Online learning until when?

I do have empathy for the teachers as they don't have a choice. I hope they are provided as safe a workplace as is possible. Probably impossible given the nature of their workplace. I hope if there are some that can't accept the risk of the classroom that there is support for them. Both financially and career wise.

I have a Year 8 & a Year 7, I imagine they will be exposed to covid (both had cases in their classes last year) but I'm confident they will be OK - double vaxxed and healthy. Even though I'm in a higher risk age group I'm confident I'll be OK if I get it. Many members of my immediate and extended family have had it, not one has been ill enough to require any real treatment. Ages range from 15 to 82. Includes approx 15 people. The 82 year old was only double-vaxxed and has diabetes. Had mild symptoms, (was lucky I guess?). The most unwell has been a single vaxxed 40 year old basketball teammate (smoker/drinker so maybe something in that?)

There is some interesting reporting from all sources, although the below is a little over the top. Yes some people have lingering symptoms but the vast majority don't.
Have a couple of kids and see how much energy you have left Morgan. Seriously, he can't go to the gym 6 days a week and has to go to bed at 8pm sometimes? I wish I could go to bed at 8pm. I'm sure you'll be fine, although I'd watch out if you see a beehive, you're a monty to get attacked. Lets hope we get a follow up story to see that Morgan pulls through.

Morgan had mild COVID. Four weeks later he's cancelled sport, cut down on the gym and is often in bed by 8pm

US researchers are finding patients with mild COVID-19 are developing long COVID, and they suggest "pushing through" the illness — even if it's mild — could be part of the problem.

www.abc.net.au