I'm not a virologist by the way, a stats man. I would say that if the above was the case then restrictions will start to be released. I'd expect this to be a slow rather than quick process, and whilst other countries still have increasing numbers of cases etc then I expect the borders to stay completely shut.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
- Start date
I'm not a virologist by the way, a stats man. I would say that if the above was the case then restrictions will start to be released. I'd expect this to be a slow rather than quick process, and whilst other countries still have increasing numbers of cases etc then I expect the borders to stay completely shut.
Surprises me as well. Maybe all the celebrities got tested multiple times.
Countries with population > 1 million, tests per million people:
26,085 Bahrain
22,244 United Arab Emirates
19,528 Norway
18,256 Switzerland
15,834 Estonia
13,355 Slovenia
12,900 Hong Kong
12,411 Qatar
12,038 Austria
11,653 Australia
Lowest rate of positives:tests, population > 1 million:
0.27% Vietnam
0.59% Nepal
0.62% Botswana
0.77% Russia
0.82% United Arab Emirates
0.92% Hong Kong
0.98% Taiwan
1.39% Papua New Guinea
1.46% Azerbaijan
1.53% Kyrgyzstan
1.58% Bahrain
1.76% Belarus
1.82% Laos
1.86% Palestine
1.94% Australia
0.27% Vietnam
0.59% Nepal
0.62% Botswana
0.77% Russia
0.82% United Arab Emirates
0.92% Hong Kong
0.98% Taiwan
1.39% Papua New Guinea
1.46% Azerbaijan
1.53% Kyrgyzstan
1.58% Bahrain
1.76% Belarus
1.82% Laos
1.86% Palestine
1.94% Australia
Victorian cases update. Most have been in the City of Stonnington.
app.powerbi.com
Microsoft Power BI
I'm not expecting us to accept international travellers for quite a while. Need to be careful releasing the handbrake - Japan had a decent handle on it but had 500 new cases overnight. They're expected to declare a state of emergency today.
What Comes After the Coronavirus, Freedom or Despotism?
What is the underlying premise behind all of these arguments, whether focused on the immediate coronavirus crisis or looking beyond to the world after the crisis is behind us? It is that freedom does not work or does not work as effectively as the critic thinks it should if this health crisis is...
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God bless America 
However, a few churches were holding large gatherings on Palm Sunday, the beginning of Holy Week in Christian churches.
"We're defying the rules because the commandment of God is to spread the Gospel," said Tony Spell, pastor at the Life Tabernacle megachurch in a suburb of Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
However, a few churches were holding large gatherings on Palm Sunday, the beginning of Holy Week in Christian churches.
"We're defying the rules because the commandment of God is to spread the Gospel," said Tony Spell, pastor at the Life Tabernacle megachurch in a suburb of Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
Yes it is early days but I am results-driven. In the end mistakes will be made in circumstances like this that have never been seen before but it is how you address and recover from these mistakes that is most important. What Australia has done well and proven to be so in other countries is tracking and confinement of cases. In Australia we are well on top in this area. A high proportion of cases have been from incoming travellers and sadly a lot of the deaths have been from cruise ships. Along with a relatively large testing regime in the right places, it has helped us to contain the spread. And the majority of Australians have done the right thing.
Of course Australia has at least 3 times the population of every one of those countries, quite a few at least 10 times the population. Australia is also much larger so people more spread (which undoubtedly has helped). In the end it comes down to how you use the tests. I think being on top of the hot spots has proven to be a very good approach. No doubt though the amount of testing has had a major effect on controlling the spread. USA an example case, they just let it completely go testing wise until it was way too late. For the record all countries except Hong Kong have had a higher death rate than Australia per capita (some substantially more). UAE and Qatar around the same.
Definitely the unknown. Interesting though that flu rates are well down in the northern hemisphere due to the isolation methods in place.
God bless America
However, a few churches were holding large gatherings on Palm Sunday, the beginning of Holy Week in Christian churches.
"We're defying the rules because the commandment of God is to spread the Gospel," said Tony Spell, pastor at the Life Tabernacle megachurch in a suburb of Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
Spread the gospel and the virus. Nice.
it was suggested somewhere about 30days would be required to allow the virus to pass from the infected person to others in isolation with them.
but i cant see how it will get to zero cases. there will always be some contact between infected people and others- medical staff, food workers etc, and so many people carry they virus without symptoms. i think some places have eased restrictions only to have numbers bounce straight back up because the infection rate hasnt actually dropped to zero, only reported cases.
Social distancing plus greater hand washing should have some affect on reducing the spread of the normal flu as well as COVID 19
If we get to zero new infections across Australia for maybe 2 weeks or possibly 3-4 weeks, then we could relax the restrictions.
One would also hope we have some more info on just how long someone infected is contagious for but that won't be easy to get a definitive answer on.
If we get to this situation where there aren't any new cases for a set period of time we could return to possibly going in to work, maybe small gatherings. But it would have to be a phased and very carefully monitored relaxation.
The next steps would be allowing large gatherings and the like.
What this all depends upon, in addition to the absence of new cases and testing a very large number of people, would be making sure that the borders are watertight and that any imports come into Australia are brought in without risk of contact with the people bringing things in.
It really does look very difficult to work out how we ease restrictions without a vaccine or treatment.
Note: I ain't no immunologist or even a stats person although I know a little, did some stats at uni, and we all know what they say about a little knowledge . . .
DS
Initially I think we wasted a lot of tests after Hunt invited everyone with symptoms to get tested, with a very low hit rate. Then suddenly we had a shortage of test kits and they only wanted to see those with serious symptoms. They realised that community spread wasn't prevalent at the time (early-mid March).
We've made a few mistakes but so far, so good.
Yeah, the first big outbreak in South Korea happened in that sort of environment.
Wasn't aware of that but probably not a bad idea in the early days to over-use to get a handle of how prevalent it is. US would have been in a far better position had they significantly tested a lot earlier to gauge its prevalence.
Yeah, better to err on the side of over-testing. It helped that the virus was slow to take off here and we obtained more test kits in time to keep it in check. The early test kits in the US were faulty and had to be recalled, which put them behind the eight ball. By the time they started testing in earnest, the virus already had a foothold.
