Coronavirus

[DavidSSS]

Glad the elimination strategy is finally being discussed. It should have been the goal from the start. Get rid of it and don't let it back in.

There seems to be a fair amount of evidence that antibodies which confer immunity do not last long for this virus. What seems to be happening is that the body creates quite effective antibodies to fight the virus (in most cases) and a few months later they're gone.

This means a vaccine could be very difficult.

Which leaves pretty much one solution, get it out of the human population. The only way to do that would be to eliminate it amongst different populations with very strict quarantine and you need to get rid of it everywhere. It is a very tall order but maybe we have no choice.

Or, we could be lucky and it mutates to something less virulent or less harmful.

I reckon we need to pursue elimination, at the same time as continuing the research for a vaccine. If we don't eliminate, we will end up in lockdown again and again.

DS

 

[DavidSSS]

L2R2R and The Murdochian - just can't stop flogging a dead horse.

The headline links the BLM demo to a cluster, the people who actually investigate these things contradict this but, what the hell, it makes for a good headline and fits their ideology so why not. Murdoch and the right never let facts get in the way of ideology.

DS

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

L2R2R and The Murdochian - just can't stop flogging a dead horse.

I didn't offer comment and merely reproduced the article for your consumption. But I'll accept your apology (and others) should you do the honourable thing and offer it.

 

[DavidSSS]

So it was just a coincidence you chose to post that particular article at random and give it further circulation?

Yeah right.

DS

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

So it was just a coincidence you chose to post that particular article at random and give it further circulation?

Yeah right.

It was published by the newspaper less than an hour ago and is relevant to the thread topic, as well as providing a degree of validation for opinions previously expressed.

 

[AngryAnt]

I didn't offer comment and merely reproduced the article for your consumption. But I'll accept your apology (and others) should you do the honourable thing and offer it.

"I don‘t think the Black Lives Matter protesters contributed. We’re not seeing people who’ve clearly acquired it there,” he said."

Direct quote from the article.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Gladys B saying on 7.30 Report she won't look to eradicate so there goes any hope of that happening..
Batten down the hatches..

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Gladys B saying she won't look to eradicate so there goes any hope of that happening..

They're already well down the track towards resuming normality. Their numbers are still very manageable at this stage so it may still be possible for NSW if border restrictions (state and international) are strictly enforced. But disappointing to hear it expressed nonetheless.

Victoria has a chance to do it properly. Who knows, it might be us shutting out NSW down the track.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Crossroads case genomically linked with Victoria

A coronavirus cluster originating at a pub in Sydney’s southwest has been genomically linked to Melbourne cases, deepening concerns the outbreak could continue to worsen in NSW.

The case of a man from the Blue Mountains who visited the Crossroads Hotel in Casula on July 3 is genomically linked with the coronavirus outbreak in Victoria, Nine Newspapers reported.

On Tuesday, the number of cases linked with the pub rose to 30.

Four NSW cases have been linked with a genomic cluster in Victoria, Nine reported.

Three other cases include a man who drove his caravan from Melbourne to southeast Sydney on July 7, a woman from Albury who drove to Melbourne, and one of her close contacts.

Other cases linked to the Crossroads Hotel outbreak are still being genomically sequenced.

 

[Tigers of Old]

They're already well down the track towards resuming normality. Their numbers are still very manageable at this stage so it may still be possible for NSW if border restrictions (state and international) are strictly enforced. But disappointing to hear it expressed nonetheless.

Victoria has a chance to do it properly. Who knows, it might be us shutting out NSW down the track.

Our numbers exploded in a week. Good luck I say.

 

[tigerdell]

Glad the elimination strategy is finally being discussed. It should have been the goal from the start. Get rid of it and don't let it back in.

How long for?
Its all good to have it eliminated from 1 community (and costly to do so)
But is it futile if other communities do not eliminate it?
Is any country bigger than NZ aiming to do this?

The next step after elimination is to isolate from the rest of the world.
So many industries are massively restricted if we go into this isolation and foreigners cant enter oz.
Education, Tourism, Agriculture (fruit pickers etc)
Do we just engage with NZ ?
It would decimate tourism and aviation.
With the ongoing risk that in the short to medium term it would return anyway.


I can see why the govt leaders have chosen an 80/20 path - get most cases resolved, reduce hospital loads with a costly lockdown. And then when prepared for more waves release the shackles

For my opinion I wanted a longer shutdown to stamp it out, but i can see why that wasnt chosen.

 

[eZyT]

There would have to be zero chance we play Giants at their home next week

The Crossroad might as well be Giants Stadium beer garden.

Gladys B saying on 7.30 Report she won't look to eradicate so there goes any hope of that happening..
Batten down the hatches..

saw that. felt like a change in messaging and a bit of a white flag?

I can see Australia effectively splitting into 2 nations in the next few years. The Eastern suppressors and The Western eliminators.

 

[MD Jazz]

"I don‘t think the Black Lives Matter protesters contributed. We’re not seeing people who’ve clearly acquired it there,” he said."

Direct quote from the article.

This stood out.t

A high proportion of Victoria’s current cases have been genomically linked to that cluster and another at the Stamford Plaza hotel, with Professor Sutton saying earlier this week that he could not rule out all of the current cases being linked to hotel quarantine breaches.

Scary. But hopefully a few lessons learned for future reference.

FWIW I think tigerdell gives a pretty good summary. It's a difficult and unenviable task to manage.

 

[MD Jazz]

There would have to be zero chance we play Giants at their home next week

The Crossroad might as well be Giants Stadium beer garden.



saw that. felt like a change in messaging and a bit of a white flag?

I can see Australia effectively splitting into 2 nations in the next few years. The Eastern suppressors and The Western eliminators.

A white flag perhaps because generally governments can't control individuals behaviour?

Maybe it is simply a case of reducing the rate of transmission by keeping limits on the amount of people that gather in enclosed spaces for extended periods - eg pubs/hotels/cafes/houses. Restricting the amount of visitors to homes appears a big one. And given the recent outbreaks in NSW it appears pubs will not be opening to crowds anytime soon. It would appear safer to be in a large crowd outdoors than a small crowd indoors?

Perhaps footy crowds, albeit in limited numbers, may very well be pretty safe.

I live in the sth east of melb and haven't noticed much change with this lockdown other than less traffic on road.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

13 new for NSW

Figure of around 250 has been leaked for Victoria

 

[mrposhman]

How long for?
Its all good to have it eliminated from 1 community (and costly to do so)
But is it futile if other communities do not eliminate it?
Is any country bigger than NZ aiming to do this?

The next step after elimination is to isolate from the rest of the world.
So many industries are massively restricted if we go into this isolation and foreigners cant enter oz.
Education, Tourism, Agriculture (fruit pickers etc)
Do we just engage with NZ ?
It would decimate tourism and aviation.
With the ongoing risk that in the short to medium term it would return anyway.


I can see why the govt leaders have chosen an 80/20 path - get most cases resolved, reduce hospital loads with a costly lockdown. And then when prepared for more waves release the shackles

For my opinion I wanted a longer shutdown to stamp it out, but i can see why that wasnt chosen.

I tend to agree and whatever approach is taken needs to be global. Unfortunately everyone is doing their own thing and there is a clear lack of global direction on this.

If (and thats a big IF) we do not get a vaccine then I'm not really sure what the point of an elimination strategy purely in Australia is. We smash out economy possibly for a longer period and then do not reopen to the rest of the world as they still have it. I think this is why the government are going down the suppression route. There has to be close to a 0% chance of their being a worldwide elimination strategy, its just not going to happen when you have people like Trump / Bolsonaro doing such a fine job in their countries.

It seems to me that we are trying our best to balance the 2 (health and economy) whilst we find out if we have an effective vaccine or effective treatment and then work from there. If we don't get a vaccine or effective treatment (and even if we do) then that will be the time when discussions are made as to what an acceptable death rate with the virus actually is.

BTW slightly off topic but have we ever as a human race managed to eliminate a virus worldwide??

 

[HR]

Limit or eliminate your personal exposure Sydney and Melbourne people. Even QLD people should be doing it again now.
Don't take "unnecessary" risks.

 

[royce67]

BTW slightly off topic but have we ever as a human race managed to eliminate a virus worldwide??

Smallpox was declared as eradicared in 1980. There's a few samples remaining in some labs. The US and Russia voted not to destroy them.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

If (and thats a big IF) we do not get a vaccine then I'm not really sure what the point of an elimination strategy purely in Australia is.

It's a first step, not the final solution. We'd get our freedom back and there'd be demand for local tourism. Maybe even a renewed national work ethic.

 

[Althom]

Limit or eliminate your personal exposure Sydney and Melbourne people. Even QLD people should be doing it again now.
Don't take "unnecessary" risks.

Everyone should be doing this including people in WA, SA, NT.