Coronavirus

[MD Jazz]

Consequences as in they have coronavirus with all that entails.

And the consequences of delaying 100'000's people from getting back to work.

And the consequences of children getting back to some sort of normal education. And the associated health benefits of social/physical interaction.

And the consequences of those in need (old/disabled/chronically sick) getting back some much needed medical/family support and connection.

And the consequences of those with mental health needs getting better support

No, we should be satisfied that some of these people have corona. Let's hope its not a mild dose so they realise some consequences hey?

 

[IanG]

And the consequences of delaying 100'000's people from getting back to work.

And the consequences of children getting back to some sort of normal education. And the associated health benefits of social/physical interaction.

And the consequences of those in need (old/disabled/chronically sick) getting back some much needed medical/family support and connection.

And the consequences of those with mental health needs getting better support

No, we should be satisfied that some of these people have corona. Let's hope its not a mild dose so they realise some consequences hey?

Suggest you read my follow up

 

[tigerman]

I appreciate that feeling Ridley but we have to understand that contact tracing relies on people telling the truth. If we throw people in jail for breaking the rules that is not going to encourage the next person to do so.
It's galling I get it, but to me it's the lesser of two evils. If you go back to the start of this wave a big part of the problem with the spread was that people who were spreading the virus lied or wouldn't tell contact tracers their movements.

Yes thats true.
If only people did the right thing, they wouldn't have the dilemma of telling the truth or lying.
Very inconsiderate people.

 

[Ridley]

I appreciate that feeling Ridley but we have to understand that contact tracing relies on people telling the truth. If we throw people in jail for breaking the rules that is not going to encourage the next person to do so.
It's galling I get it, but to me it's the lesser of two evils. If you go back to the start of this wave a big part of the problem with the spread was that people who were spreading the virus lied or wouldn't tell contact tracers their movements.

Yes I get that Sin and it is a valid argument. The issue I have however is how do we know we can trust these people to do the right thing? By ignoring the regulations and socialising and spreading the virus they have already proved they have little regard for anything other than themselves; they certainly appear to have no regard for the safety of the broader community. What's to say they will isolate now; how do we know they won't pop down to Fountain Gate and spread the virus in Coles or Woolies or Aldi? Are the authorities going to monitor all 40 odd people in the cluster 24/7 for the next 2 weeks? If they are great but the pussy footing track record of the Victoria authorities gives me no confidence.

If we continue to let people get away with this selfish *smile* behaviour we'll still be in lock down in 2021.

 

[MD Jazz]

Melbourne Uni chief says Victoria must address difficult ethical questions

University of Melbourne Vice-Chancellor Duncan Maskell says Victoria must confront a difficult question: "What is the value of a 90-year-old’s life versus the value of the continuing livelihood and happiness of a 25-year-old?’’

www.smh.com.au

 

[IanG]

Melbourne Uni chief says Victoria must address difficult ethical questions

University of Melbourne Vice-Chancellor Duncan Maskell says Victoria must confront a difficult question: "What is the value of a 90-year-old’s life versus the value of the continuing livelihood and happiness of a 25-year-old?’’

www.smh.com.au

In moral terms its not difficult at all. Heck even in purely economic terms the evidence is beginning to indicate that hard lockdowns are ultimately more beneficial.

 

[Baloo]

Melbourne Uni chief says Victoria must address difficult ethical questions

University of Melbourne Vice-Chancellor Duncan Maskell says Victoria must confront a difficult question: "What is the value of a 90-year-old’s life versus the value of the continuing livelihood and happiness of a 25-year-old?’’

www.smh.com.au

What if the 90yo is a golfer?

 

[MD Jazz]

In moral terms its not difficult at all. Heck even in purely economic terms the evidence is beginning to indicate that hard lockdowns are ultimately more beneficial.

"Heck even in purely economic terms the evidence is beginning to indicate that hard lockdowns are ultimately more beneficial."

Evidence? Pretty sure this will not be borne out for a few years. And longer if no vaccine.

 

[MD Jazz]

What if the 90yo is a golfer?

Then they won't get covid silly.

 

[Sintiger]

Yes I get that Sin and it is a valid argument. The issue I have however is how do we know we can trust these people to do the right thing? By ignoring the regulations and socialising and spreading the virus they have already proved they have little regard for anything other than themselves; they certainly appear to have no regard for the safety of the broader community. What's to say they will isolate now; how do we know they won't pop down to Fountain Gate and spread the virus in Coles or Woolies or Aldi? Are the authorities going to monitor all 40 odd people in the cluster 24/7 for the next 2 weeks? If they are great but the pussy footing track record of the Victoria authorities gives me no confidence.

If we continue to let people get away with this selfish *smile* behaviour we'll still be in lock down in 2021.

All absolutely valid Ridley. However in the end I come back to the fact that the reason why we were able to control this last Hallam spike was because they cooperated and told the truth in the end.
It makes everyone’s blood boil, mine as well, but its a very hard decision and I think we have made the right one.

 

[Baloo]

Also not happy that they aren't being fined, or moved into forced isolation in a guarded facility. But you'd hope the same people that think they can do what they want without fear of a fine are also somewhat bright enough to also see how easily that action can result in an extended family getting the virus.

Here's a photo the purpose built (inside an exhibition hall) quarantine that Singapore has for people under forced quarantine. If Vic had set up something similar and anyone needing to be quarantined ended up having to stay in a place like below, I reckon community transmissions would have dropped off fairly quickly.

 

[Ridley]

Also not happy that they aren't being fined, or moved into forced isolation in a guarded facility. But you'd hope the same people that think they can do what they want without fear of a fine are also somewhat bright enough to also see how easily that action can result in an extended family getting the virus.

Here's a photo the purpose built (inside an exhibition hall) quarantine that Singapore has for people under forced quarantine. If Vic had set up something similar and anyone needing to be quarantined ended up having to stay in a place like below, I reckon community transmissions would have dropped off fairly quickly.

View attachment 10559

This is exactly what should have been set up in Victoria at the height of the 2nd wave when we found out that around 30% of people were deliberately not self isolating despite the knowledge that they had tested positive. If the authorities had have done this the second wave would likely be over now and we'd be with the rest of the country.

Instead the authorities were too busy telling police to arrest grannies sitting on park benches and consulting with QCs on how to cover up their ineptitude in front of the judicial inquiry.

 

[IanG]

"Heck even in purely economic terms the evidence is beginning to indicate that hard lockdowns are ultimately more beneficial."

Evidence? Pretty sure this will not be borne out for a few years. And longer if no vaccine.

Sweden, and I said beginning to indicate, I acknowledge its not actually proven at this stage.

 

[BT Tiger]

I imagine the Dictator Dan comments

Also not happy that they aren't being fined, or moved into forced isolation in a guarded facility. But you'd hope the same people that think they can do what they want without fear of a fine are also somewhat bright enough to also see how easily that action can result in an extended family getting the virus.

Here's a photo the purpose built (inside an exhibition hall) quarantine that Singapore has for people under forced quarantine. If Vic had set up something similar and anyone needing to be quarantined ended up having to stay in a place like below, I reckon community transmissions would have dropped off fairly quickly.

View attachment 10559

We had Dictator Dan comments with the lockdowns we had. Imagine the outcry if this was the standard.

 

[Baloo]

I imagine the Dictator Dan comments


We had Dictator Dan comments with the lockdowns we had. Imagine the outcry if this was the standard.

True, but you'd hear more Farbsie being sung at Chaddy

 

[MD Jazz]

But you'd hope the same people that think they can do what they want without fear of a fine are also somewhat bright enough to also see how easily that action can result in an extended family getting the virus.

This is the part I don't understand. It's pretty clear that the biggest risk is being with groups of people in close confines for extended periods of time. So visiting family and being in close contact poses a high risk. Why would you want to take the risk that a person in your family at high risk from this virus (and I imagine these current clusters have a mix of ages in their family groups) gets infected? We have deliberately avoided older family members since March purely on the basis of the risk to their lives.

Ultimately these are the decisions we are all going to have to make moving forward. How much and what type of contact with older family members is OK? Should you be meeting outdoors only?

 

[DavidSSS]

Something has to be done if people won't take responsibility for their actions. My partner talks of students who visit friends on the way to their casual jobs. I just don't understand how these people don't get the message. It is clear, quarantine means, well, you know, quarantine.

Successful quarantine in history has often meant the use of an island as it is cut off. I wouldn't have quarantined people arriving back in Aus in hotels, I would have found a facility (army camp, function centre or the like) and put them there. It doesn't have to be uncomfortable, but I see no reason why it can't be basic. The other aspect is the staff - they must quarantine with those arriving back from overseas. They could be offered attractive remuneration to work like a FIFO worker, a couple of weeks on then a couple of weeks off, all paid. No-one leaves quarantine for the time period specified. This is the only way to open up international borders safely.

The numbers are looking a lot better:



Plus, the raw numbers for the last 5 days:

Date	New Infections	7 Day trailing Ave	5 Day centred Ave	14 Day trailing Ave
16 September 2020​	26​	36.00​	34.20​	47.43​
17 September 2020​	45​	36.71​	29.20​	45.29​
18 September 2020​	20​	34.57​	23.20​	41.64​
19 September 2020​	14​	30.71​	​	38.21​
20 September 2020​	11​	28.00​	​	36.29​

Let's hope they keep going down.

As for NSW, I calculate the trailing 14 day average to be 6.3, the trailing 5 day average is 4. Getting under 5 does look difficult but we are not allowing overseas travel into Victoria so may be more possible.

DS

 

[Baloo]

Successful quarantine in history has often meant the use of an island as it is cut off. I wouldn't have quarantined people arriving back in Aus in hotels, I would have found a facility (army camp, function centre or the like) and put them there.

The one time the vast majority of the Australian population would agree with ScoMo and Dutton to use Christmas Island as a quarantine centre, they don't do it.

 

[Tigers of Old]

It's just such great news that we can finally see some light out of this thing.

 

[AngryAnt]

Yep, hang in there guys. It's dispiriting to see the bickering going on in Australia when you nearly have it under control. Things are far worse in other places - the only hope for the place where I am now is to have a viable vaccine. In Indonesia more than 100 frontline doctors and 75 nurses have died from Covid so far. This is in a country where the ratio of doctors to the population is already ten times lower than a country like Australia.