Sixth drop in virus cases puzzles scientists in the UK (paywalled)
The number of reported coronavirus cases in the UK has fallen for the sixth day in a row, offering further hope that the peak of a third wave has passed.
There were 24,950 positive cases on Monday, a decrease of 15,000 from 39,950 last Monday and down from 54,000 on July 17. One model shows the R number at below one, suggesting that the pandemic is shrinking.
Boris Johnson and health officials were still urging caution, particularly as the impact of lifting legal limits on social contact in England last Monday has not yet been reflected in the data.
Dr Christopher Jewell, of Lancaster University, an epidemiologist who sits on the government’s Spi-M panel of advisers, said: “We will know more as the week unfolds, but certainly our current model-based estimates have gone from R [being roughly] 1 three days ago to R being less than 1 today (Tuesday).”
He said he suspected that the fall in cases “had something to do with schools breaking up and contact patterns changing”, but he warned that the fall could be explained by other factors, including the possibility that people “may be less inclined to get tested if they have summer holidays booked”.
One professor described previous warnings that Britain could have more than 100,000 new infections a day over the summer as a “substantial over-estimate”. Paul Hunter, of the University of East Anglia, said the fall in cases was likely to be linked to Euro 2020, when lots of people were likely to have caught the virus when they came together to watch games in large groups. “A lot of people might be disgusted by me saying this, but ultimately the Euros might turn out to be one of the things that make the rest of the summer less stressful, as we’ve effectively immunised a lot more younger people who wouldn’t otherwise have come for or been available for a vaccine,” he said. “But I would stress that I would never suggest that as a control strategy in advance.”
Fourteen deaths were reported on Monday, compared with 28 on Sunday. The number of people being admitted to hospital, which typically lags behind infections, continues to rise.
The number of Covid patients recorded in English hospitals on Monday exceeded 5,000 for the first time since March 18, reaching 5,055. Epidemiologists have said that they expect to see the number of hospital cases owing to Covid-19 “plateau” this week.
A No 10 spokesman said: “The prime minister doesn’t think we’re out of the woods yet and has stressed many times before that the pandemic isn’t over”, adding that lifting restrictions would have an “impact on case numbers”.
Yvonne Doyle, medical director of Public Health England, said: “It is too early to be sure about cases falling and the next few weeks will give us a better sense of whether this is an indication of a longer-term decline, particularly following the lifting of restrictions.” She urged people to get both vaccine doses, meet outside where possible and isolate if told to.
NHS leaders have also warned that the health service is under as much strain as it was at the height of the pandemic in January. NHS Providers has written to the prime minister, chancellor, health secretary and chief executive of NHS England, setting out pressures, including record waiting lists, record levels of demand in A&E and growing Covid-19 admissions.
Experts are cautious over the falling figures, saying that the good weather may have led more people to socialise outdoors. The closure of school year-group “bubbles” and the so-called pingdemic of warnings from the NHS app may have led more people to isolate.
Stephen Griffin of the University of Leeds school of medicine said: “While this appears to be good news, I would be surprised if we are likely to see a continuation of this decline.”
James Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute at Oxford University, said: “I hope these testing numbers, which show such a rapid drop in infections, are an accurate reflection of reality.”
The number of reported coronavirus cases in the UK has fallen for the sixth day in a row, offering further hope that the peak of a third wave has passed.
There were 24,950 positive cases on Monday, a decrease of 15,000 from 39,950 last Monday and down from 54,000 on July 17. One model shows the R number at below one, suggesting that the pandemic is shrinking.
Boris Johnson and health officials were still urging caution, particularly as the impact of lifting legal limits on social contact in England last Monday has not yet been reflected in the data.
Dr Christopher Jewell, of Lancaster University, an epidemiologist who sits on the government’s Spi-M panel of advisers, said: “We will know more as the week unfolds, but certainly our current model-based estimates have gone from R [being roughly] 1 three days ago to R being less than 1 today (Tuesday).”
He said he suspected that the fall in cases “had something to do with schools breaking up and contact patterns changing”, but he warned that the fall could be explained by other factors, including the possibility that people “may be less inclined to get tested if they have summer holidays booked”.
One professor described previous warnings that Britain could have more than 100,000 new infections a day over the summer as a “substantial over-estimate”. Paul Hunter, of the University of East Anglia, said the fall in cases was likely to be linked to Euro 2020, when lots of people were likely to have caught the virus when they came together to watch games in large groups. “A lot of people might be disgusted by me saying this, but ultimately the Euros might turn out to be one of the things that make the rest of the summer less stressful, as we’ve effectively immunised a lot more younger people who wouldn’t otherwise have come for or been available for a vaccine,” he said. “But I would stress that I would never suggest that as a control strategy in advance.”
Fourteen deaths were reported on Monday, compared with 28 on Sunday. The number of people being admitted to hospital, which typically lags behind infections, continues to rise.
The number of Covid patients recorded in English hospitals on Monday exceeded 5,000 for the first time since March 18, reaching 5,055. Epidemiologists have said that they expect to see the number of hospital cases owing to Covid-19 “plateau” this week.
A No 10 spokesman said: “The prime minister doesn’t think we’re out of the woods yet and has stressed many times before that the pandemic isn’t over”, adding that lifting restrictions would have an “impact on case numbers”.
Yvonne Doyle, medical director of Public Health England, said: “It is too early to be sure about cases falling and the next few weeks will give us a better sense of whether this is an indication of a longer-term decline, particularly following the lifting of restrictions.” She urged people to get both vaccine doses, meet outside where possible and isolate if told to.
NHS leaders have also warned that the health service is under as much strain as it was at the height of the pandemic in January. NHS Providers has written to the prime minister, chancellor, health secretary and chief executive of NHS England, setting out pressures, including record waiting lists, record levels of demand in A&E and growing Covid-19 admissions.
Experts are cautious over the falling figures, saying that the good weather may have led more people to socialise outdoors. The closure of school year-group “bubbles” and the so-called pingdemic of warnings from the NHS app may have led more people to isolate.
Stephen Griffin of the University of Leeds school of medicine said: “While this appears to be good news, I would be surprised if we are likely to see a continuation of this decline.”
James Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute at Oxford University, said: “I hope these testing numbers, which show such a rapid drop in infections, are an accurate reflection of reality.”
